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No Perot in 1992
Topic Started: Oct 10 2017, 04:05 PM (132 Views)
Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
What would occur if Ross Perot did not run in the 1992 US Presidential Election?
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
There have been some studies that assert Perot pulled about as many Bush voters as Clinton voters, leading to very little net impact on either candidacy. Clinton did have a lead even before Perot entered the race again, apparently.

The infamous tax hike probably was more influential, in that it helped depress conservative turnout or encouraged them to defect to Perot. Just going off some cursory exit polling data I could find, it appears quite a few Perot supporters cited that as big influence on their choice. In a situation where Perot does not run and Bush maintains his "lips" pledge, it is likely he would be reelected, although not by the margin of the 1988 election. There was no Dukakis in a tank moment to crater the opposition.

(Incidentally, I've never quite understood why the Dukakis tank photo was so damaging. The whole thing did look a bit silly, but it seemed to have blown up on him in dramatic fashion.)
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