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Opening Up Japan
Topic Started: Oct 25 2015, 05:16 AM (137 Views)
Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
What would be the earliest time that Japan could be bought out of self imposed isolation? The shogunate was preparing for Western contact for a number of decades and wasn't entirely ignorant of the foreign threat, but there are strong drivers that require China to open up first.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
I think there was a time in the 1600s when they were considering it, but turned back.
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JBK
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Yes, the Dutch actually were the only nation which was allowed to establish a trade post in Japan because they did not try to convert the Japanese to the Catholic faith. I think they were there by the 1600s. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%80%93Netherlands_relations#History ) it gives a brief overview.
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Lewington
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Strictly speaking the early 1600's were pre-isolation. Christianity was spreading in the 17th century which led to rebellion and subsequent suppression. This in turn led the Shogunate to isolate itself from the rest of the world (save for the tiny Dutch trading post).

I think that a few decades earlier in the 19th century would be possible, however the butterflies would be significant. I remember when we were playing World Empires I was resistant to an early opening of Japan because I simply could not figure out how that would alter the situation.

As a very loose sort of analogy, an earlier 19th century opening would be like having the Cold War events of the 80's play out in the late 60's. The personalities of the American presidents and Brezhnev simply didn't allow for the same events as the personalities of Reagan and Gorbachev were able to accomplish. The timing of events were not right. I vaguely recall the my solution to Basil's early opening being that it would likely to be more violent as the shogunate wasn't ready to fold like it was when Perry showed up. It's been quite a long while and I haven't read any Japanese history since.

The historic timeline does fit like a nice glove in relation to the internal affairs of Japan and what was occurring elsewhere in the world.

Edited by Lewington, Oct 25 2015, 03:10 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
It was only about seven or eight years earlier. :P

That it happened to coincide with September 2, 1845, brought a nice touch.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
Here are some of the things I was referring to earlier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tensh%C5%8D_embassy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasekura_Tsunenaga

It was all cut short in 1635, of course:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakoku_Edict_of_1635
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