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1815
Topic Started: Jun 2 2015, 03:15 PM (154 Views)
Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
A trio of what-if questions from 1815:

- Suppose the War of 1812 had not come to an end in December/January with the Treaty of Ghent. Given the events at New Orleans, Plattsburgh and Baltimore, would the United States find itself in a better bargaining position for negotiations that stretched into March, as the Hundred Days commenced? Or would the treaty results be broadly the same?

- What would a Napoleonic victory at Waterloo mean for the strategic situation in Europe?

- Was there any real chance of Napoleon escaping to North America after Waterloo? If so, how might he have been received in the United States, and what would be the reaction of the European powers?
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Matthew
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After Waterloo, I don't really think so, I suppose anything could happen, but I'm not sure the state of his secret forces after his return, and the navy would have been on incredibly high alert.

A victory at Waterloo would have just set things back a bit, the Russians and Austrians were on their way, and at any rate most of the British contingent was raw, suggesting they still had significant veteran forces to use. The interesting effect would be on the Dutch and Belgians.

The US already had fairly lenient terms with the status quo, I'm not sure what else you guys would have wanted, that Britain would've given. Stopping us at New Orleans would not convince Britain to hand over Canada, impressment had ended before the war started, and you pretty much got a free hand with the Indians anyway. Those victories didn't really apply act leverage, just avoid giving Britain any.
Edited by Matthew, Jun 2 2015, 03:57 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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The British would not hand over Canada short of a U.S. occupation from York to Fredericton. Similarly, the sheer disparity in troops makes it unlikely that Napoleon would be able to mount another campaign even if Waterloo went differently. On those points, I certainly agree.

Assuming he did manage to sneak away to North America somehow, what do you think Napoleon would have done with the rest of his life? Would he have lived incognito to avoid assassination? Would he have given up on returning to France or tried to mount a comeback (however desperate)? While not terribly plausible, the idea of the French emperor hiding on the frontier someplace does have a romantic storyline. Perhaps Texas?
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Simon Darkshade
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There were Austrian, Russian and British armies closing in on Boney in addition to Wellington and Blucher. He was going to be defeated, just a matter of when.

If the USA ends up still being at war with a victorious Britain, it doesn't end well.
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Matthew
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There is a certain flavour to the idea of him escaping, I don't think a comeback would be possible. As it was the allies realised the mistake of leaving guys like Ney around.

I don't know what sort of personal resources he had at his disposal, and he was fairly ill, by Waterloo, but who knows, maybe the fresh air of the Americas would have done wonders.
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Basil Fawlty
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The USA did end up at war against a victorious Britain in 1814. ;)

From what I remember, Napoleon wasn't terribly well liked in the states at the time. Even if he made it, he'd probably have to live in hiding. Maybe he and Burr could get together and dream of conquering Mexico.

A French emperor trying to invade Mexico. Seems off somehow.
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Simon Darkshade
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As much as the notion of Boney in America is a fun one (and one I've thought about for Dark Earth) the Powers were not going to let him loose to pull another Elba. Getting past the RN would be an interesting challenge to begin with.
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