| Mexico attacks USA after the Zimmerman telegram | |
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| Topic Started: May 13 2014, 12:56 AM (410 Views) | |
| Jacapo | May 13 2014, 12:56 AM Post #1 |
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I found this on another site (did not write myself) and thought it might raise an interesting dialogue.
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| Basil Fawlty | May 13 2014, 01:39 AM Post #2 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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I love a good sci-fi read. |
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| Basil Fawlty | May 13 2014, 01:51 PM Post #3 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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I was rather acerbic before. Actually, nobody loves a good CONUS invaded story more than I do. This one also has some Red Dawnish qualities (such as the use of saboteurs and fake uniforms), but as plausible alternate history, it misses the mark. More later. |
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| Jacapo | May 13 2014, 02:14 PM Post #4 |
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I think it is plausible but I would question the length that it would take for the USA to eject the Mexican troops and the peace results. |
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| Basil Fawlty | May 13 2014, 02:51 PM Post #5 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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The question is whether there is an earlier POD I'm not aware of or some other developments in Mexico before 1914 that would change things. As it stands, I can't see it happening from 1917 on. |
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| John | May 13 2014, 03:52 PM Post #6 |
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Mexico would have to dramatically increase the size of its own army, which would not go unnoticed. In any case, you can give them all AK-47s and that won't make them good soldiers. Arms from Germany or wherever wouldn't change the fact that your average Mexican soldier at the time was pretty shitty. |
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| Basil Fawlty | May 13 2014, 04:31 PM Post #7 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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In any alternate history scenario, one must always ask several questions: - Is the proposed scenario physically, technically and materially feasible? - Does it violate the known character, positions or mindset of the involved parties? - Are there any logical side-effects or secondary responses that would render it impossible? This hypothetical fails all those tests. 1) In the first place, there does not seem to be any awareness of the actual forces deployed on the Mexican border in 1917. The border troops were not "pitifully small" in 1917, but amounted to four divisions on the eve of the OTL German declaration of war. San Diego had at least one regular regiment as a garrison in addition to a detachment of the Coast Artillery Corps. Yet in the story it is claimed that the city falls apparently without opposition before the U.S. is even aware of an attack. http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/U.S._Army_Order_of_Battle By my count, there were at least 34 regiments assigned to the border in April 1917, with the majority in Texas and Arizona. This gives a nominal base figure of ~34,000. In addition to regular troops, the local National Guard would be available for mobilization, adding perhaps another 10-20,000 or so out of the 100,000+ reserves nationwide. That is assuming they are not already mobilized; in 1916 Wilson called 75,000 National Guardsmen into federal service to police the border after the Carrizal Affair. To be sure, even that number is pitifully small compared to the multiple million-man armies engaged in Europe at this time, but it is very, very large for the Americas. It's difficult to pin down the size of the Mexican army during the revolution years, but COW gives the size as ranging from 50 to 200 thousand between 1916 and 1920. Many of those would be tied up in other parts of the country. (More on this later.) No precise figures are given for the armies of either side in the story, so it is hard to tell what the author has in mind. 2) A second problem is the proposed speed of advance. San Antonio is over a hundred miles from the Rio Grande and is the site of a major U.S. Army installation (Fort Sam Houston), but the story has Mexico overrunning it quickly in a Schlieffen Plan maneuver, presumably within days. The same scenario happens with Los Angeles and even Houston, much further inland. Again, no exact timeframe is given, so it is hard to tell what the author has in mind. Neglecting the question of fortresses and defenses, it is doubtful the Mexican army would be able to pull off such a logistically demanding maneuver so quickly, even with German assistance. Unlike the German army, it has not been drilled in speed, maneuver and initiative since Prussian days. Infantry can only advance so fast in an age before motorization. 3) The TL as a whole suffers from several logical contradictions: - The U.S. is said not to have begun mobilizing or expanding its forces by the time the Zimmermann Telegram is received in Mexico, but the actual invasion by Mexico takes place a year later, in 1918. This makes no sense. The basis of the telegram was Germany's decision to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, which Berlin (correctly) judged would cause war with the United States. Since the Germans aren't going to wait around a year for the Mexican army to prepare, they would have already been sinking ships left and right, the U.S. would therefore have been at war with Germany since early 1917, and thus it is mobilized. It should have a potential army of a million or more men being raised at home. - If the 1918 reference is merely a typo and the author meant the attack begins in 1917, not long after the telegram is received, it becomes even more problematic. Mexico would not have had time to raise more troops or receive supplies from Germany, nor is it likely to have thrown together a coordinated invasion plan in a few weeks or months. These things cannot be improvised on the fly. - What is the status of the Mexican Revolution during all this? How is the Mexican army able to throw so many troops against the USA while it has bandits operating in its own backyard trying to overthrow the government? "No one can enter a strong man's house and carry off his possessions unless he first ties up the strong man. Then he can rob his house." - Even ignoring all these factors, how have the Germans managed to get supplies into Mexico from Europe? Has the Royal Navy suddenly forgotten how to run a blockade? - The Germans, quite honestly, don't have that many supplies to spare in 1917. They might send a few thousand arms and equipment, but they're not going to equip an entire field army. Every bullet sent is a bullet not available for use on the Western Front, where the war is going to be decided. - How have the Americans not gotten wind of the buildup? Even without the decrypts of Room 40, arms must flow in to Mexico, troops must be put in position, and supplies readied in rear dumps. All that activity is bound to arouse suspicion. - The extent of the sabotage mentioned at the beginning is enormous and unrealistic. Cutting telegraph lines is certainly possible and would add to confusion in the immediate target area, but it isn't going to be happening hundreds or thousands of miles behind the front, nor is it going to stop reports from reaching Washington for days on end. This is the age of the automobile, not the pony express. Similarly, using counterfeit uniforms only works so well: eventually people will notice differences between the brown-skinned, Spanish-speaking soldiers, and their white English-speaking counterparts from an American military that is still segregated. - Finally, and perhaps most important, it makes no sense for the Mexicans to want to attempt an invasion. They have their own priorities (such as ending the revolution), they understand it would be a sketchy proposition, at best, and their economy is still heavily reliant on American investment, capital and trade. It is simply not a realistic scenario. It requires individuals to act counter to all logic and mindset of the times, it must handwave away several outside factors that would prevent it from happening, and it fails to take into account side-effects and the likely response of the other side. |
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| Jacapo | May 13 2014, 04:38 PM Post #8 |
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You sir are no fun. The challenge becomes, what is the latest departure date you can make to allow this scenario to play out as written. |
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| Basil Fawlty | May 13 2014, 04:48 PM Post #9 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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On the contrary, I find it terrific fun poking holes in outlandish scenarios.
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| Simon Darkshade | May 13 2014, 10:47 PM Post #10 |
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
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Latest departure date? Probably the 1840s. |
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| Vonar Roberts | May 14 2014, 02:47 AM Post #11 |
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For a German-Mexican collaboration to have any realistic chance of Mexico declaring war on the United States and achieving these victories you would half to have Germany and Mexico collaborating much earlier then the zimmermann telegram as the Germans would half to supply, equip, and train the Mexican army as well as help kill any locals who are opposed to the current Mexican dictator. Such collaboration would have a very slim chance of not being noticed by Washington, and responded to in a appropriate manner which could include anything up to pre-empting Germany's overtures to Mexico by invoking the Monroe Doctrine. One more nail in the coffin to the swift and early Mexican victories. During WW1 defensive technology, in particular the machine gun had far outstripped the offensive technology that was available in otl. With regards to machine guns the American's had the Lewis Machine Gun, Browning M1917 (Model 1917), and quite probably access to the famed Vickers Machine Gun. Chances are very good that any Mexican DOW on America would result in the United States building a defensive line with their Machine guns, and hold position while killing wave after wave of Mexican's before rolling over Mexico. Edited by Vonar Roberts, May 14 2014, 02:50 AM.
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| Basil Fawlty | May 15 2014, 04:11 PM Post #12 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=9083764 |
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8:39 AM Jul 11