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Mexico attacks USA after the Zimmerman telegram
Topic Started: May 13 2014, 12:56 AM (410 Views)
Jacapo
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I found this on another site (did not write myself) and thought it might raise an interesting dialogue.

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Mexico, still bitter about the Mexican-American war of 1846 and eager to stamp out the revolution of Emiliano Zapata (who Mexico suspected was being aided by the United States), receives the Zimmerman Telegram, unintercepted by British Intelligence. Having their army already mobilized and fighting in the North, Mexico drafts their own version of the "Schliefen Plan" which aspired to capture huge grabs of territory and then sue for peace before their foe realizes that they cannot hold the territory. They secretly agree to an alliance with the Central Powers and begin receiving shipments of weapons from Germany as well as funds to buy weapons and supplies from America, ostensibly to fight Zapata.
The US, though increasing production of war materials in order to sell to both sides (well, mainly the British), has not mobilized or prepared its forces for war. Although beefing up its naval presence, the number of troops remains pitifully small.

1918: Mexico launches an attack, seizing the US naval shipyards in San Diego and the main commercial hub in Los Angeles before the U.S. is even aware of the attack. Arizona and New Mexico are quickly taken; the few forces on the border with Mexico (ironically, there to help capture Zapata) are captured or killed in the first few days. Mexican forces march up California and are stopped at the head of the Salinas Valley, cutting off their march to San Francisco. In Texas, border towns are quickly overwhelmed, as is San Antonio. The Mexican army bypasses the capital of Austin and instead heads straight to Houston, hoping to cut off supplies arriving by sea. Texas, notorious for its independent nature, quickly rallies the militia. Houston is torn apart by brutal, street to street fighting. Mexico sets fire to the city, hoping to burn out their enemies.

The government in Washington is taken completely by surprise. Saboteurs cut railway lines and telegraph lines throughout the country, having had time to infiltrate across the porous, lawless border ahead of time. Initial reports had mistaken for the invasion as a domestic troop revolution, because Mexico's soldiers were armed with US weapons and had made counterfeit US military uniforms. Washington moved quickly to lock down remaining troops in the country, hoping to stop the spread of the non-resistant revolt. This significantly slowed their response to the invasion, allowing Mexico to solidify its gains.

4 days after the invasion began, the Senate officially declares war on Mexico. The Mexican Ambassador, who had remained behind in Washington so as not to raise suspicions, is arrested and hung from the White House portico. The Senate simultaneously passed a mandatory draft (Although not necessary, as recruitment offices were overwhelmed by volunteers), and declares war on Germany and the other Central powers.
Naval forces from San Francisco, Oregon, and Washington mount a counter-offensive as the garrison in Salinas continues to block movement into Northern California. Amphibious landings manage to retake sections of Los Angeles, San Diego. Furthermore, forces land in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and begin fighting up the Baja Peninsula.
In Texas, reinforcements arrive by rail (where possible) and by sea from Louisiana and Florida. Both sides commit the majority of their forces to the Battle of Houston. Galveston is retaken and becomes the beachhead for forces arriving from the East Coast.
After 8 bloody days, Houston is retaken and Mexican forces retreat to San Antonio. Well supplied and fortified, they manage to fend off all attacks from pursuing militia. Directed by German military advisers, they dig trenches and await the main force of the U.S. military. Mexico tries contacting the US government, offering peace in exchange for holding territory in Texas, California, New Mexico, and Arizona. The US government doesn't even respond.

2 weeks after the invasion: Mexican forces remain in control of New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of Nevada, Colorado, and California. US forces have manages to retake most of Los Angeles and San Diego, although Mexican guerrillas saturate the hills around L.A. In Texas, Houston has been utterly destroyed but retaken; the Mexican Army has settled into San Antonio, awaiting a longer battle. US forces have been stopped in Baja Mexico at Santa Rosalia and have also become entrenched. The first battalions of US Regulars arrive in Texas from other states. After a devastating first assault on San Antonio, with casualty estimates as high as 25%, U.S. forces decide instead to encircle the city and starve them out.

1 month after the invasion: US forces defeated outside Santa Rosalia retreat back to Cabo San Lucas; resupply and reinforcement efforts are hampered by German U-Boats, who have been diverted from the war in the Atlantic to aid Mexico. Mexican forces in California, cut off from the South, make their way into the Central Valley of CA in order to resupply from the many farms in the region. They are doggedly pursued by US forces, and employ a "scorch and burn" tactic, devastating the region. Minor skirmishes take place up and down the state. In Texas, Mexican forces in San Antonio show few signs of running out of supplies. The US Army brings in heavy artillery and begins non-stop blasting of the city.

2 Months after invasion: Mexican forces in California are destroyed at the Battle of Fresno as they try to make their way into the mountains and join up with forces in Nevada. US Troops push through Arizona and New Mexico before being stopped at Albequerque by entrenched Mexican forces. In Texas, the U.S. army continues its siege of San Antonio after repeated, failed attempts to break through Mexico's lines. Mexico employs chemical warfare (from Germany) with devastating effectiveness. US troops begin bypassing the city and fighting their way into Mexico, retaking the Rio Grande and occupying Matamoros. US Marines land at Veracruz and take the city with almost no resistance. This becomes a hub of landing more soldiers and spreading through Southern Mexico. Indigenous peoples in the Yucatan rise up against Mexico and join US forces, establishing their own independent nation on the Yucatan Peninsula. US troops from California begin pushing into the Baja region while simultaneously pushing up from Cabo San Lucas. The peninsula is taken in a matter of days and the army invests Hermosilla.

3 months after invasion: San Antonio finally falls to US forces when Mexican forces run low on ammunition and attempt to break the siege and retreat toward Mexico. The government of Mexico sends envoys to the United States in order to negotiate a treaty. An angry mob, goaded by journalists pushing for punishment of Mexico, lynches the envoys. President Wilson issues a statement declaring that the United States can no longer consider itself safe until Mexico's government falls. US forces have seized all of the border states of Mexico as well as Sinaloa and Durango. Much other Southern Mexico has seceded and many major coastal cities have been captured. US troops move slowly toward Mexico City, hampered by the lack of infrastructure in arid Northern Mexico. Railroad tracks are laid at a breakneck pace. Reinforcements stream into the country with no end in site.

4 months after invasion: Western Mexico secedes and allies itself with the United States. Mexican forces surrender en masse as the US marches toward Mexico City. The US has recognized the independent countries of Yucatan and Oaxaca. The government of Mexico recalls all remaining forces to Mexico City to man the defenses. Washington still refuses to negotiate terms of surrender until the government has fallen. Planes come into widespread use, being used to drop propaganda and threats into Mexican cities. Angry mobs set fire to large sections of the city, and soldiers are forced to abandon their defenses to put down the revolt. Government officials try to flee and are captured on their way to Puerto Vallarta, where a U-boat waited to take them to Germany. The President of Mexico, Porfirio Diaz, hangs himself in the presidential palace, and Mexico City is taken without a fight.

5 Months After Surrender: Much of Northern Mexico, as well as the east coast of Mexico, is annexed by the United States. The State of Mexico is all that remains of the Country of Mexico. The Nation of Sinaloa runs across the western coast of Mexico, Oaxaca takes up much of southern central Mexico, and the Nation of Yucatan covers the Yucatan Peninsula
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Basil Fawlty
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I love a good sci-fi read.
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Basil Fawlty
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I was rather acerbic before. Actually, nobody loves a good CONUS invaded story more than I do. This one also has some Red Dawnish qualities (such as the use of saboteurs and fake uniforms), but as plausible alternate history, it misses the mark.

More later.
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Jacapo
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I think it is plausible but I would question the length that it would take for the USA to eject the Mexican troops and the peace results.
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Basil Fawlty
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The question is whether there is an earlier POD I'm not aware of or some other developments in Mexico before 1914 that would change things. As it stands, I can't see it happening from 1917 on.
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John
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Mexico would have to dramatically increase the size of its own army, which would not go unnoticed. In any case, you can give them all AK-47s and that won't make them good soldiers. Arms from Germany or wherever wouldn't change the fact that your average Mexican soldier at the time was pretty shitty.
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Basil Fawlty
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In any alternate history scenario, one must always ask several questions:
- Is the proposed scenario physically, technically and materially feasible?
- Does it violate the known character, positions or mindset of the involved parties?
- Are there any logical side-effects or secondary responses that would render it impossible?

This hypothetical fails all those tests.

1) In the first place, there does not seem to be any awareness of the actual forces deployed on the Mexican border in 1917. The border troops were not "pitifully small" in 1917, but amounted to four divisions on the eve of the OTL German declaration of war. San Diego had at least one regular regiment as a garrison in addition to a detachment of the Coast Artillery Corps. Yet in the story it is claimed that the city falls apparently without opposition before the U.S. is even aware of an attack.

http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/U.S._Army_Order_of_Battle

By my count, there were at least 34 regiments assigned to the border in April 1917, with the majority in Texas and Arizona. This gives a nominal base figure of ~34,000. In addition to regular troops, the local National Guard would be available for mobilization, adding perhaps another 10-20,000 or so out of the 100,000+ reserves nationwide. That is assuming they are not already mobilized; in 1916 Wilson called 75,000 National Guardsmen into federal service to police the border after the Carrizal Affair.

To be sure, even that number is pitifully small compared to the multiple million-man armies engaged in Europe at this time, but it is very, very large for the Americas.

It's difficult to pin down the size of the Mexican army during the revolution years, but COW gives the size as ranging from 50 to 200 thousand between 1916 and 1920. Many of those would be tied up in other parts of the country. (More on this later.)

No precise figures are given for the armies of either side in the story, so it is hard to tell what the author has in mind.


2) A second problem is the proposed speed of advance. San Antonio is over a hundred miles from the Rio Grande and is the site of a major U.S. Army installation (Fort Sam Houston), but the story has Mexico overrunning it quickly in a Schlieffen Plan maneuver, presumably within days. The same scenario happens with Los Angeles and even Houston, much further inland. Again, no exact timeframe is given, so it is hard to tell what the author has in mind.

Neglecting the question of fortresses and defenses, it is doubtful the Mexican army would be able to pull off such a logistically demanding maneuver so quickly, even with German assistance. Unlike the German army, it has not been drilled in speed, maneuver and initiative since Prussian days. Infantry can only advance so fast in an age before motorization.


3) The TL as a whole suffers from several logical contradictions:

- The U.S. is said not to have begun mobilizing or expanding its forces by the time the Zimmermann Telegram is received in Mexico, but the actual invasion by Mexico takes place a year later, in 1918. This makes no sense. The basis of the telegram was Germany's decision to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, which Berlin (correctly) judged would cause war with the United States. Since the Germans aren't going to wait around a year for the Mexican army to prepare, they would have already been sinking ships left and right, the U.S. would therefore have been at war with Germany since early 1917, and thus it is mobilized. It should have a potential army of a million or more men being raised at home.

- If the 1918 reference is merely a typo and the author meant the attack begins in 1917, not long after the telegram is received, it becomes even more problematic. Mexico would not have had time to raise more troops or receive supplies from Germany, nor is it likely to have thrown together a coordinated invasion plan in a few weeks or months. These things cannot be improvised on the fly.

- What is the status of the Mexican Revolution during all this? How is the Mexican army able to throw so many troops against the USA while it has bandits operating in its own backyard trying to overthrow the government? "No one can enter a strong man's house and carry off his possessions unless he first ties up the strong man. Then he can rob his house."

- Even ignoring all these factors, how have the Germans managed to get supplies into Mexico from Europe? Has the Royal Navy suddenly forgotten how to run a blockade?

- The Germans, quite honestly, don't have that many supplies to spare in 1917. They might send a few thousand arms and equipment, but they're not going to equip an entire field army. Every bullet sent is a bullet not available for use on the Western Front, where the war is going to be decided.

- How have the Americans not gotten wind of the buildup? Even without the decrypts of Room 40, arms must flow in to Mexico, troops must be put in position, and supplies readied in rear dumps. All that activity is bound to arouse suspicion.

- The extent of the sabotage mentioned at the beginning is enormous and unrealistic. Cutting telegraph lines is certainly possible and would add to confusion in the immediate target area, but it isn't going to be happening hundreds or thousands of miles behind the front, nor is it going to stop reports from reaching Washington for days on end. This is the age of the automobile, not the pony express.

Similarly, using counterfeit uniforms only works so well: eventually people will notice differences between the brown-skinned, Spanish-speaking soldiers, and their white English-speaking counterparts from an American military that is still segregated.

- Finally, and perhaps most important, it makes no sense for the Mexicans to want to attempt an invasion. They have their own priorities (such as ending the revolution), they understand it would be a sketchy proposition, at best, and their economy is still heavily reliant on American investment, capital and trade.


It is simply not a realistic scenario. It requires individuals to act counter to all logic and mindset of the times, it must handwave away several outside factors that would prevent it from happening, and it fails to take into account side-effects and the likely response of the other side.
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Jacapo
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You sir are no fun.

The challenge becomes, what is the latest departure date you can make to allow this scenario to play out as written.
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Basil Fawlty
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On the contrary, I find it terrific fun poking holes in outlandish scenarios. ;)
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
Latest departure date? Probably the 1840s.
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Vonar Roberts
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For a German-Mexican collaboration to have any realistic chance of Mexico declaring war on the United States and achieving these victories you would half to have Germany and Mexico collaborating much earlier then the zimmermann telegram as the Germans would half to supply, equip, and train the Mexican army as well as help kill any locals who are opposed to the current Mexican dictator. Such collaboration would have a very slim chance of not being noticed by Washington, and responded to in a appropriate manner which could include anything up to pre-empting Germany's overtures to Mexico by invoking the Monroe Doctrine.

One more nail in the coffin to the swift and early Mexican victories. During WW1 defensive technology, in particular the machine gun had far outstripped the offensive technology that was available in otl. With regards to machine guns the American's had the Lewis Machine Gun, Browning M1917 (Model 1917), and quite probably access to the famed Vickers Machine Gun. Chances are very good that any Mexican DOW on America would result in the United States building a defensive line with their Machine guns, and hold position while killing wave after wave of Mexican's before rolling over Mexico.
Edited by Vonar Roberts, May 14 2014, 02:50 AM.
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Basil Fawlty
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http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=9083764
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