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Superpower Japan
Topic Started: Jan 8 2014, 01:50 AM (352 Views)
Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
With a point of departure of 1919, make Japan a bona fide superpower.
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John
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I can't see how that could possibly be done. A superpower needs either to possess or control vast amounts of natural resources. I don't see how it could have done anything in 1919 to increase the probability that it could do so.
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Doctor_Strangelove
Lord of the Seven Kingdoms
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 09:12 AM.
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John
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Japan would literally have to take possession of the Dutch East Indies, the British territories, and Indochina. Japan would have to go to war with Britain, France, the Dutch, China, and probably Russia. The pacification of China and Vietnam would have been impossible.

My strong opinion is that it could not have been done. On one hand, allowing Japan to seize British, French, and Dutch territories in East Asia is unacceptable given the West's dependence upon rubber (and tin?) production there. On the other hand, Japan would quickly burn through the added petroleum production and other resources through war and occupation duties, ongoing industrialization, and particularly naval construction, because the Washington Naval Treaty doesn't happen. After East Asia, Japan has to move on to dominate and influence the Middle East...no, impossible. Europe, Russia, and the US would NEVER let it happen.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
I think you are all underestimating Japan's potential. To be a superpower, a nation needs a fairly large, educated population, a world-class economy, and a strong industrial base capable of sustaining technological innovation. Japan had all three by the 1980s and it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to imagine it becoming a full-fledged superpower by the 21st century.

To begin with, you would need to avoid the descent into militarism of the 1930s and a destructive war with Britain and America. If there is some way of lessening the rivalry between the three, all the better. Perhaps a stronger Russian threat and a different naval treaty could drive the Japanese into the Allied camp by 1940. The IJN would prove invaluable against the Germans and Italians in the Mediterranean and a land contribution in Europe could further dispel tensions.

After the end of World War II, there would be a more natural convergence of strategic interests against the Communist Chinese (if they even exist) and the Soviet Union.
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Doctor_Strangelove
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 09:13 AM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Something similar might be said of the Russians, who lacked a proper navy.

The question depends on how well the Japanese would be able to turn a strong commercial presence overseas into something more geopolitical. The old notion of a Japanese canal through Nicaragua comes to mind.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
An IJN that affordably stretches into the 1950s and 1960s can send decent carriers on jaunts into the Indian Ocean and cruisers visiting the Atlantic; nuclear submarines make things even easier.

It would need a network of bases or allies to have the need to project power globally.
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John
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And what combination of events could possibly occur to provide Japan with both control over the resources and those allies/networks of bases necessary to make this happen? I really cannot see it happening.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
It can control resources with economic power and with the provision of a defensive (even nuclear) umbrella. Keeping the Anglo-Japanese Alliance going would be an interesting start.
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Lewington
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I would start with a renewal of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in the 1920's. The Japanese would need to avoid war with the United States or else that would be the end of Imperial ambitions. Japan avoiding the economic troubles of the interwar period would help avoid the rise of the military.

I'm not familiar with the history of the Communist Party of China prior to 1949. Was there any possibility of them gaining a substantially larger presence prior to the 1930's? I would think that a Japanese bulwark against communism in East Asia would be a powerful aiding in preventing the Americans from becoming hostile.

I feel that external circumstances in the Pacific and elsewhere in the world would be much more important to a superpower Japan rather than the actions of the Japanese themselves.
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Vonar Roberts
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What about the Japanese holding on to a good portion of the Russian Far East? during the Japanese intervention in the Russian civil war?
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
That is an interesting possibility. The resources of the area can't be exploited until several decades later, but it is one area where Japan can expand.
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Vonar Roberts
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You could also have a total Russian collapse in the Japanese-Russian war resulting in Manchuria and Sakhalin being given in their entirety to the Japanese instead of Japan having to wait until their war with China in the late 20's although that is less likely, and is a bit of a earlier pod then necessary.
Edited by Vonar Roberts, Jan 11 2014, 03:47 AM.
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