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Chinese GDP Estimates; 100 AD-1980 AD
Topic Started: Oct 12 2013, 01:10 AM (296 Views)
Vonar Roberts
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Just an estimate of China's GDP per capita:
in 1990 US dollar terms
Han dynasty (100 AD) : $450
Song dynasty (1000 AD): US$2,280
Ming dynasty (1500 AD): US$600
Qing Dynasty (1700 AD): US$600
1870 AD : US$530
1890 AD: US$540
1900 AD: US$545
1913 AD: US$552
1930 AD: US$568
1938 AD: US$562
1950 AD: US$448
1960 AD: US$662
1970 AD: US$778
1980 AD: US$1,061

Based off of: http://www.chinahistoryforum.com/index.php?/topic/30715-history-of-chinese-gdp-per-capita/

It would be interesting to see a game where China remained the world's dominate naval power, and didn't get exploited for two centuries by the western world.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
The figure for 1000 AD is quite high as compared to Maddison's estimates; I'd tend to favor the latter, which puts it at about one-fifth of the above. For comparison he estimated the Italian GDP/capita during the height of the Renaissance at around $1,000.

Improving GDP/capita is a very difficult process for pre-industrial societies, even with flourishing trade.
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Vonar Roberts
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Yeah, this was during a time that China had a whole string of tributary kingdoms so wealth was flowing to the Chinese coffers. Chances are however that it was closer to $900-$950.
Edited by Vonar Roberts, Jun 3 2014, 09:55 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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There was an interesting statement from some article I read recently (can't remember which) that said, essentially, the calculated data from across many countries suggests $1,000 or so is probably near the ceiling for pre-industrial societies. $400 or $500 per capita is considered the meager subsistence level, so to move beyond about twice that suggests that you need at least proto industrial technology.

The one outlier in Maddison's estimates is the Netherlands from circa 1700 ($2,130), but it had a very small population for its amount of wealth. Britain didn't reach that level until the 1840s and Germany until the 1870s.

That may be something at play with the Chinese estimates: not that China didn't have a large GDP, but that its population would have been so large as well that the per capita level remained small.

Of course it's difficult enough estimating something 1,000 years ago when we lack rigorous data.
Edited by Basil Fawlty, Jun 3 2014, 10:22 PM.
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