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Third Term Presidents
Topic Started: Sep 26 2013, 08:28 PM (277 Views)
Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
What American presidents would be most likely to secure a third term, and which, in your opinion, would lead to the most interesting butterflies?

There are several well known candidates:

Theodore Roosevelt (quite possibly the most common in AH fiction)
Ulysses Grant (considered a third term in 1880, but did not get the nomination)
Harry S. Truman (eligible to run in 1952 but Korea destroyed his chances)

Some other interesting what-ifs:

Woodrow Wilson - Fancied a third term in 1920, but his health made it impossible.
Dwight Eisenhower - Extremely popular and quite possibly a winner in 1960, though his health would have made him unlikely to seek another term. Whether he could have defeated JFK is conjectural.
John F. Kennedy - Had he survived assassination, it'd be interesting to see how things would shape up by 1968.
Andrew Jackson - Very popular and one of the most likely to run again.
Ronald Reagan - By far the most popular of presidents post-WWII. He could have handily defeated Dukakis in 1988, and quite possibly Clinton in 1992. However, his Alzheimer's disease would have made it difficult to govern.
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Petar
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I don't know for Grant - he was rather unpopular by the end of his second term.

Teddy - if he could unite the Republicans for him, then he'd probably win, no questions there.

Eisenhower could've won in 1960 - an election between JFK and Ike would be an interesting scenario to observe for sure.

Kennedy certainly was popular enough at the beginning of his second term, but it would all depend if he would hold the support long enough.

Jackson - in my opinion, the most probable choice here.

Reagan, as you said, was hampered by Alzheimers, but personally I think the end of the Cold War would also mean that he wouldn't win, or that he would have a difficult job in front of him. Don't get me wrong, I have a great opinion of the old man, but I think that Americans were at the time wanting to move away from the legacy of the Cold War, and wanted a peaceful and quiet American Century in the 2000s.

Wilson... for some reason or other, I doubt he would run, and I highly doubt he would win.

EDIT: Also, Clint Eastwood... Nice. :D
Edited by Petar, Sep 26 2013, 09:36 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Clint Eastwood would have to be elected president first, and then reelected, before we begin to talk about third terms. Which is not implausible but difficult for a Hollywood actor. ;)

The thing about Reagan is that he had the highest approval ratings of any president since WWII, and he carried 49 states in 1984. It is very hard to imagine Dukakis pulling off an upset even with more corrosive effects from Iran-Contra.

All this assumes, of course, that there is no amendment limiting presidents to two terms and that the individuals in question are still willing to violate the Washingtonian tradition. I'm not sure that the likes of Kennedy, Eisenhower or Reagan would.

One person who would have no qualms about it and might pull it off with a different lead-in: Nixon.
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Petar
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Yes, but the political situation in 1984 was vastly different than that in 1988, and even more so than in 1992.

The Soviet Union was still relatively stable in 1984, thus it still posed a plausible threat (though not as much as under Brezhnev, I'd say). The "hardline grandpas", as I like to call them (Andropov and Chernenko) were as paranoid as Brezhnev in the ending stages of his term - and at this time, America truly needed a strong leader who would say "No, the bear is not tame." There you had Reagan.

In 1988, the situation is already vastly different. You had Gorbachev, who was willing to negotiate, and initiate democratic processes in the once evil empire. The economic problems by now became really obvious, and so did the social problems. Everyone knew that the days of the Soviet Union were going by quickly, and America no longer needed a President would could, should necessity dictate it, be a war leader, but someone who could initiate a transition to more relaxed stance in both internal and foreign policy. And this is where I don't see Reagan.

In 1992, the evil empire was gone, the US had won, and everyone was happy, except Europe who had a tussle in what was left of Yugoslavia. So yeah...

EDIT: As for Clint Eastwood and Hollywood stars... Reagan pulled it off. ;)
Edited by Petar, Sep 26 2013, 10:12 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Reagan wasn't simply the Bear candidate, but had a strong economic side, which would have been an asset in 1988 despite the brief market crash of '87. (In 1992, that would be a different story.) Bush largely ran on Reagan's policies, which led to the "no new taxes" blunder.

Dukakis was also probably not the best nominee in retrospect.

Even a six- or seven-point swing in every state would not have been enough to give the election to Dukakis. He would also need to win California, which is less likely if Reagan is still the nominee.
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Petar
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Well, Dukakis was a dark horse candidate, and while Reagan did have a strong economic policy, I still think that it was his foreign policy that earned him his popularity - after Carter's weakness, he sure was a welcome change.

Personally, I think the Democrats would've been better off with Gary Hart, however even with him they still wouldn't have won (at least that's my opinion) - not because of his personal flaws, but the general Democratic stances at the time.
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Delta Force

Nixon could have gone on to a third term if he managed to avoid the Watergate Scandal.
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Vonar Roberts
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Bill Clinton would be a ideal third termer for democrats.

Nixon I'll never forgive for cancelling Apollo no matter how popular he was.
Edited by Vonar Roberts, Oct 30 2013, 10:19 PM.
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