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The Falkands War - A Nuclear Argentina
Topic Started: Apr 18 2013, 03:36 PM (187 Views)
Basil Fawlty
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From what I have read, Argentina engaged in nuclear weapons research before it gave up its program in 1983. What if it had started earlier, and had successfully tested a bomb sometime in the late 1970s? How would this affect the Falklands War?
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Simon Darkshade
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It would need a much, much richer Argentina as it wasn't very far along in terms of real capacity to develop a device.

Possession of a nuclear device by the 1970s would mean a much more stable, rational and circumspect Argentina that would not invade the Falkland Islands to begin with. Britain didn't have the capacity to strike the Argentine mainland with conventional weapons, but it was more than capable of doing so with thermonuclear weapons.
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Basil Fawlty
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The reverse of that is also true. Argentina wouldn't have the capacity to strike Great Britain with nuclear weapons, but would have the capacity to do so to anything in the area, such as a fleet.

Primarily I'm wondering about the political implications. I couldn't see Thatcher backing down, but it would change the strategic complexion of the situation and possibly lead to greater US involvement.
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Simon Darkshade
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If Argentina uses nuclear weapons against Britain, then they would be met with a nuclear response.

It wouldn't come to that, as the US would put in even more influence and pressure to resolve the issue. Despite Kirkpatrick's position, Britain is the far closer and more valuable ally.
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Basil Fawlty
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I don't expect an actual use, but the mere worry about the use would change the dynamic in several ways. It'd be interesting to see what effects it'd have on the operational plan.
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Simon Darkshade
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There might be some sense of rushing Illustrious and Bulwark into service and back into service as quickly as possible, as well as possibly "borrowing" some US assets so that Phantoms could be moved into the area.

The only nuclear capable aircraft the Argentinians would have would remain the 5 Super Etendards, which have limited operational capacity.
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John
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Clearly, Britain would have adopted an alternative defense posture in the face of a nuclear-armed Argentina.
Edited by John, Apr 19 2013, 03:30 AM.
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Simon Darkshade
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If the Argies were in the same position, I don't think they would have dared.
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