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A.S.B.'s
Topic Started: Apr 16 2012, 05:29 PM (1,009 Views)
Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
The term ASB is thrown around in alternate history so much, it loses all force and meaning. There are plainly absurd scenarios worthy of the designation, as distinguished from the merely improbable or inaccurate.

The challenge here, however, is to think of "real" ASBs -- things that occurred in actual history which, had they been read in someone's timeline, would surely be labeled with that supreme epithet of gross implausibility.

Some possible examples:

- The Texas Revolution (RIGHT... a small band of settlers rebels and manages to win by capturing the enemy president because all his guards are taking a siesta...)
- Japan's "divine wind" -- not once, but twice
- Virtually the entire history of the United States
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Doctor_Strangelove
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 10:46 AM.
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JBK
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Germany takes on the world twice in thirty years and both times almost wins.
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Simon Darkshade
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I wouldn't quite say they almost won either time; closer in the first chapter than the second, but not something that would require magical intervention in any case.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was not ASB, but came through long term problems that were visible many years in beforehand. The speed was unexpected, but the internal contradictions were known.

Of all the scenarios suggested thus far, the divine wind for Japan and the Texas example are the closest to a purist definition of 'ASB' as we could find.

I've never liked the abbreviation, or how it is abused, or how it is employed in a litany.
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Doctor_Strangelove
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 10:46 AM.
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Lewington
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1980 Winter Olympics - Men's Hockey.
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Basil Fawlty
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I see people are not being serious.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
Washington's escape was an interesting one that could be perceived as unlikely if fiction.
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Doctor_Strangelove
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 10:45 AM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
The Doolittle Raid is one that might stretch credulity, seeing as it happened while the Japanese were conducting an air raid drill.
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Simon Darkshade
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The Arab Spring.
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Basil Fawlty
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You mean the Arab Winter? I find that incredibly plausible. :P
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Matthew
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How about the assasinations of Lincoln, Franz Joseph (and the ensuing war), Kennedy?
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Basil Fawlty
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In Lincoln's case, it's more surprising that he managed to get as far as he did without injury, given the number of attempts on his life.
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Simon Darkshade
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There was a good quote I saw somewhere about 'A Tunisian fruit seller sets himself on fire. Six months later, there have been revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia and NATO is bombing Libya.'

Now that wouldn't be believed. ;)
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JBK
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The rise of Napoleon from humble Corsican noble to Emperor of France?
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Basil Fawlty
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Doctor_Strangelove
Apr 17 2012, 02:40 PM
"So you just have this Washington character escape with his whole army of rebels, with the British Army and Navy ( the most professional chaps in the world at the time ) not noticing an entire Army trying to retreat due to ASB generated fog? Seriously, I know there is growing republicanism in the American Commonwealth countries these days, but this seems like pure political wank."
Curiously, in The Glorious Cause (Robert Middlekauff) the fog is not even mentioned.
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Petar
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The General
Most of the independence wars could fall easily into this category. American War of Independence, Israeli wars, Croatian Homeland War... The last one could especially be seen as ASB, as it's outcome depends on a battle in which 2,000 Croatian militia hold back 50,000 well-armed Yugoslav troops for 3 months.

Assassination of Franz Ferdinand is, by 1914, less of an ASB than his survival - at least if the circumstances are the same.

The rise of Vladimir Putin, perhaps? :P

"Let me get this straight, comrade. First, you have our glorious Soviet motherland fall. Then, you have a small, unimportant KGB officer rise in the ranks so quickly as to become the Prime Minister of the so-called Russian Federation by mid 1990s, and have him become the president by the will of his predecessor, a drunkard called Yeltsin? I think you've had too much vodka, comrade!"
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John
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300 Greek Spearmen hold off 250,000 Persian troops for three days.

If that happened in a fictional case, in a game, someone would be fuming mad.
Edited by John, Feb 27 2013, 01:27 AM.
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Doctor_Strangelove
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Edited by Doctor_Strangelove, Nov 11 2016, 10:22 AM.
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Basil Fawlty
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I wouldn't say that would seem ASB in the 90's. I have thought it inevitable for about ten years, and others much earlier.
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John
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In 1990, I would have thought it highly improbable, but I was a kid, so...
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Simon Darkshade
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It has been a detectable social trend for some time, with the general flow of the movement following previous ones in terms of incremental gain.
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John
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Well, in the US, there was a huge backlash against gays in relation to the AIDS epidemic. It was really bad.
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JBK
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In the Netherlands it was the obvious direction from the mid 80s onward.
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JBK
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So you think that Finland could hold out against the Red Army for three months, without tanks, mostly conscripts and only a few bi-planes?! While inflicting 350,000 casualties on the Red Army? Then, after that the USSR only takes a little bit of Finnish land. Your next claim is even more delusional:

Quote:
 
Acts of war between the two countries started on 22 June 1941, the day Germany launched its invasion of the Soviet Union. Open warfare began with a Soviet air offensive on 25 June. Subsequent Finnish operations undid its post-Winter War concessions to the Soviet Union on the Karelian Isthmus and Ladoga Karelia, and captured East Karelia by September 1941. On the Karelian Isthmus, the Finns halted their offensive 30 km from Leningrad, at the pre-World War II border between the Soviet Union and Finland. Finnish forces did not participate in the siege of Leningrad directly, holding their pre-World War II territory on the Karelian Isthmus for two and a half years instead. In 1944, Soviet air forces conducted air raids on Helsinki and other major Finnish cities. Eventually, in summer 1944, the Soviet strategic offensive drove the Finns from most of the territories they had gained during the war, but the Finnish Army later fought the offensive to a standstill in July 1944. A cease-fire ended hostilities on 5 September, and was followed by the Moscow Armistice on 19 September.


There is no way the most a ruthless dictator with one of the most powerful armies in the world would allow this little insolent nation on its boarder to surrender. It would be turned into a communist satellite and be reduced to a similar status as the grand Duchy of Finland.

Quote:
 
A major boost to Finnish shipbuilding was the war reparations paid to the Soviet Union after World War II. They forced a rapid industrialization of Finland and the creation of a large metal industry in addition to the traditional papermaking and forest industries. By 1953, the shipbuilding industry had six times the capacity it did in 1944.


Whowever invented this load of bunk is out of their mind...
Edited by JBK, Aug 4 2013, 03:52 PM.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
Don't know if it qualifies as ASB, but I always found it amazing that the Spaniards were never able to reconquer the rebelling United Provinces, despite having territory next door and being the most powerful European empire of the day. In some ways it seems even more amazing than Britain and the USA, since the area in question is so small.

This is spoken by someone who has never seen the terrain of Holland. :P
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Matthew
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It nearly happened, but then old Lizzy decided to get involved, which at least had the effect of drawing some of Spains attention away.

Parma was a good commander though, from what I am aware.
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Basil Fawlty
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The dreadful luck of the Whig Party in the 1840's and 50's has been described as ASB. "God save us from more Whig vice presidents."
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JBK
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English help helped, but it was by no means they key. Finance was the key, the Dutch could draw on plenty of money and only had to invest it in one point. In addition the great rivers, innundations helped. Then once the belts of start forts were constructed Spain really no longer had a chance. The other thing is that while Parma was an OK general he alianated the Catholics in the North of the Netherlands - by slaughtering the population of Naarden - thus removing the last support Spain enjoyed above the great rivers.
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