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Hitler Attacks Pearl Harbor
Topic Started: Jan 5 2011, 04:23 AM (493 Views)
Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
http://books.google.com/books?id=61WMf6XRVT8C&printsec=frontcover

This is a very interesting and engaging book I came across last year while doing some research on WWII.

Essentially, the author addresses a premise commonly brought up in AH circles -- that the United States would not have gotten involved in Europe, or would have had a hard time at it, had Hitler been wise enough to avoid declaring war on America four days after Pearl Harbor.

The main argument is that the United States was set on a course to defeat Germany after Pearl Harbor and Hitler's "blunder" on December 11 did not appreciably affect the decision to go to war. Discussion centers on Americans' belief in Nazi complicity in the Japanese attack, something that tended to correspond with existing assessments of Japanese politics and culture. (E.g., the Japanese weren't thought smart or able enough to pull off so stunning a victory without help, and they were seen as pawns of Berlin.) This made the war in the Pacific a "backdoor" to the war in Europe. Americans held the Germans responsible for Pearl Harbor and quickly labeled them co-conspirators in it, as members of the Tripartite Axis agreement. Thus, Germany represented just as much a threat to national security as did Japan and had to be defeated.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
Some useful bits:

According to a Gallup poll on December 10, 1941 -- a day before Germany declared war on the U.S. -- 90% of Americans said they favored an "immediate" declaration of war on Germany.

The America First Committee (the premier isolationist organization in the USA) exhibited great confusion with respect to its policy toward Germany in the days after Pearl Harbor. A majority of its directors actually voted to disband one day before Hitler's declaration was announced.

Before Pearl Harbor, many Americans said they would not support a declaration of war against Germany even if Germany declared war on the United States first; only an actual military attack would be sufficient to convince them of the necessity.

Indications are that FDR held off an immediate declaration of war on December 8 because he expected a similar German announcement to come soon. This, he assumed, would bolster support for the war against Germany, an assessment that appears largely correct. The December 8 Congressional vote to declare war on Japan was not unanimous (1 vote against); the vote against Germany on December 11 was, despite the preceding two years of controversy.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
From what I've read and seen, by late 1941, the worm had definitely turned regarding US-German relations and the likelihood of war. There were quite a few incidents that could have grown into war and seen US participation in the European War prior to Pearl Harbor.

Finally, a great deal of planning and preparation had gone into getting ready for war against Germany to the extent that I don't think a Pacific-only war could have occured at that late stage.

For that to happen, we need to go back to the late 30s and the Panay Incident.
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Basil Fawlty
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Post Tenebras Lux
There was virtually no chance for a Pacific-only war in late 1941, although it is frequently brought up as a very questionable what-if in AH terms. It is astonishing to me how many people seriously believe that the United States would have been greatly impeded had Hitler not "blundered" by declaring war first.

Notice the Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_Powers#Germany.27s_and_Italy.27s_declaration_of_war_against_the_United_States

"This declaration of war against the United States is believed to be one of the most disastrous mistakes made by the Axis powers[59] as it allowed the United States to join the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union in war against Germany without any limitation."

I have seen this sentiment reproduced countless times on AH.com as well as Paradox threads dealing with WWII.

True, it did play right into FDR's hands. It convinced the last remnant of isolationist holdouts that war was the only recourse, thereby precluding the small measure of dissent that would otherwise have erupted. But the lack of a German DoW would not have affected the war effort to any considerable degree, nor would it have prevented the USA from raising an army to send to Europe. Pearl Harbor changed all that in an instant.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
I figure it plays to the desire to see that great holy grail of amateur AH - Nazi victory! - without stretching oneself intellectually.
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Delta Force

Late 1941 resembles the situation prior to the American declaration of war against Germany in World War I. United States Navy destroyers and destroyer escorts were already in an undeclared shooting war with German submarines in the North Atlantic. The Reuben James was sunk by a German submarine less than a month before Pearl Harbor with most of its crew. A few more incidents like that could build up to a general call for war.
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Simon Darkshade
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
There was also an event where USS Texas could have been attacked by a U-Boat whilst on patrol in the North Atlantic under more confused circumstances.
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