| WWII German Atomic Bomb Program | |
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| Topic Started: Dec 17 2010, 11:11 AM (568 Views) | |
| Basil Fawlty | Dec 17 2010, 11:11 AM Post #1 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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The subject of German atomic weapons is frequently embraced by AH and science fiction writers, particularly in dystopian settings that imagine a Nazi victory in World War II. From these one often gets the impression that Hitler's scientists were on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons, only to be stopped by the German collapse in 1944-45 -- something that is patently false given what we know about the Nazi atomic bomb program. Still, it raises interesting questions. What would be needed to see a successful German A-bomb program within a reasonably expanded WWII timeframe, assuming a point of departure no earlier than 1939? What would be a reasonable date for the first explosive test? The most obvious prerequisite is no war with the Soviet Union to drain resources. This would delay a second front in Western Europe while giving the Nazis more industrial leeway. I am extremely skeptical that the Germans could ever outpace the Manhattan Project, even under ideal circumstances. |
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| Simon Darkshade | Dec 17 2010, 05:29 PM Post #2 |
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
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Put simply, a change of command. Remove Hitler and his issues with Jewish science, and there is the possibility of a 1945 dirty bomb. The removal of heavy water from Norway was important. |
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| Basil Fawlty | Dec 17 2010, 05:49 PM Post #3 |
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Post Tenebras Lux
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True, but that is a rather extreme method. ![]() The main things Germany has against it are the Allies' ability to bomb key nuclear sites, such as the plant in Norway, and the shortage of scientific talent. EQ and I discussed this during his 1939 game. While I believe it may have been possible for the Nazis to develop a true atomic device by 1946/47, assuming the lack of an exhaustive war on the Eastern Front and a generally better situation in the West, in the meantime Berlin, Cologne, Hamburg, Munich and other major German cities would be converted into glass. This would lead to Hitler's elimination either through a July 20th plot, a formal revolt, or the bad luck of being in Berlin at the wrong time. An end to the war would then ensue. Which is to say I can't see a scenario where it would work if we are focusing on German decisions alone. Now there may be a possible situation where the U.S. does not enter the war, thereby delaying the Uranium Committee and all subsequent atomic research progress by several years. I am not sure how this would affect Tube Alloys, but in any case it would not be desirable. |
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| Simon Darkshade | Dec 17 2010, 11:47 PM Post #4 |
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Nefarious Swashbuckler
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Technically, they would have to realise one was possible, as their scientists didn't give credence to some methods of uranium enrichment. That is extremely important - without the theoretical background and the knowledge of a possible model for a bomb device, they are essentially working in the dark. Tube Alloys was going from the initial stages of the war, and would keep on going without US involvement; that would alter the scale and time frame of an Anglo-Canadian device, but it would still beat the pants off the Germans. As for potential German targets, one school of thought points towards Dresden being contemplated, but its exclusion from prior target lists does have some other explanations. |
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