Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Add Reply
The singularity is near
Topic Started: Dec 28 2009, 03:41 AM (1,616 Views)
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

Extract:

edit]
2020
Personal computers will have the same processing power as human brains.
[edit]
2020s
Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines will be used for medical purposes.
Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete. Thus, humans who have injected these nanobots into their bloodstream will evolve from having a normal human metabolism and become humanoid cyborgs. Eventually, according to Kurzweil, a large percentage of humans will evolve by this process into cyborgs.
By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
Also by the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from reality.
The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots--far more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism--become sufficiently advanced.
A computer will pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning that it is a Strong AI and can think like a human (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of a kindergartner). This first A.I. is built around a computer simulation of a human brain, which was made possible by previous, nanotech-guided brainscanning.
[edit]
2025
The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology.
Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.
[edit]
2030s
Mind uploading becomes possible.
Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the "real" world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to "telepathically" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
The economy transits in GDP percentage to more meta services such as reality fabrication, mind enhancement, mental software. The GDP percentile of simulated, beamed, and augmented pornography will increase from 0.5% to over 10%, as production techniques reduce physical production costs of real things.
The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
[edit]
2040s
Human body 3.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) comes into existence. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Organs are also replaced by superior cybernetic implants.
There will be social splitting into different levels of use of reality argumentation, from those who want to live in a life of imagined harems, or those who dedicate their thoughts to philosophical extension. Human society will drift apart in its focus, but with ever increasing capabilities to make imagined things occur.
People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
Foglets are in use.
[edit]
2045: The Singularity
$1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than the human brain. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
[edit]
Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer (but some areas will remain set aside as nature preserves).
At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
Kurzweil predicts that machines will have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
The process of "waking up" the universe will be complete as early as 2199.
With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, A.I./human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this will open up all sorts of new possibilities, including manipulation of the physical constants, interdimensional travel, and doing the infinitely impossible.
[edit]
Some indeterminate point within a few decades from now
Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts.
The antitechnology "Luddite" movement will grow increasingly vocal and possibly resort to violence, possibly a new World War, as these people become enraged over the emergence of new technologies that threaten traditional attitudes regarding the nature of human life (radical life extension, genetic engineering, cybernetics) and the supremacy of mankind (artificial intelligence). Though the Luddites might, at best, succeed in delaying the Singularity, the march of technology is irresistible and they will inevitably fail in keeping the world frozen at a fixed level of development. However, some nature preserves may be set aside for them to live in.
The emergence of distributed energy grids and full-immersion virtual reality will, when combined with high bandwidth Internet, enable the ultimate in telecommuting. This, in turn, will make cities obsolete since workers will no longer need to be located near their workplaces. The decentralization of the population will make societies less vulnerable to terrorist and military attacks.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
topos
Member Avatar
Pro Member
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
A machine will pursue a certain goal. If that goal is the transformation of the universe into a big computer, so be it.

But why would anybody program a machine to achieve that?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
What I was thinking is this, how would you program a machine with an artificial intelligence based on the very exact model of the human brain to override it´s technologically magnified evolutive drive? Any sort of programming to keep the intelligent machine from doing a particular thing could be easily overwritten by the same machine when upgrading itself depending on the direction that this hypothetical computerized mind would decide to embark on. Nevermind the point about the machines growing at a faster exponential rate than what humanity can intelligently follow, which could mean at one point humans would be left behind unable to affect the machines development because of lack of knowledge.

This is of course science fiction, but I found it fascinating nonetheless, I guess I always been a scifi lover.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
topos
Member Avatar
Pro Member
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
I didn't mean that you should override anything.

If the model of the human brain really results in an evolutive drive akin to what is suggested there (transforming the universe into a big computer) then that is the programmed goal.

It doesn't really matter what sort of programming you use. Whether you want a program modeled on the human brain or something else... it's still a program, though possibly a program that you can't predict. But that's nothing new... the existence of programs whose results you can't predict is a well established fact since the times of Turing.

Actually... one such program is an emulator.
Edited by topos, Dec 28 2009, 06:15 PM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Toiletman
fat megalomanic nerd
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
I recently read how one imagined the future in the 50s. This is just the same. The future is always unpredictable since people do not act rationally and some inventions that do not seem very special like the internet were able to change the world totally.
If you take anything in this forum overly serious, you should really go and see a doctor.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Yeah topos that lead me to think about what is actually the true programming of our brains in the first place and if in reality we are not living in a simulation ourselves?

Anyhow I don´t think we will ever achieve this level of technology with enough stability to self reproduce at those exponential rates simply because of the constant state of war and calamity of our world and the cyclical cataclysms that I believe happen exactly to avoid this type of eventual outcome.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Berserk
Advanced Member
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Manu
Dec 28 2009, 05:58 PM
What I was thinking is this, how would you program a machine with an artificial intelligence based on the very exact model of the human brain to override it´s technologically magnified evolutive drive? Any sort of programming to keep the intelligent machine from doing a particular thing could be easily overwritten by the same machine when upgrading itself depending on the direction that this hypothetical computerized mind would decide to embark on. Nevermind the point about the machines growing at a faster exponential rate than what humanity can intelligently follow, which could mean at one point humans would be left behind unable to affect the machines development because of lack of knowledge.

This is of course science fiction, but I found it fascinating nonetheless, I guess I always been a scifi lover.
Humans wouldn't necessarily be left behind. If we figure out how our brains work enough to make intelligent robots based on our understanding of the human brain, then we should be able to upgrade our own brains through implants and nano technology, to keep up with the robots that we build. So, we would advance in intelligence along with our robots. Eventually, we'd even be able to genetically engineer ourselves to have more intelligence, if we figure out all the genes that are responsible for human intelligence. I too am fascinated by science fiction; it's definitely very interesting to think that we are on the cusp of a huge technological leap in the coming decades, and we are young enough to experience it taking place. I kind of feel sorry for people who are old right now, since they will probably die before any of this happens.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Yeah that´s another possibility of the many that could develop. Or we could just be hit by a comet and be thrown back to the stone age.

Who knows what will happen, and as truly as fascinating as this all is, I would have to say that I don´t believe at all that humans are in this world to fulfill such a purpose of creating a technology that spreads like a plague throughout the universe ( as much as this technology could be programmed to be benign to the environment and living beings). I think humans should definitely start looking inwards instead of outwards, there´s no apparent reason to believe our purpose is to expand ourselves to the infinite, all while leaving our human potential behind to be replaced by technology and virtual realities. Technology in my opinion should be directed towards the research for free energies that are in harmony to the environment and allow us to have more time to experience our humanity during our wisely programmed short lives.

Technologically I believe anything is benign as long as it doesn´t throw humankind towards spiritual slumber or destroys the earth. But human tendencies make it almost impossible to foresee an eventual utopian future where everything is harmonic and in balance and allows humanity to evolve inwardly. It seems due to our nature we are bound to follow destructive cycles that repeat eternally. Maybe this is just a simulation created by the absolute mind for the purpose of refining energy through the imagination of a polarized reality experienced by biological beings.

Despite all of this, the fun part of life is that time doesn´t really exists, only change. So the nature of existence being eternal anything that might happen will have a beggining and ultimately an end(without affecting existence itself). However evil and undesirable an event may appear, we will die and eons will pass after which things will have certainly changed into something we currently cannot even conceive. So this seems to be a good indicative that human life has the purpose of having experiences that refine our inner essence. Attempting to have goals that look to extend us universally is silly and unattainable.

One thing I do think we will see in our lifetimes is the passing from TV to virtual reality. I went to see avatar last week and I was wondering what is stopping the entertainment industry from developing a headset system which would allow people to watch movies or play video games with surround view and sound and 3d effects in the comfort of their homes. That technology if developed and economically successful could grow at an exponential rate and change humanity dramatically as the television and cinema did on the past century. This would be the perfect complement for the new world order as this would certainly turn humankind into a bunch of alienated zombies immersed into their Virtual reality headsets living whatever simulations they enjoy the most and thus finally becoming totally uninterested in who is controlling the world nor willing to do any effort to change the order of things. I believe this hasnt been implemented yet because of a determined reason, I´d guess it´s not the right time yet, something else must happen first, surely its not lack of technology.


I watched a movie called gamer some time ago ( overall horrible movie) and there was displayed a concept of virtual reality that I thought was quite interesting. The kid controlling the video game character ( gerald butler) would lie on his room but his surroundings would change entirely to being an interactive computer interface which he could control with his hands or voice. He could then change his surroundings as you change your windows desktop picture or open chat windows and see people as if they were in his room, I thought it was interesting and as always when man imagines he can therefore create it, so I think we are indeed heading towards some interesting technological advances. I hope I don´t become another virtual reality zombie, knowing myself I know I could.
Edited by Manu, Dec 29 2009, 04:11 AM.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Bryce
Member Avatar
Dr Farley Bryce, A.E.O.D.
 *  *  *
Search for the BBC document "Human v2.0" on U-Tube, in six parts of about 8 to 10 minutes, it's in the same vein. There's a lot of guesswork, I think, even on the part of veteran scientists, but as the saying goes, "who knows what lies in the future?"
Anáil naþrach, urð'vás beþöd, do'chiel díenvë.
Uttering the Charm of Making, wielding a star-stone of Mnar with the right hand and doing in turn the signs of Voor, Kish, Koth and of the Elder Gods with the left hand, makes time-travel possible. My star-stone was destroyed and the Old Lore's might has dwindled. Sad and dull is my life nowadays. Sundry sullen thoughts. Farley Bryce, Antiquus Esotericusque Ordo Dagonis.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
kale
Full Member
 *  *  *
These kind of thoughts are scary. We see technology increasing at an expontential rate, where as the moral values of people with access to it become more corrupt.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dude
Full Member
 *  *  *  *
This whole theory has already proven to be way to optimistic, because we already live in the year 2010 and there is no pc yet that has the same raw power as human brains and there is still no main stream Full-immersion audio-visual virtual reality yet. :)

The main problem with computers these day is also not the hardware but the fact that pc's are not efficiently using all this hardware technology with the current software. For example most modern pc's have quad core processors nowadays with each 3ghz of processor speed, but most software programs can only efficiently use one core. If all these cores could be used at ones by such a program the program could of course work much faster.

Today the cores are mostly used for multitasking ( Running different programs at ones on a single core ). So I think the real challenge in the feature becomes efficiently adapting the software programming technics to the increasing hardware speed.




Edited by Dude, Feb 3 2010, 11:49 PM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
The theory is optimistic because it assumes humankind is working for developing technological advances undisturbed, overlooking the fact that there is a criminal banking cabal destabilizing the world through conspiracy, economic slavery and war to gain dominion of humanity and the planet´s resources. Surely if we could scourge away these rats we would be already traveling through the universe by hyperdimentional portals or something like that.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
jojocircus
Full Member
 *  *  *
Manu
Feb 4 2010, 12:24 AM
The theory is optimistic because it assumes humankind is working for developing technological advances undisturbed, overlooking the fact that there is a criminal banking cabal destabilizing the world through conspiracy, economic slavery and war to gain dominion of humanity and the planet´s resources. Surely if we could scourge away these rats we would be already traveling through the universe by hyperdimentional portals or something like that.
I thought I was the only cult member here! Looks like I have a partner!
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Manu
Member Avatar
Med supremacy
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *
oh no thanks, i definitely dont wanna belong to anything you belong.

And on a serious note, be careful with those people, always remember that your link with the supreme spirit is one on one, nothing anyone can tell you will equal the truth you can find by direct contact.
"And you want to know what is the true and causal nature of the issue? it is simply that we have been tricked into accepting the foundations of our own slavery and we have ourselves built upon it our own prison; and nowadays we defend this self-inflicted yoke from anyone who tries to remove it from us and save us from our own folly."
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
miaou
Full Member
 *  *  *
Goodbye humanity,robotos will soon put us in cages or exterminate us in the worst case scenario.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
topos
Member Avatar
Pro Member
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Dude, there is no challenge involving parallel algorithms, if the algorithm is parallel in nature. If so, 4 cores is of course no interesting amount, you'd rather use 10 000 then. And that is done already.

I doubt though that the human brain is such a phantastic device that computer science will make a leap once we understood it better.

Miaou, you might be right, but why put us in cages?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
miaou
Full Member
 *  *  *
topos
Feb 15 2010, 08:43 AM
Miaou, you might be right, but why put us in cages?
Based upon our own theory of evolution,they will come to conclusion that artificial selection/human selection gave them the advantage and that we(human beings) are just a worthless piece of flesh.Everybody knows that emotions are just chemical reactions.So,robots will probably going to be hyper super rational artificial beings.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
topos
Member Avatar
Pro Member
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Exactly, so again, why put us in cages?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
miaou
Full Member
 *  *  *
topos
Feb 15 2010, 12:44 PM
Exactly, so again, why put us in cages?
experimenting on us! and if we stay cool we may become their pets :lol:
Edited by miaou, Feb 15 2010, 01:27 PM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dude
Full Member
 *  *  *  *
topos
Feb 15 2010, 08:43 AM
Dude, there is no challenge involving parallel algorithms, if the algorithm is parallel in nature. If so, 4 cores is of course no interesting amount, you'd rather use 10 000 then. And that is done already.

I doubt though that the human brain is such a phantastic device that computer science will make a leap once we understood it better.

Miaou, you might be right, but why put us in cages?
But now you are talking about parallel algorithm and the main problem with software today is that it is difficult to program software that way. 90 % of the processes in software cannot be divided in parallel algorithms:

Quote:
 
Some algorithms are easy to divide up into pieces like this. For example, splitting up the job of checking all of the numbers from one to a hundred thousand to see which are primes could be done by assigning a subset of the numbers to each available processor, and then putting the list of positive results back together.

Most of the available algorithms to compute pi (π), on the other hand, cannot be easily split up into parallel portions. They require the results from a preceding step to effectively carry on with the next step. Such problems are called inherently serial problems. Iterative numerical methods, such as Newton's method or the three-body problem, are also algorithms which are inherently serial. Some problems are very difficult to parallelize, although they are recursive. One such example is the depth-first search of graphs.

Parallel algorithms are valuable because of substantial improvements in multiprocessing systems and the rise of multi-core processors. In general, it is easier to construct a computer with a single fast processor than one with many slow processors with the same throughput. But processor speed is increased primarily by shrinking the circuitry, and modern processors are pushing physical size and heat limits. These twin barriers have flipped the equation, making multiprocessing practical even for small systems.


Quote:
 
Optimally, the speed-up from parallelization would be linear—doubling the number of processing elements should halve the runtime, and doubling it a second time should again halve the runtime. However, very few parallel algorithms achieve optimal speed-up. Most of them have a near-linear speed-up for small numbers of processing elements, which flattens out into a constant value for large numbers of processing elements.

The potential speed-up of an algorithm on a parallel computing platform is given by Amdahl's law, originally formulated by Gene Amdahl in the 1960s.[11] It states that a small portion of the program which cannot be parallelized will limit the overall speed-up available from parallelization. Any large mathematical or engineering problem will typically consist of several parallelizable parts and several non-parallelizable (sequential) parts.


But yeah you are right that if a algorithm is parallel in nature it is not much of a problem. :)
So what i meant is that this is a big problem in the feature. However processors of course also get faster and I recently read that they had designed a transistor on an atomic scale, so huge improvements are still coming in the near feature without the need to change the way software is programmed.
Edited by Dude, Feb 15 2010, 02:22 PM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Futurology · Next Topic »
Add Reply