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Re-Signing Frenchy
Topic Started: Feb 20 2008, 07:14 PM (622 Views)
BravesFan74
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Jim Cunningham
Chop'nDawg
Feb 20 2008, 09:14 PM
BravesFan74
Feb 20 2008, 07:50 PM
With Heyward waiting in the wings, the last thing we need to do is sign a .265 EqA rightfielder that brings nothing but a good arm to a long term deal.

I know he's home grown. I know he smiles a lot. I know he's good friends with McCann. I know he has like OMG assists. I also know he's a corner outfielder with a VORP hovering around 20, and his K/BB ratios do not support him hitting .290 on a consistent basis at all. If he was hitting 50 home runs a year, I'd be ok, but he's not. 30-35 HR power is a lot more likely, and I'm not a Dave Kingman fan.

As far as the face of the franchise thing goes, having a marquis guy that the word "Braves" makes you think of doesn't win baseball games. And neither do .265 EqA rightfielders.
Kid is 24 dude. Oh yeah, he does win games. He is always the one you see getting game winning hits. He has a gold glove and he sure as hell is better than any other right fielder in the nl east. Find some players that have done what he has at from 21-24 in the majors then we will talk. Most of them are probably HOFers.
He's always the one getting game winning hits? He can just choose to become a superman with a game on the line, despite all of the factors are totally out of the hitters range of control within an AB? He just flips some magical switch?

1.) Even if he coincidentally did have a eyebrow raising number of game winning hits, stuff like that is total coincidence.

2.) Just how many game winning hits does he have? Last time I checked, Brian McCann is the fourth player in history to have more XBH than RUNS SCORED in a season. And he's a catcher! And who were the crapsters not driving him in following those doubles? Andruw Jones and Jeff Francoeur. That just screams clutch.

And are you really honestly wanting to compare guys like Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols to freaking Jeff Franceour? All right then, let's talk.

And no, no 19.7 VORP corner outfielder is anywhere near a place that's anywhere near the Hall of Fame.

This is money we could be using to lock up a fairly cheap Kelly Johnson, who's actually really good, and then use the rest to make a reasonable offer to Teixeira.


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Chop'nDawg
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Class A Rome
It isn't coincidence if someone has a lot of game winning hits. I think you are the only one that could actually think that.

Secondly, support Jeff and what he does. Be a Braves fan, Mets fans hate on their own players. I don't think there will be a problem getting Tex or Kelly.
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BravesFan74
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Jim Cunningham
Chop'nDawg
Feb 21 2008, 01:05 AM
It isn't coincidence if someone has a lot of game winning hits. I think you are the only one that could actually think that.

Secondly, support Jeff and what he does. Be a Braves fan, Mets fans hate on their own players. I don't think there will be a problem getting Tex or Kelly.
Oh my, I didn't know that idea still existed. Explain to me how someone can just decide to have a game winning hit. My little brother is just getting into school ball, and I'd like to teach him this secret magic as soon as possible.

And I don't see how celebrating everything your team does and being content with every player in a Braves uniform constitutes fanhood. I want the Braves to do what's going to be best for them. Pouring money into a crappier Dave Kingman while we've got much, much bigger financial issues to take care of is just stupid.
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whensidslid92
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first of all, to address your point about game-winning hits being a coincidence is just absurd. to say that hitting with a runner on third in the top of the 5th with no outs is the same as hitting in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and a runner on second is ludacris. im pretty sure scott thorman could come through in the top of the 5th but i would rather have chipper or francouer up in the bottom of the ninth with the game on the line.

now addressing francouer's ability:

over the past two seasons (when he has been a fulltime starter) francouer played in ALL 162 games each season. that is worth a long term contract by itself.

next, his average jumped 33 points (from .260 to .293) in between the past two seasons. ive got to believe that number will keep climbing.

next, he drew 19 more walks in 2007 than 2006 showing more patience at the plate (or maybe more respect from opposing pitchers)

next, his OBP jumped from .293 to .338 from 2006 to 2007

next, he has driven in over 100 runs each of the past two seasons

next, he has 45 assists in just three years of playing RF (thats nearly 2 full games outs put away by his arm)

keep in mind to, all of those batting numbers were for a guy who hits 6th in the order. not too bad of production from our six hitter...you think we could do better?

so, let me ask you? why should we not lock up francouer? because he is good for 100 RBI's every year? because he has shown continual improvement? because he will give us 100% effort in ALL 162 games?

you are probably one of those guys who is obsessed with the long ball and would like to see him hit 50-60 home runs per year. well step away from the steroid era for two seconds and see that this KID (24 years old) is going to be a phenomenal ballplayer
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BravesFan74
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Jim Cunningham
whensidslid92
Feb 21 2008, 01:53 AM
first of all, to address your point about game-winning hits being a coincidence is just absurd. to say that hitting with a runner on third in the top of the 5th with no outs is the same as hitting in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and a runner on second is ludacris. im pretty sure scott thorman could come through in the top of the 5th but i would rather have chipper or francouer up in the bottom of the ninth with the game on the line.

now addressing francouer's ability:

over the past two seasons (when he has been a fulltime starter) francouer played in ALL 162 games each season. that is worth a long term contract by itself.

next, his average jumped 33 points (from .260 to .293) in between the past two seasons. ive got to believe that number will keep climbing.

next, he drew 19 more walks in 2007 than 2006 showing more patience at the plate (or maybe more respect from opposing pitchers)

next, his OBP jumped from .293 to .338 from 2006 to 2007

next, he has driven in over 100 runs each of the past two seasons

next, he has 45 assists in just three years of playing RF (thats nearly 2 full games outs put away by his arm)

keep in mind to, all of those batting numbers were for a guy who hits 6th in the order. not too bad of production from our six hitter...you think we could do better?

so, let me ask you? why should we not lock up francouer? because he is good for 100 RBI's every year? because he has shown continual improvement? because he will give us 100% effort in ALL 162 games?

you are probably one of those guys who is obsessed with the long ball and would like to see him hit 50-60 home runs per year. well step away from the steroid era for two seconds and see that this KID (24 years old) is going to be a phenomenal ballplayer
Of course I'd rather have him at the plate than Scott Thorman. I'd rather have my dog at the plate than Thorman. The thing is, every hitter in baseball who is better than Francoeur in the first or fourth inning is also better than Francoeur in the ninth inning with a runner on third. Every hitter who is worse than Frenchy remains worse in that situation. Nothing changes. You're taking some stupid small sample size and trying to make a point with it. And again, I'm not even sure that any numbers show he was any good at all in those situations. I haven't seen any yet.

And..

1.) YOU'RE TAKING PERCENTAGE STATS AND USING THEM AS IF THEY'RE COUNTING. He's brought his batting average up .033 points? Has he been working on that same average for three years? That makes no sense. That average could easily drop .025 this year and then go up .050 points and then drop .065. Actually, for a player with Frenchy's strikeout numbers, those kind of fluxuations are extremely plausible.

2.) Again, assists is one of a million defensive stats. Yes, his arm is amazing. However, his RAA, which actually encompasses more than one aspect of what a defensive player does, is a measley 1.

3.) He drew 19 more walks. Awesome. Again, this isn't a counting stat that rolls over, so I don't really know how it applies (what are you going to do if his walks decrease this year?) as you're trying to use it. And he could afford another 30 walks to that total, and his K/BB would still be absolutely horrible.

4.) RBI's are extremely circumstantial. They mean nothing at all. How does having a runner in scoring position when Frenchy hits a double make him any better as an individual performer than anyone else who hits a double with nobody on?

Why should we not lock up Francoeur? I've already answered, but I'll answer again.

Because he's a corner outfielder with a .265 EqA. Because PECOTA shows us that players with his statistical tendencies don't just grow out of this kind of sucking. Because effort is great, but I'd still much rather have Alex Rodriguez playing shortstop than David Eckstein.

I'm not obsessed with the long ball. Obviously, a high SLG% is the most desirable simplistic stat anyone could ask for, but no. I'm obsessed with my favorite team making good decisions regarding productive ballplayers, and looking a little further than the back of a baseball card (unlike Frank Wren) to judge a player's production. Locking up Francoeur with Heyward waiting for that spot to free up, while we could use that money to extend Kelly Johnson (Oh, how I love the long ball!), who is a much better value than Frenchy, and make a Teixeira offer more tempting, is ignorant.
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Southpaw
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BravesFan74
Feb 20 2008, 07:50 PM
With Heyward waiting in the wings, the last thing we need to do is sign a .265 EqA rightfielder that brings nothing but a good arm to a long term deal.

I know he's home grown. I know he smiles a lot. I know he's good friends with McCann. I know he has like OMG assists. I also know he's a corner outfielder with a VORP hovering around 20, and his K/BB ratios do not support him hitting .290 on a consistent basis at all. If he was hitting 50 home runs a year, I'd be ok, but he's not. 30-35 HR power is a lot more likely, and I'm not a Dave Kingman fan.

As far as the face of the franchise thing goes, having a marquis guy that the word "Braves" makes you think of doesn't win baseball games. And neither do .265 EqA rightfielders.
Ideally, Heyward would take over left field with Schafer and Francoeur occupying the other two spots. Heyward is way too unproven at this point to have him factor in this decision at all though.

As for Francoeur, yes he has have some flaws. He still has a bad K/BB ratio, he has had flukey RISP numbers, he's terrible at stealing bases, etc. However, not every player has to be Miguel Cabrera in order to be worth signing. Francoeur is still a good right fielder even if he doesn't improve any moe for the rest of his career. His arm alone saved quite a few runs last season (a player being held at third because of his arm can be just as effective as an actual assist).

I do think Francoeur can improve his plate discipline though. He's shown that's he's trying to improve it rather than stubbornly sticking to the same approach. There are quite a few players out there who take a couple seasons to learn plate discipline. Look at some of the comparisons between him and Jose Reyes.

Francoeur minor league- 1416 AB, 88 BB
Reyes minor league- 1303 AB, 101 BB

Francoeur's 1st full season (2006)- 651 AB, 23 BB
Reyes' 1st full season (2005)- 696 AB, 27 BB

Francoeur's 2nd season (2007)- 642 AB, 42 BB
Reyes' 2nd season (2006)- 647 AB, 53 BB

Reyes' 3rd season (2007)- 681 AB, 77 BB

Back to the original topic, I have very little doubt that we will sign Francoeur to a deal as long as the Braves want to. Francoeur grew up a Braves fan, he's good friends with McCann (who has already signed a deal), he's a fan favorite here, and he just seems like the type of player who would want to stick with the same franchise. Francoeur might try to hold out for more money, but sooner or later I think he'll want to come to some sort of an agreement with the Braves.

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Chop'nDawg
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Nice post southpaw.
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BravesFan74
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Jim Cunningham
Reyes and Frenchy are apples and oranges. Reyes has never struck out more than 81 times in a season. Comparing their BB totals is a moot point.

And I've had to be on the defensive pretty much this entire thread, pointing out everything bad about Francoeur. I think I should more accurately define where I stand on this..

1) Within the next 5 years, Frenchy should be a top 10 RF. I think he could eventually develop into a .290 EqA guy, which is still just above average, but there's nothing wrong with above average players. What's wrong is overcompensating for above average players, and I think the hype around Frenchy right now greatly outweighs his value.

2.) Last year, we made the most lopsided deal in Major League history. The only way to being to justify that deal is to lock Teixeira beyond this season. Until that happens, Francoeur's contract needs to remain on the backburner. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees flashing $25mil per a year, and depending on who you talk to, Baltimore is ready to open the vault. Having the money to re-sign Tex is much, much more important than locking up Frenchy. If we could get him for something like 3@$15, then that works out for the best. But I don't want to see him signing some long term deal until he shows he can be that .290 EqA corner outfielder, rather than the 16th best rightfielder in baseball.
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whensidslid92
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BRAVESFAN74: your quote about nothing changing between the 1st, 4th or 9th inning is bs.

why are the middle relievers and closers? if nothing changes inning to inning i think closers would be irrelevant
Edited by Braves N 08, Feb 21 2008, 09:38 PM.
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BravesFan74
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Jim Cunningham
whensidslid92
Feb 21 2008, 08:01 PM
BRAVESFAN74: your quote about nothing changing between the 1st, 4th or 9th inning is bullshit.

why are the middle relievers and closers? if nothing changes inning to inning i think closers would be irrelevant
Um, pitchers get tired?

I'm confused here. Are you trying to say that Francoeur can specifically hit closers (as if all closers are under one umbrella pitcher type) better than most players?

Despite who's throwing the ball at him, Francoeur remains the same person.

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