Jun 23
Lead Matchups Part 1
The lead is always important, but I would say that it is even more so in LC when momentum is so essential and setup chances are very hard to come by. I am going to look closely at some of the matchups commonly seen in today's metagame, and see who comes out on top.
For reference, I will be assuming the following sets:
Diglett@Focus Sash
Earthquake
Protect
Stealth Rock
Sucker Punch
Meowth@Focus Sash
Fake Out
U-turn
Bite
Hypnosis
Houndour@Focus Sash
Sucker Punch
Overheat
Protect
Reversal
Diglett Vs Meowth
Diglett wants to Sucker Punch or Protect on Fake Out, or EQ on any other move.
Meowth wants to Hypnosis on Sucker Punch, FO on any other move.
Possible turn one scenarios and how they develop:
Diglett uses Sucker Punch
Meowth uses Fake Out
Diglett has the clear advantage, both sashes are broken (Both having taken 50% or a bit less depending on damage rolls) and Diglett outspeeds and can either KO with Earthquake or sacrifice itself to set up Stealth Rock, though FO+U-Turn will only 2KO extremely rarely, FO followed by Bite will always 2KO.
Diglett uses Sucker Punch, it fails
Meowth uses Hypnosis
If Hypnosis hits Meowth gets a free U-Turn out. If Hypnosis misses its back to square one, with slightly less PP.
Diglett uses Earthquake
Meowth uses Hypnosis
If Hypnosis hits Meowth gets to U-turn out but has been severely hurt, but if it misses Diglett can KO Meowth next turn with no risk or get SR up at the cost of sash/risked sleep.
If Diglett uses Protect against any move.
Diglett can get a stronger first turn hit on Meowth than Sucker Punch would provide (and no risk of the move failing due to Hypnosis), or get up Stealth Rock. Meowth can always either get out via U-Turn or risk Hypnosis, but either way its Sash will be broken and it will take a big hit or Stealth Rock will go up.
Overall
Diglett will normally come out on top, either KOing or getting SR and breaking Meowth's sash up depending on the players choice, unless the Meowth player wins prediction wars and/or gets lucky with Hypnosis. It is important to note that Meowth can't switch out and is outsped, and generally will not manage the 2KO with FO+U-Turn (though Bite+FO will always 2KO).
Diglett Vs LeadDour
Houndour can gain little real advantage by Protecting (other than a prediction advantage and draining one PP, but the Diglett player can change moves easily), and could give Diglett a totally free SR. If SR is already down its a good idea to abuse it.
Diglett wants to use Sucker Punch on Houndour's Sucker Punch to break the Sash, or Stealth Rock for helpful support and normally EQ on Overheat unless getting SR up is valued more than Diglett.
Possible turn one scenarios and how they develop:
Diglett uses EQ
Houndour uses Sucker Punch OR Overheat
Both are left at 1HP, Houndour losses to SP if it tries to attack, Diglett can switch to EQ and KO at any point unless Houndour switches to Sucker Punch on the same turn. In short, Diglett wins unless it loses an 8 turn prediction war against Protect.
Diglett uses SR
Houndour uses Overheat
Houndour can KO with Overheat (at the risk of being taken to 1HP by EQ), or try to outpredict with SP against EQ. Diglett breaks the sash Houndour is in a much harder position.
Diglett uses Sucker Punch
Houndour uses Sucker Punch, it fails
Diglett is in a winning position here with a intact sash and able to KO Houndour whatever it does, however if it EQs against a SP it will lose its sash. Diglett has the option of using SR and negating Sucker Punch, but if Houndour uses Overheat against SR then it is in a reasonably strong position as Diglett's Sucker Punch will do only 22.73% - 31.82% and has 7 PP remaining, and Houndour can use Protect to attempt a PP stall. If Diglett uses EQ while Houndour uses SP Houndour would win. Basically it turns into a massive prediction war.
Diglett uses Sucker Punch
Houndour uses Overheat
Diglett is at 1HP, Houndour has ~75% left. Houndour can push Diglett into a prediction war, being able to KO with Sucker Punch if Diggy uses EQ or with Overheat if Diglett uses SP. Diglett needs to hit three or four times more with Sucker Punch to KO, but will 1KO with EQ. A prediction war in which Houndour has the advantage.
Overall
Diglett seems to have the advantage, but this matchup will often become an impossibly complicated prediction war so watch out. Houndour should normally use Overheat first, unless it wants to waste a PP of Diglett's Sucker Punch.
Meowth Vs Houndour
Houndour is in a pretty strong position against Meowth, Protect negates Fake Out (though gives a free switch), Early Bird makes Hypnosis even less reliable than against other Pokemon and it can deal massive blows to Meowth with Overheat or SP. Normally best of Protecting turn one to negate FO.
Meowth is in trouble against Houndour and will often either FO to scout or switch, but I can't go into possible switch-ins here. It has U-turn which can deal a decent chunk of damage as it gets out.
Possible turn one scenarios and how they develop:
Houndour uses Protect
Meowth uses Fake Out/U-turn
Meowth can't win this even with sleep unless it has Return, Bite is resisted so it will often U-turn out doing ~45% and breaking the sash, sometimes sleeping Houndour first.
First turn Houndour can Protect to block FO or try to hit a predicted switch with Overheat, once FO is used up Houndour can either SP to hurt Meowth before it gets out but risk Hypnosis or throw out an Overheat.
Meowth switches to something
Houndour uses Protect
Here the Meowth user ends up with the advantage normally, so long as their team is well made and has something effective against Houndour.
Meowth switches to something
Houndour uses Overheat
The switchin may take a chunk of damage, Meowth fled, Dour won that matchup.
Meowth uses U-turn
Houndour uses Overheat
Houndour loses its sash, what happens next depends on what was switched in but most will take a decent amount of damage.
Meowth uses Fake Out
Houndour fails to use Overheat/SP
Same as Protect/FO except that Houndour is now a little weaker.
Overall
Houndour will almost always force Meowth out, the prediction wars decide who gets to keep sashes and if the switchin gets in for free. I can't go into great detail here as the matchup generally ends quickly with a switch or U-turn.
For reference the effectiveness of trying to sleep Houndour and get out:
Chance of Hypnosis hitting first turn (saves your sash): 60%
Chance for Hypnosis to hit at least once over two turns (stops you from being entirely wasted): 84%
Chance of not waking up directly after being slept (giving a free switch): 75%
Chance of two turn sleep (giving your switchin a free turn): 25%
Assuming you Hypnosis at every chance and U-turn out directly after sleep, overall chances of:
You losing Meowth for nothing: 16%
You sleeping it then your switch is hit by a move as it comes in (no better than just directly switching): 21%
Sleeping Houndour then getting a free switch then waking up next turn (effectively the same as switching on a Protect): 42%
Sleeping Houndour, getting a free switch then a free turn: 21%
Coming next sometime (maybe):
Voltorb@Focus Sash
Thunderbolt
HP Ice
Explosion
Protect/Taunt (probably only one)
Snover@Leftovers
Ice Shard
Protect
Leech Seed
Substitute
Wailmer@Choice Scarf
Water Spout
Ice Beam
HP-Ground
Hydro Pump
Apr 21
My new blog!
So, this is my first attempt at a blog. It seems everyone is doing them these days.. but anyway here is a place I can post random ramblings about LC theory, ideas and musings. As well as sets that seem good, news about what's going on around the LCF or anywhere else LC related and probably other things that don't particularly want to go anywhere else.
If you have ideas about things I should write about, talk to me on the Cap server.
Edit: I will not be announcing this blog until there is something interesting up, but if you find it its ok to tell others.
7:49 PM Nov 24
