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[ti]Red ribbon[/ti]Prediction Contest
Topic Started: Feb 7 2013, 01:36 AM (1,021 Views)
CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

UPDATE: As of 8th May 2013, :red-ribbon: Red Ribbons are awarded in this contest, instead of :yellow-ribbon: Yellow Ribbons.



This is like a revival of the Sports Prediction Contest, with the difference that the rounds won't necessarily be about sports. They could be about absolutely anything! (Well, almost anything; see later for that :P )

Basically, the format is as follows: I ask you to predict something about a future event (for example, the winner of a talent contest or a sporting event, or how many votes a specific candidate will win at an election). The person who comes closest will win some posts (and maybe even a ribbon), and they get to host the next round if they choose. They get to pick the next event, subject to the following rules:

1) There must be a well-defined end point, which must occur within a week of the beginning of the round (so, nothing open-ended, such as the next earthquake to exceed 8.5MW);
2) It must be possible to quantify how close people's guesses are (so, nothing like "Guess what colour Kim Kardashian's next dress will be");
3) It must be outside the control of the host and all of the competitors (so, nothing like "I'm going to roll a die - guess what number it will land on").


So, this is the first round - which is going to be about film. I'm going to ask you to predict two things:

1) Which film will be the top box office earner for the weekend February 8-10, 2013?
2) What will its box office gross be for that weekend?


The following prizes will be awarded based on the accuracy of the guess for the top box office gross; they will be doubled for anyone who correctly predicts which film tops the list:
5 posts for being within $3,000,000 of the actual amount;
10 posts for being within $1,000,000 of the actual amount;
15 posts for being within $500,000 of the actual amount;
30 posts for being within $200,000 of the actual amount;
:yellow-ribbon: A Yellow Ribbon for the winner, if they were within $200,000 of the actual amount and got the correct film.

Here are two links you might find useful, especially if you don't know much about films:
Film releases during February 2013
Box office results for previous weekends

Good luck!
Edited by CJ, May 8 2013, 10:21 PM.
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Pyrite
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Just as Planned

Complete guess: "Warm Bodies" with $30,000,000
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

My guess: "Identity Thief" with $25,000,000.
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

Actual result: "Identity Thief" was the top-grossing film with $34,551,025. Therefore, the results were as follows:

1st: PL-Stokie ($4,551,025 under)
2nd: CJ ($9,551,025 under)

A bit of a hollow victory for Daniel, though, since both of us were too far away to win any prizes :P . Anyway, congrats Daniel - you can do the next round if you want :) !
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

It's been three days, so I'll start another round:

:cyprus: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21492308 :cyprus:

The presidential election in Cyprus has gone to a run-off, after nobody won more than 50% of the vote in the first round. The article contains more information, but the two candidates in the run-off are:
  • Nicos Anastasiades (a conservative, and the favourite)
  • Stavros Malas (backed by the left-wing Akel party)
Simply guess what percentage of the vote Mr Anastasiades will secure in the run-off. The prize structure is a little simpler this time:

5 posts for being within 5% of the actual percentage;
15 posts for being within 3% of the actual percentage;
30 posts for being within 2% of the actual percentage;
:yellow-ribbon: A Yellow Ribbon for the winner, if they are within 1% of the actual percentage.

My guess is that Mr Anastasiades will win 57.51% of the vote.
Good luck!
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Pyrite
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Just as Planned

My guess: Nicos Anastasiades with 51.25% of the vote.
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

WTF O_O ?????

The actual result is: Nicos Anastasiades has won with 57.48% of the vote. Therefore, the results are:

1st place + :yellow-ribbon: Yellow Ribbon: CJ (Over by 0.03%)
2nd place: PL-Stokie (Under by 6.23%)

Wow....I never expected that!!!!
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Pyrite
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Just as Planned

I don't think we're going to get a result better than that, somehow :P .
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

Now I wish it had been only to the nearest .1%, instead of the nearest .01%. Then I would have got it right on the nose :P .

I'll see what I can find for the next round - or anyone else can, if they get there first!

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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

OK, my last one was against the rules (and besides, this contest is meant to be about educated predictions, not completely random guessing), so here's a different one:

:tennis-ball: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_BNP_Paribas_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_Singles :tennis-ball:

The 2013 BNP Paribas Open is about to get underway, and I'd like you to predict which eight players will still be in the tournament in the quarter-finals (that will be one player from each section); I've linked to the draw above so that you can see who's playing.

A couple of special rules for this:
  • This round closes when the Second Round has been completed;
  • Your prediction can't just be the top 8 seeds (that's boring and too easy).
You'll receive posts for each player you correctly predict will make it to the quarter-finals, as follows:

Prize structure


So, I predict that the eight quarter-finalists will be:

Section 1 - :serbia: Novak Djokovic; Section 2 - :canada: Milos Raonic; Section 3 - :uk: Andy Murray; Section 4 - :spain: Nicolás Almagro;
Section 5 - :czech-republic: Tomas Berdych; Section 6 - :spain: David Ferrer; Section 7 - :spain: Rafael Nadal; Section 8 - :switzerland: Roger Federer
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Pyrite
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Just as Planned

My predictions:

Section 1 - :serbia: Novak Djokovic; Section 2 - :france: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; Section 3 - :uk: Andy Murray; Section 4 - :germany: Tommy Haas;
Section 5 - :france: Richard Gasquet; Section 6 - :spain: David Ferrer; Section 7 - :spain: Rafael Nadal; Section 8 - :switzerland: Stanislas Wawrinka
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

Interesting prediction. What's going to happen to Federer, then :P ?
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Pyrite
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Just as Planned

Julien Benneteau is going to beat Federer. Then Wawrinka will beat him. At least, that's what I think
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

This round of the contest has now closed for new entries.

(Of the ones we predicted, all are still in, apart from David Ferrer)
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

And the actual results were:

Section 1: :serbia: Novak Djokovic
Section 2: :france: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Section 3: :uk: Andy Murray
Section 4: :argentina: Juan Martín del Potro
Section 5: :czech-republic: Tomas Berdych
Section 6: :south-africa: Kevin Anderson (There were 30 posts to be had here!)
Section 7: :spain: Rafael Nadal
Section 8: :switzerland: Roger Federer

Final scores were:
CJ: 10 posts
PL-Stokie: 8 posts

Well done to me, I guess :P ! The next round will start tomorrow.

EDIT: OK, it won't. Anyone can do the next round.
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

We haven't had a music round yet, so here we go:

Can you predict what the top 5 songs on the Billboard Hot 100 will be when it gets updated this Saturday? You win posts for each of your five songs that appears somewhere in the top 5, as follows:

Prize structure



Here's my prediction:

#1: Can't Hold Us
#2: Mirrors
#3: Just Give Me A Reason
#4: Stay
#5: I Love It

Good luck!
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

Well, the actual results are:

#1: Can't Hold Us
#2: Just Give Me a Reason
#3: Mirrors
#4: When I Was Your Man
#5: Stay

Pretty boring. Same top 5 as last week, with #4 and #5 switched.

Anyone can do the next one.
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CJ
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A very minor case of serious brain damage

Since nobody's really using this any more, I'll archive it. If anyone wants to re-start it, they're free to do so.
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