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| "The US Collapse of 2009" | |
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| Topic Started: Feb 28 2009, 03:50 AM (448 Views) | |
| Sayf Udeen Ismaeel | Jun 24 2009, 01:34 PM Post #21 |
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Experts: Global recession is close to a bottom PARIS - The deepest global recession in over 60 years is close to bottoming out, but recovery will be weak unless governments do more to remove uncertainty over banks’ balance sheets, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Wednesday. In its half-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based organization said it expects its member countries’ economies to shrink by 4.1 percent this year, with only government rescue measures heading off an even worse decline. That is a slight improvement from the OECD’s last forecast in March of a 4.3 percent decline this year and is the group’s first upward revision to its forecasts in two years, Secretary General Angel Gurria said at a news conference in Paris “A really disastrous outcome has become more of a remote risk,” said OECD acting economics department head Jorgen Elmeskov. But the recovery “is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time,” Gurria said. The OECD’s slightly less pessimistic outlook contrasted with the World Bank’s decision Monday to slash its own economic forecast. The Washington-based multilateral lender said global output will contract 2.9 percent this year, worse than its view in March of only a 1.7 percent drop. The bank cited much deeper and broader economic damage in developing countries. The OECD forecast applies only to developed countries, where key growth areas like manufacturing and household spending have been hit particularly hard by the economic crisis. Both organizations agree, however, that the recovery “will be weak, and that’s the main story,” said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics in London. The OECD now expects the US economy to shrink by 2.8 percent this year after 1.1 percent growth in 2008. Japanese output is likely to contract by 6.8 percent this year and the 16 nation euro-zone will likely shrink by 4.8 percent. The OECD forecast a return to growth in all three regions next year, with overall growth across its membership expected to average 0.7 percent in 2010, according to the report. That also represents an improvement from the OECD’s last forecast of a 0.1 percent contraction next year. World economic growth, which the OECD defines as its members plus Brazil, Russia, India and China, will rebound to 2.3 percent next year from a decline of 2.2 percent in 2009, according to the latest OECD forecast. The speed of an economic rebound will vary across the globe. China already seems to be recovering, but in the U.S. the end of fiscal stimulus measures and the continued need to repair banks’ balance sheets means recovery there “could be uncharacteristically weak and insufficient” to offset unemployment of around 10 percent, the OECD said. Recovery may also be slow in the euro-zone, the OECD said, as rising unemployment weighs on consumer spending. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31521098/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/ |
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| Sayf Udeen Ismaeel | Jul 20 2009, 07:32 AM Post #22 |
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Majority of Australians says worst of crisis is over MORE than half of Australians believe the worst of the global financial crisis is over and that the economy is starting to improve, a poll shows. The Essential Media poll found that 52 per cent of those surveyed thought the worst of the downturn was over. Close to a third of respondents (31 per cent) were a little more pessimistic and thought Australia's economy would get worse. Labor voters were more upbeat about the economy with 63 per cent saying they believed Australia was over the worst of the downturn and that things were starting to improve, compared to 52 per cent of coalition voters. Green voters were less optimistic with 45 per cent saying they believed that economic conditions would worsen before there was a recovery. The poll, conducted from July 14 to July 19, also showed there had been little change in the voting intentions of Australians. On a two-party preferred basis, the coalition has 44 per cent support, up one point on the previous poll, while support for Labor fell by one point to 56 per cent. http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25808866-31037,00.html |
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| Sayf Udeen Ismaeel | Aug 4 2009, 06:13 AM Post #23 |
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World will rely less on US - Swan THE role of the US in driving the world economy will diminish once the global financial crisis subsides, Treasurer Wayne Swan says. In an address - entitled Foreign Investment and the Long Road to Recovery - to a Sydney forum, Mr Swan also announced the Government would repeal foreign investment restrictions on new enterprises. Emerging economies would become more important consumer markets as the global economy returned to prosperity, he said. The world economy would no longer be able to rely so heavily on the American consumer as the primary driver of growth. "Emerging economies will increasingly generate their own internal demand." The US is Australia's fifth biggest export market, behind Japan, China, South Korea and India. Mr Swan also announced that the Rudd Government would repeal the foreign investment policy that requires private investors to notify Australian authorities when establishing a new business in Australia valued at more than $10 million. This requirement currently applies to all non-US investors. "New businesses in Australia boost growth, create jobs, and facilitate access to new technologies, global integration and networking," Mr Swan said. Australia stood to benefit as China's urban population doubled during the next 40 years, while India's tripled. "This rebalancing of global growth toward our region could make Australia one of the biggest beneficiaries of the recovery, if we are bold enough to grab the opportunities of the Asian century." But for now, Mr Swan was more subdued about the Australian economy as the global economic downturn continued. "I'm an optimist by nature but, above all, I'm a realist and I certainly won't be popping champagne corks when it is realistic to expect thousands of Australians still stand to lose their jobs to this global downturn, before its over," he said. In a further sign of struggle, Australian retail sales dipped by 1.4 per cent in June, marking the biggest monthly decline since February, official data released today showed. It followed May's one per cent increase. An Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey of business conditions for the June quarter showed a recovery but the reading was still in negative territory. http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25880923-31037,00.html |
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| gingerwitch28 | Aug 4 2009, 01:16 PM Post #24 |
twenty-first century ennui
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Let's hope so. Now, if that attitude was taken to their cultural exports as well... 
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| Sayf Udeen Ismaeel | Sep 7 2009, 04:00 AM Post #25 |
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As someone seeking change I like this news: Job ads post first growth since April 2008 JOB advertisements increased in August for the first time in 16 months as businesses prepared for a recovery in the economy, a survey says. The ANZ survey released today found there were 4.1 per cent more job ads in newspapers and on the internet, seasonally adjusted, in August, at an average of 130,326 a week. It followed a 1.7 per cent fall in July. The number of ads in newspapers rose by 5.5 per cent in August, while ads on the internet rose by 4 per cent. ANZ Banking Group acting chief economist Warren Hogan said the rise in job ads during August was the first monthly rise since April 2008 and the strongest rate of monthly growth since December 2007. "These data provide the best evidence we have received to date that the labour market (and the economy more generally) are about to enter the recovery phase of this downturn," Mr Hogan said. "Indeed, the main driver of increasing unemployment has been rapid growth in the labour force due to strong population growth and high levels of participation. "Once the recovery commences, this process is likely to happen in reverse, with work hours for existing employees creeping up again first, before total employment numbers begin to grow." However, total jobs ads were down 48.1 per cent compared to August 2008. Mr Hogan said it may take time before there is a sustained period of job growth. ANZ has forecast a loss of 15,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate to rise 0.2 percentage points to 6 per cent when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly labour force report on Thursday. "In the near term, we expect to see some continued deterioration in the labour market, due to the very low level of demand for new labour, some residual job shedding and continuing strong growth in labour supply," Mr Hogan said. The rate of deterioration in the jobs market would not be as severe as forecast in the first half of 2009 as the Australian economy continued to strengthen more than previously estimated, Mr Hogan said. The Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, following an expansion of 0.4 per cent in the March quarter, ABS data showed last week. In the Federal Budget for 2009/10 handed down on May 12, the Department of Treasury had forecast the jobless rate to peak at 8.5 per cent in the 2010/11 financial year. "Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly in some of our largest employing industries such as retail trade, health services, government and construction," he said. "We now expect the Australian unemployment rate to peak at around 7.25 per cent in mid 2010." The rise in job ads in the ANZ survey followed the Olivier Job index, which measures vacant ads on commercial jobs sites and was released on Sunday, increased by 2.43 per cent in August. It was the first rise in the Olivier Job index since May 2008. "Job creation has turned a corner," Olivier Group director Robert Olivier said. http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,26037321-462,00.html |
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7:36 AM Nov 26
