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What the Polls are Telling Us; from Rasmussen
Topic Started: Sep 7 2008, 03:31 AM (709 Views)
Jezebelle

Rasmussen polls were the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election. They were off by less than 1/2 %. I thought we should take a look at where we are: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls

Here's a small snippet from the report:

"There’s little doubt that the story of the past week was the Republican National Convention… and that the story of the convention was Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Just over a week ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of the self-described hockey-mom. By Friday, one week after she was introduced to the nation, Palin was more popular that Obama or McCain. In general, McCain’s choice of a running mate receives slightly higher marks that Barack Obama’s choice of Joe Biden a week earlier. In the first wave of post-convention polling, McCain made significant inroads among women voters."
Edited by Jezebelle, Sep 7 2008, 03:32 AM.
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Tidbits

Zogby Interactive Polls are not reliable, IMHO.

His traditional polls may be, though I don't trust him.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

(People sign up for them. http://interactive.zogby.com/pollregistration/registration/index.cfm?refsite=news )

But:
Quote:
 

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The Ticket Horserace

9-5/6

8-29/30

McCain-Palin

49.7%

47.1%

Obama-Biden

45.9%

44.6%

Others/Not sure

4.4%

8.3%

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

One-on-One Horserace

9-5/6

McCain

48.8%

Obama

45.7%

Others/Not sure

5.5%

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.



Quote:
 
"Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.




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Tidbits

Good poll data should be out Monday, less good on Sunday.
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Tidbits

When will a pollster be sharp enough to ask who you would vote for for President:

Obama or Sarah

Biden or Sarah

Biden or McCain

That would be interesting and different.
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Jezebelle

Tid, what does Zogby have to do with this? And why post it if you know it's rubbish?

Most people know Zogby is a joke. Just a question, but what is the relevance of your Zogby breakdown to the Rasmussen discussion?

If you want to add other polls to the discussion, how about checking out Gallup or Quinnipiac?
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Tidbits

Jezebelle
Sep 7 2008, 05:42 AM
1. Tid, what does Zogby have to do with this?

2. And why post it if you know it's rubbish?

3. Most people know Zogby is a joke.

4. Just a question, but what is the relevance of your Zogby breakdown to the Rasmussen discussion?

5. If you want to add other polls to the discussion, how about checking out Gallup or Quinnipiac?
1. See the thread topic.

2. Some quote it.

3. I doubt it.

4. None. But, see the topic.

5. Gallop tracking includes old days. I haven't seen a new Q.

Zogby is the first post McCain I have seen.
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Jezebelle

Tidbits
Sep 7 2008, 05:49 AM
Jezebelle
Sep 7 2008, 05:42 AM
1. Tid, what does Zogby have to do with this?

2. And why post it if you know it's rubbish?

3. Most people know Zogby is a joke.

4. Just a question, but what is the relevance of your Zogby breakdown to the Rasmussen discussion?

5. If you want to add other polls to the discussion, how about checking out Gallup or Quinnipiac?
1. See the thread topic.

2. Some quote it.

3. I doubt it.

4. None. But, see the topic.

5. Gallop tracking includes old days. I haven't seen a new Q.

Zogby is the first post McCain I have seen.
1). I know what the topic is. I started it. It's about the Rasmussen poll. There is also a Gallup poll out with Obama at +2. I chose Rasmussen because they have the best reputation.

2). So what if some quote it? If you know it's crap, why waste your or our time by posting it here? Just curious.

3). Well then, the fewer people who see the Zogby crap, the better off everyone is.

4). "None" is the right answer.

5). There's a brand new one out.

6). If it's crap, it's crap, no matter when it's released.

7). By all means, more power to you. Don't discuss/post about the Rasmussen poll, just post whatever.

*SIGH*

:toast:
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sdsgo

Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today. These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

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Baldo
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The real poll is first Tuesday of November. All of this is just statistical fortune telling, BUT it is a good predictor of trends.



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Locomotive Breath

Jezebelle
Sep 7 2008, 03:31 AM
Rasmussen polls were the most accurate in the 2004 presidential election. They were off by less than 1/2 %. I thought we should take a look at where we are: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls

Here's a small snippet from the report:

"There’s little doubt that the story of the past week was the Republican National Convention… and that the story of the convention was Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Just over a week ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of the self-described hockey-mom. By Friday, one week after she was introduced to the nation, Palin was more popular that Obama or McCain. In general, McCain’s choice of a running mate receives slightly higher marks that Barack Obama’s choice of Joe Biden a week earlier. In the first wave of post-convention polling, McCain made significant inroads among women voters."
Well we next need to run a lacrosse mom. I'm not sure who's tougher, but I know a few with an ax to grind.
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Deleted User
Deleted User

Rae Evans to the NY Times, Daily Kos, Move-On.org - You will pay and you will pay on November 4 and for the rest of your lives.
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Tidbits

The topic, still, as before, refers to "polls", not any particular polls.
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Baldo
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http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

snipped
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Jezebelle

Tidbits
Sep 7 2008, 09:00 PM
The topic, still, as before, refers to "polls", not any particular polls.
FNC is reporting a USA Today/Gallup tracking poll done from post convention Friday to today showing McCain-Palin at 50%, Obama-Biden at 46%.

I think as the anti-Palin smear machine trudges on, there may be an even greater split develop. Americans in general don't like this sort of thing that's being done to Palin.
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Jezebelle

Tid, from Baldo's link:

"In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama."
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