|
Presidential Debate - 10/16/12
|
|
Topic Started: Oct 14 2012, 08:22 PM (6,926 Views)
|
|
kbp
|
Oct 14 2012, 08:22 PM
Post #1
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
Tuesday - October 16, 2012
Topic: Town meeting format including foreign and domestic policy Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time Location: Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York (Tickets) Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates Participants: President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney Moderator: Candy Crowley (CNN Chief Political Correspondent)
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 14 2012, 08:27 PM
Post #2
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
- Quote:
-
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/14/us-usa-campaign-debate-idUSBRE89D0IW20121014In second debate, Obama faces challenges on key issues(Reuters) - Losing ground to Republican Mitt Romney on a host of issues, President Barack Obama faces a serious challenge to put his re-election bid back on track when the two men face off on Tuesday in their second debate. Obama's passive performance in their first debate two weeks ago and Romney's subsequent surge have raised expectations for a more fiery encounter at New York's Hofstra University. The Democratic president's team has been encouraged by the feisty performance of Vice President Joe Biden last week in his debate against Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Now, with Romney having virtually erased Obama's lead in national polls just three weeks before the November 6 election, Obama is hoping to take advantage of the town hall-style format in Tuesday's debate to make a direct pitch to voters. Obama is likely to pitch his economic vision, which focuses on a tax breaks for the middle class and tax increases for the wealthy. Romney has called for across-the-board tax cuts and sparred with Obama over whether such a plan would add to the nation's debt problems. On Sunday, Reuters/Ipsos surveys of likely voters indicated Romney had closed the gap or overtaken Obama in the past two weeks on a range of issues - from who would be better at creating jobs to dealing with taxes and Iran's nuclear ambitions. Although the U.S. unemployment rate dipped below 8 percent last month for the first time since Obama took office in January 2009, Romney now leads the incumbent by 42.5 percent to 39.2 percent among likely voters on the question of who would be better at creating jobs. That reverses a lead of almost 6 points for Obama on that issue on September 30, before the first debate. The pressure is now on Obama, who has acknowledged he was "too polite" in that debate, to be more confrontational without appearing strident or desperate. For Romney, the task is simply to turn in another sure-footed performance that keeps the Republican momentum rolling. "Obama can't afford another really bad debate performance, he won't have time to recover," said Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas. "He's up against it now." Biden showed his boss the way on Thursday with an energetic debate against Ryan. Both sides seemed happy after that debate, but most polls indicated that more voters saw Biden as the winner, despite criticism of his sarcastic asides, dismissive grins and questions over his claim that the administration was not fully aware of the security needs at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, before an assault there last month that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens. To fire up Democrats while retaining the sympathy of independent voters who like him personally but are uncertain about his leadership, Obama will have to show Biden's passion without his histrionics. Obama often displays that passion on the campaign trail, comfortably hammering Romney with an easy style. Whether he can do so in the town-hall format of the debate, where undecided voters will ask questions of the two candidates, is an open question. The intimate setting of that format sometimes restrains candidates from being too aggressive as they focus on questions from individuals rather than a moderator. "You don't want to be too nasty in front of those voters, you need to have to have your empathy antenna up," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire. But the change in atmosphere from a stilted one-on-one standoff could make Obama "feel more at liberty to be expressive, less somber," Buchanan said. "He's very good at using crowds in a jocular way to attack his opponent. He does that every day on the stump." ROMNEY'S POLL SURGE A Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll on Sunday showed Obama leading Romney by 1 percentage point, 46 to 45, down from a 3-point Romney lead last Thursday - a possible sign that the Republican's surge after the first debate could be running out of steam. But underlying trends in Reuters/Ipsos data are worrying for Obama. They show voters are evaluating Romney more favorably on key issues that could influence how they vote. The Reuters/Ipsos online data showed that Obama is now behind on who has the better plan for the federal deficit. Obama was ahead by 1 point two weeks ago; Romney now has a significant lead on that issue, 43.4 percent to 29.9. The former Massachusetts governor has overtaken Obama on who has the best plan for the economy, and now leads on that question by 43 percent to 37.6. Answers to the issues questions have a credibility interval - a way of measuring the accuracy of polls - of around 2.5 percent for each number and are based on samples of 1,700 respondents. Perhaps because of Republicans' questions over how the Obama administration has handled the Benghazi attack, Romney has even crept up on issues long seen as safe territory for Obama, such as the war on terrorism and dealing with Iran. The president's lead on Iran has shrunk from nine points two weeks ago to less than one and from 11 points to three on the war against terrorism. snip
Read all of it. The monkey is on Barry's back!
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 14 2012, 08:36 PM
Post #3
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
Barry needs this one really, really bad.
- Quote:
-
http://blogs.ajc.com/jamie-dupree-washington-insider/2012/10/14/latest-swing-state-poll-snapshot/Latest swing state poll snapshot8:31 pm October 14, 2012, by Jamie Dupree One week ago, we took a look at the swing state polls, which were just starting to show some movement in the wake of the first Obama-Romney debate; now on the eve of their second face off, we can certainly see how things changed in favor of the Republican nominee. It is important to note that there are lot of opinions on whether this poll shift is temporary or a more fundamental shift. I ran into a friend of mine over the weekend who does polling for Democratic candidates and causes - and she was indignant that the polls are simply flat wrong. Republicans obviously disagree and disagree strongly with that type of assessment. So, let's take a look at the ten swing states, from largest to smallest. * Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Two weeks ago, the President held a several point lead in the Real Clear poll average in the Sunshine State; last week that average had dropped to a tie. Now Mitt Romney's edge is about 3%. (This is what we call a "trend.") Every poll taken since the October 3 debate has moved toward Romney as the GOP nominee has led in six of the last seven polls in Florida after the President was tops in 10 straight. The President is not scheduled to campaign in Florida this week. * Ohio (18) - If Florida is starting to trend towards Romney, maybe we can almost declare that Ohio will (again) be the key state for 2012. Both candidates have spent a lot of time here, as Romney has drawn very large crowds in a series of recent rallies. The big front page story in Saturday's Columbus Dispatch had an interesting first line: "Maybe Vice President Joe Biden stopped the bleeding for the Obama campaign on Thursday, but he did little to stall the momentum Mitt Romney's building in Ohio." The President's average poll lead is at 1.7%; it was almost double that a week ago. * Michigan (16) - A week ago, I wrote that "my gut tells me if Ohio is close, Michigan can't be double digits right now," as the President's average poll lead was 10%. In a week, that dropped to a lead of 4.4%. While neither candidate is actively advertising in Michigan (according to the Detroit News), a pro-Romney Super PAC is making a big TV ad buy there. Romney has only led in one Michigan poll since August, demonstrating what many feel is an edge for the President that will be difficult for Republicans to erase. * North Carolina (15) - The post-convention bump in the polls in the Tar Heel State for President Obama has evaporated over the last two weeks, as Romney now leads in the poll average by 3.3%. Republicans also seem to be enjoying an advantage in absentee ballot returns as compared to four years ago. North Carolina has not been on the President's schedule of late, and he won't be there again over the next week; the last trip for Vice President Biden there resulted in his quote that the middle class had been "buried" the last four years. * Virginia (13) - President Obama is spending three days in Williamsburg, Virginia for his debate prep, one of many visits by both candidates in recent weeks as this state has been a very active battleground. The President's polling advantage in the Old Dominion is almost all gone, as averages have him ahead by just 0.4%, down several points. Romney has led in four of the last six Virginia polls, after 12 straight favored the President. If Romney can win Virginia, Florida & North Carolina, he could win this race without Ohio. * Wisconsin (10) - The evidence of a polling surge for Romney is certainly obvious in Wisconsin, where the President's leads of 11 and 12 points suddenly dropped to polls showing an edge of two or three points in the last week. The President still has the overall edge in Wisconsin, with the poll average now at 2.3%. Republicans do think they can win here, based on their success this year in defeating the recall effort against Gov. Scott Walker, but Romney has now trailed in 26 of the last 30 polls in the Badger State. * Colorado (9) - When I was in Colorado for the first Presidential debate, the polling indicators were definitely more in favor of the President, but since then, they have turned around, as this state is now a complete dead heat. If you are thinking about how the candidates can get to 270 Electoral Votes, Colorado could be a big deal for Romney - if you think he has a chance in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, then you add in Colorado and he is only 13 Electoral Votes away from a majority. * Iowa (6) - I still shake my head at the thought that ten months after the start of this campaign, we are still worried about Iowa and New Hampshire. Last week, the poll averages gave an edge to the President of 3.5% in the Hawkeye State; the only poll in Iowa since the first debate (by Rasmussen) showed the President with a two point edge. The absentee ballots in so far are running about the same rate as four years ago when the Democrats won. Where will President Obama go for his first post-debate rally this week? Iowa. Don't laugh at its corn fields and 6 Electoral Votes - they could be a big deal. * Nevada (6) - The poll averages still give President Obama the edge here, but it has shrunk in half over the last week, and is now down to 1.6%. Nevada is a state that Republicans thought they could crack in 2012, but it hasn't turned out that way so far. Again, I will point out that the polls in the Silver State have not been good in recent major elections - consider these examples: In 2010, the final poll average forecast a defeat for Sen. Harry Reid by 2.7%. Instead, Reid won by 5.6%, a difference of over 8%. Back in 2008, the polls forecast a 6.5% average win for Barack Obama - instead his margin was 12.5%. In 2004, the average polling edge for President Bush was 6.3%, but he won by only 3.5%. I cannot ignore that kind of error in the polls, so, in my head, I am adding a few percent to Obama's total in each Nevada poll. We'll see if the polls have a better track record in 2012. * New Hampshire (4) - Three polls over the last week in the Granite State showed a definite move towards Romney, even as the President has maintained a narrow lead in the poll averages of 0.7%. President Obama will be in Manchester later this week, as Democrats hope to keep New Hampshire from being a small island of Red in New England. Just as I remember errant polls in 2004, 2008 & 2010 from Nevada, I also can't get the 2008 Democratic Primary out of my head in New Hampshire - the polls all showed a win for Obama, but he lost to Hillary Clinton. Just something to think about. A week ago, we wondered if the polls might surge a little for Mitt Romney after the first debate - they did. Now we will see what happens after the second debate this week. An edge for the President could well swing things back his way; another "win" for Romney could reinforce the polling gains of recent days. Tighten your chin strap for a fun last three weeks.
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 15 2012, 08:29 AM
Post #4
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
- Quote:
-
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/10/13/poll-47-percent-of-new-yorkers-are-worse-off-financially-than-they-were-4-years-ago/Poll: 47 Percent Of New Yorkers Are Worse Off Financially Than They Were 4 Years Ago NEW YORK (CBSNewYork/AP) - A new poll finds that 47 percent of New Yorkers say they are worse off financially than they were four years ago, compared to 37 percent who say their finances have improved. The Siena College poll released on Friday also found that 68 percent of New York state residents support raising the federal income tax for high earners. Around 75 percent favor increased development of domestic energy sources, including oil and natural gas. New Yorkers are evenly split when it comes to support for recent federal health care reforms. Forty three present said they support the changes. Forty percent favor repealing them. The telephone survey of 621 New York state residents over 18 was conducted from Oct. 2 to 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Should Barry mention the "47%", maybe Mitt could ask him if he's talking about the "47 Percent Of New Yorkers Are Worse Off Financially Than They Were 4 Years Ago."
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 15 2012, 08:40 AM
Post #5
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DEBATE_TOWN_HALLS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-10-15-04-47-44
This time, voters pose the debate questions
An interesting article from Drudge. The "town hall" debate seems to be a good one for Romney, as it is more difficult for either candidate to walk away with a big win UNLESS the losing candidate destroys himself. Good for a break-even outcome by just showing up and not making a fool of yourself.
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 15 2012, 09:58 AM
Post #6
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
If Romney degrades what was accomplished with the Stimulus act, Barry needs to point out it is still creating JOBS!
http://www.washingtonguardian.com/stimulating-investigation
Feds have more than 1,900 investigations open into alleged stimulus wrongdoing
With little notice, inspectors generals across federal agencies are piecing together criminal and civil cases into stimulus money that was misspent, wasted or defrauded.
The government’s chief spending watchdogs have already secured nearly 600 convictions and judgments against people and companies accused of misusing stimulus funds and have a whopping 1,900 investigations currently open into possible wrongdoing, officials say.
....“These cases often take months or years, and we’ve got hundreds open right now across the government so that number is going to go up, probably by a large amount over the next 18 months,” the official said, speaking only on condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to speak to the media
That's UNEMPLOYMENT going down!!
|
|
|
| |
|
chatham
|
Oct 15 2012, 10:11 AM
Post #7
|
|
- Posts:
- 28,122
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #308
- Joined:
- May 2, 2008
|
- kbp
- Oct 15 2012, 08:40 AM
This is the problem with this debate format.
http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/14/moderator-role-under-scrutiny-before-the-debate/
Moderator Role Under Scrutiny — Before the Debate By MARK HALPERIN | October 14, 2012
Read more: http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/14/moderator-role-under-scrutiny-before-the-debate/#ixzz29NfeOrpH
|
|
|
| |
|
chatham
|
Oct 15 2012, 10:23 AM
Post #8
|
|
- Posts:
- 28,122
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #308
- Joined:
- May 2, 2008
|
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82402.html?hp=r1 Candy Crowley: ‘I’m not a fly on the wall’
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DEBATE_TOWN_HALLS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-10-15-04-47-44 EYES ARE ON THE VOTERS IN TOWN HALL-STYLE DEBATES
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/08/11/cnns-candy-crowley-ryan-pick-looks-little-bit-some-sort-ticket-death-#ixzz29N2psx9D CNN's Candy Crowley Claims Some GOPers Think Ryan Pick ‘Some Sort of Ticket Death Wish’
|
|
|
| |
|
Baldo
|
Oct 15 2012, 11:02 AM
Post #9
|
|
- Posts:
- 59,953
- Group:
- Global Moderators
- Member
- #45
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
So the audience is supposed to be composed of undecided voters as determined by Gallup.
Don't know what to think about that. I mean seriously if you can't see the damage Obama has done to this country why are you invited to any debate at this late date? An incumbent President has a great advantage and the reality he is slightly behind in some polls speaks poorly
So my approach would be to find out what's holding those undecided voters back at this late date. I am sure it is a question posed by both campaigns.
Maybe it is in area who is Mitt Romney? I think that is why he surged after the last debate. The Obama Campaign has tried to make him into something of a demonic capitalist. It didn't work and Romney came off intelligent, a leader, likeable, while Obama appeared poorly
I think this debate will be about getting voter turnout by Obama for Obama, energized the base. For Romney it will be Obama's record.
Just guessing.
Edited by Baldo, Oct 15 2012, 11:05 AM.
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 15 2012, 02:40 PM
Post #10
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
- Baldo
- Oct 15 2012, 11:02 AM
So the audience is supposed to be composed of undecided voters as determined by Gallup.
Don't know what to think about that. I mean seriously if you can't see the damage Obama has done to this country why are you invited to any debate at this late date? An incumbent President has a great advantage and the reality he is slightly behind in some polls speaks poorly
So my approach would be to find out what's holding those undecided voters back at this late date. I am sure it is a question posed by both campaigns.
Maybe it is in area who is Mitt Romney? I think that is why he surged after the last debate. The Obama Campaign has tried to make him into something of a demonic capitalist. It didn't work and Romney came off intelligent, a leader, likeable, while Obama appeared poorly
I think this debate will be about getting voter turnout by Obama for Obama, energized the base. For Romney it will be Obama's record.
Just guessing. I had read an article that said the network or somebody was reviewing all questions long before they are to be asked!
|
|
|
| |
|
chatham
|
Oct 15 2012, 03:21 PM
Post #11
|
|
- Posts:
- 28,122
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #308
- Joined:
- May 2, 2008
|
The network chooses the questions fro the audience that will be asked. Of course the longer the candidates talk, the fewer questions. Also, big candy has been told to just follow the rules... do not interpret any audience questions.
slap, slap, naughty naughty
|
|
|
| |
|
LTC8K6
|
Oct 15 2012, 06:28 PM
Post #12
|
|
Assistant to The Devil Himself
- Posts:
- 28,863
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #15
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
http://michellemalkin.com/2012/10/15/a-reminder-about-the-last-plant-infested-cnn-run-town-hall-debate/
A reminder about the last plant-infested, CNN-run town hall debate
|
|
|
| |
|
nyesq83
|
Oct 15 2012, 11:16 PM
Post #13
|
|
- Posts:
- 1,698
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #239
- Joined:
- Apr 29, 2008
|
If there are 10 black people in the audience, 9 of them are voting for Obama, maybe 10, since we are talking NY.
Same goes for other "minorities", who will most likely be in total a majority.
I won't watch the debate, especially since I cannot stand Crowley, who we all know is in the tank for Obama.
Edited by nyesq83, Oct 15 2012, 11:24 PM.
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 16 2012, 01:34 PM
Post #14
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/15/Obama-expected-win-debate
Pressure: Americans Expect Obama to Win Second Debate
Good news for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney: despite President Barack Obama’s somnambulant performance at the first presidential debate, the American public still expects him to win the second debate. According to the latest Pew Research Center poll, 41 percent of Americans think Obama will do better, compared with 37 percent for Romney. That is a large shift in Romney’s direction – before the first debate, Pew found that people expected Obama to win, 51 percent to 29 percent. Independents think Romney will do better than Obama; Democrats seem far less sure that Obama will beat Romney.
The expectations game is key prior to this second debate. If the American public expected Romney to win, he’d have no room for growth after this debate. But while independents think Obama will lose, they only think he’ll lose by a 41-32 margin. That means that there’s significant upside for Romney here. For Obama, by contrast, the expectations remain high – he’ll have to show strong to win this debate.
The pressure’s therefore on the incumbent. Thanks to Joe Biden’s unhinged performance in the vice presidential debate – and thanks to the left’s unhinged response, cheering wildly for a man on the verge of an emotional breakdown – President Obama will likely come out swinging tomorrow night.
That’s not going to work well for him. The last few presidential debates have been won by the candidate who appeared more presidential – not passive, but presidential. The candidate on the strident attack has always seemed petty and vindictive (see Carter, Jimmy). And President Obama will have to go on the attack, since he has no record on which to run.
If Americans expect Obama to win, he’ll have to win big to justify those expectations. And with the American people losing big under his administration and no teleprompter in sight, that’s a tall order.
That reminds me of the old saying 'he can't win for losin'
|
|
|
| |
|
kbp
|
Oct 16 2012, 01:37 PM
Post #15
|
|
- Posts:
- 51,984
- Group:
- Tier1
- Member
- #20
- Joined:
- Apr 28, 2008
|
http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/15/voters-divided-over-who-will-win-second-debate/
Linked from last post
|
|
|
| |
| 1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
|