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The Mexican Swine Flu Epidemic
Topic Started: Apr 25 2009, 08:51 AM (5,076 Views)
Deleted User
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To LodgePro. Re: Gingrich comments.
Whatever your political opinion of Newt is, the fact is that handwashing is the single best known deterrent to passing along flu ( and other) germs. Such diseases are usually either airborne or passed from one contaminated person to an object that is handled by a previously uncomtaminated person. The CDC has also advocated handwashing as a deterrent. Just because the CDC is located in Georgia, and you don't tust Newt is no reason to ignore simple safety precautions. That's the proverbial nose/ face stance and this is too serious a matter to ignore.

Purell is a second-best choice to handwashing with soap. But definitely good for planes etc.
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Lodge Pro 345
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dsl
Apr 27 2009, 09:19 PM
To LodgePro. Re: Gingrich comments.
Whatever your political opinion of Newt is, the fact is that handwashing is the single best known deterrent to passing along flu ( and other) germs. Such diseases are usually either airborne or passed from one contaminated person to an object that is handled by a previously uncomtaminated person. The CDC has also advocated handwashing as a deterrent. Just because the CDC is located in Georgia, and you don't tust Newt is no reason to ignore simple safety precautions. That's the proverbial nose/ face stance and this is too serious a matter to ignore.

Purell is a second-best choice to handwashing with soap. But definitely good for planes etc.
.
There's also a practical limit to that advice.

People are in class rooms, Tellers have lines to deal with, Toll booth operators have limits, how about movie theatres, Coughing, sneezing, Money given as change, etc.

It's an over-simplification and how do you control the people that don't follow that advice?

.
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Concerned
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4 suspected cases in Juarez. They're handing out masks at the border if anyone seems to be sick.

Quote:
 
Customs and Border Protection officers at the El Paso and New Mexico international bridges are on the alert for motorists or pedestrians who may have flu symptoms.

Roger Maier, spokesman for Customs and Border Protection, said bridge officials were passing out a Traveler's Health Alert Notice, which has information about swine flu symptoms.

"If our officers encounter someone who is sick, then they will give the person a medical mask. Our officers also have protective kits for themselves," Maier said. "If they deem it necessary, they refer them to the CDC office."



http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_12238910
Edited by Concerned, Apr 27 2009, 10:39 PM.
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Baldo
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For those twitter fans here is a site which updates the spread of the swine flu. It is a company which markets ww detection software. This is a free service.

They update ww on what's happening.

If you are not a twitter user you don't have to be to watch the updates and it is a good intro into the benefits of twitter

https://twitter.com/Veratect

Clearly it appears to be spreading as counties are reporting
Edited by Baldo, Apr 27 2009, 10:49 PM.
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Concerned
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Thanks, Baldo for posting that link. Great site.
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Kethra

sceptical
Apr 25 2009, 11:39 PM
This is potentially a very serious development. There has been concern for years about a new pandemic of influenza, which keeps mutating every few decades.

Key questions, among others, are:

1) If there human-human transmission? The Mexico experience says yes.
2) Do anti-virals like Tamiflu or Relenza work? Unknown
3) How much is the new strain similar to previous influenza A strains? Does vaccination with the 2008 vaccine help protect? Unknown.
4) What is the case fatality rate? The Mexico experience suggests it is significant.
5) Is the fatal pneumonia from the virus itself, or is it a secondary bacterial pneumonia? If so, are antibiotics preventative for the bacterial pneumonia?
6) Do public health measures (closing schools, etc.) prevent spread of the virus?
7) Are hospitals equipped to treat large numbers of people with pneumonia?
8) How fast can a new vaccine be developed for this strain of influenza A?

The latest is that there have been 81 deaths in Mexico:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/265940,extra-influenza-death-toll-rises-to-81-in-mexico.html

For what is known so far see:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_24/en/index.html
Hey all,

Let me swing at these questions!

Type A Influenza:
This is a virus that affects Humans as well as other non mammalian species (Birds). This is the Viral family responsible for all influenza pandemics and most deaths. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_A_influenza , this is an EXCELLENT article on type A influenza.

The issue here is a mutation of the virus into the variant of H5N1, the most feared and cause of most pandemics.

Type B Influenza

This virus affects humans and seals ONLY giving it a limited host source which is why it doesn't tend to cause pandemics. It also mutates 2 to 3 times slower than Type A making it easier to create vaccines for.

Answers:

1. There is confirmation of Human-Human transmission with new cases being found in parts of Asia this morning.

2. Anti-Virals. Tamiflu has shown some effectiveness in Type A Influenza. As with any flu, a very fast mutating virus is going to do two things either make anti-virals less effective as the epidemic progresses or make them very effective. Depends which way it mutates basically. It is important to note, that very few medications have any effectiveness with viral infections. Supportive therapy is usually the only thing that can be offered.

3. The new strain is a TYPE A H1N1 variant influenza. All the endemic and pandemic flu's (Hong Kong, Asian flu ect) are descendant from the original strain of Spanish Flu that killed 50 million people in 1918-1919 which also was a H1N1 variant. As of this morning, the American Cases are have the genetic elements of four different flu viruses -North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe-. This has the potential to be extremely serious.

Vaccines and response: The CDC this morning in a release to my PDA says that IF you have had consistent flu shots for many years you MIGHT get some reduction of symptom. Once again, the reason why we have flu shots every year is because the flu virus is a very fast mutating virus and each year is different from the year before. You would most likely have to get very lucky for any previous vaccine to work.

4. Current fatality rates are unknown due to poor response by the Mexican Government and lack of substantive tracking by medical personnel there. Fatality rates cannot be projected at this time due to superinfection (mutation). If you take the numbers in Mexico that we KNOW, it works out to a > 7% fatality rate at this time which is exceptionally high. The fatality rate for the Spanish Flu was > 2.5% unlike most flu which is <0.1%. It also has the unique "W" shape on the curve. Most influenza deaths track and create the typical "U" shape with the youngest and oldest being most likely to die. In the H1N1 and H5N1 variants, you see a "W" with people 20-40 dying as well which was true with the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919.

5. The secondary infection of Pneumonia can caused by the flu virus but this is very rare, it is usually caused from the bacteria you already carry in your body ( usually Streptococcus) and your weakened immune state. Antibiotics are indicated for prevention of this secondary infection. This pneumonia normally occurs during the recovery stage of the influenza infection.

6. Yes, somewhat. The issue is people take their sick children to day care because they have no family leave time or they go to work because they have no paid time off. Just closing schools will not address these issues. Neither will wearing a standard mask. You need a special mask called a respirator. These have a very low micron number (the size of the particle that can pass) and are fitted to your face. A general mask will help somewhat as will good hygienic practice (washing hands, covering mouth when coughing). Remember this is a airborne virus spread through cough and touch.

7. No. There are not enough beds should a true pandemic occur nor are there enough anti viral drugs (assuming they work with some degree of efficacy ). Many who are not very sick will seek hospital beds when they could recover at home. Triage will be a nightmare in deciding who is sick enough to need hospitalization. People will NOT take care of themselves or do not have family that can take care of them. This includes the basics of drinking lots of clear fluids, taking anti inflammation drugs and/or tylenol. Dehydration will cause more deaths than the flu itself as will the untreated secondary pneumonia. More people will die because they do not, will not or cannot care for themselves. Home care will go a long way to helping. Having Nurses visit the homes of the ill and checking on them will reduce dramatically the death rate. However, there is no program in place to provide this service at this time.

8. 3 to 6 months for vaccine development with a 75% efficacy rate. The last vaccine developed for the Swine Flu outbreak was in 1976 was an absolute debacle. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-1007.htm

The vaccine was not effective in single dose administration to children and adults who got the vaccine developed Guillain-Barré Syndrome. The vaccine manufacturer's demanded that the United States Government indemnify them against ANY lawsuit. People panicked including our government, it was a mess. Read about it.

Hope this helps. the BEST THING YOU CAN DO IS don't panic, don't freak out, relax. Protect yourself and your family using common sense measures (cover mouth, wash hands, disinfect common surfaces like your phone, glasses , ect) and if you do get flu like symptoms, FIRST put on a mask (protect those around you!!!, do NOT wait to seek medical care), then go seek medical care. If the medical staff gets sick, NO ONE gets help. You can buy cheap masks at your local pharmacy. You may feel silly, but us nurses will LOVE you for it!
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Kerri P.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30398682/?GT1=43001
Official: U.S. flu victims may be infecting others
Cases confirmed in Asia, Middle East as virus spreads beyond travelers

updated 12 minutes ago

The swine flu epidemic crossed new borders Tuesday with the first cases confirmed in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region, as world health officials said they suspect American patients may have transmitted the virus to others in the U.S.

Most people confirmed with the new swine flu were infected in Mexico, where the number of deaths blamed on the virus has surpassed 150.

But confirmation that people have been infecting others in locations outside Mexico would indicate that the disease was spreading beyond travelers returning from Mexico, World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl told reporters on Tuesday in Geneva.

Hartl said the source of some infections in the United States, Canada and Britain was unclear.

No travel restrictions

The swine flu has already spread to at least six countries besides Mexico, prompting WHO to raise its alert level on Monday but not call for travel bans or border closings. On Tuesday, countries, including Canada, Israel and France, warned their citizens to avoid nonessential travel to Mexico.

snip...
Edited by Kerri P., Apr 28 2009, 10:16 AM.
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Baldo
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Again I recommend

https://twitter.com/Veratect

It is fascinating to watch the reports come in.

Here is their Press Release

http://www.veratect.com/media/042609_release.pdf

Veratect the Company to First Sound Alarm on Swine Influenza
Makes Data on the Spread of this Disease Public

Service Will Provide Public Health Organizations, Local and National
Governments, Humanitarian, Aid Organizations with Critical UptotheMinute
Data for Early Response Efforts

KIRKLAND, Wash., — Apr. 26, 2009 — Veratect Corporation, a company that tracks
disease outbreaks globally, announced data from the 24‐hour tracking service that first
detected the current swine influenza outbreak will be made available to the public.
Veratect’s data will provide public health, humanitarian and aid organizations, as well as
local and national governments, with up‐to‐the‐minute information about potential spread
of the disease to aid in early response efforts. Updates will be made available via Twitter at
www.twitter.com/veratect.

“In this rapidly evolving outbreak, early intervention can mean the difference between life
and death for people in countries potentially affected by swine influenza. We want to
provide Veratect’s services to everyone concerned about this outbreak so they can have the
information they need to respond in a timely and effective manner,” said Robert (Bob)
Hart, president and CEO.

First to Detect Current Swine Influenza Outbreak
Veratect analysts first detected the current disease outbreak 18 days before the World
Health Organization (WHO) posted its first public report on April 24. Veratect began
tracking unusual respiratory illness associated with Mexico on March 30 and noted a
growing number of cases as they arose.
..snipped

“Without the continual feeds provided by Veratect, the state of Colorado would have been
behind in our understanding of the full scale and magnitude of the current threat posed by
swine influenza,” said Chris Lindley, director of emergency preparedness and response,
Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

Ihsan Azzam, the State Epidemiologist of Nevada, notes that Veratect’s tracking services
provided “The very first alerts I received regarding this Swine Flu Epidemic, as well as the
most detailed, accurate, timely and comprehensive information.”
..,snipped

Edited by Baldo, Apr 28 2009, 10:50 AM.
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DukieInKansas

One of the Sunday School teachers at my church teaches the 3-5 year olds to sneeze or cough into their elbow instead of into their hands. This limits the germs that transfer from your hands to door knobs, etc. I had never thought of this before but it seems pretty logical and a simple change in routine to try to lessen the contamination of other objects just a bit.
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Kerri P.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30442914
Best swine flu strategy: Stay away, everyone
Little-known ‘social distancing’ plans could close schools, gathering spots


snip...
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brittany

DukieInKansas
Apr 28 2009, 11:28 AM
One of the Sunday School teachers at my church teaches the 3-5 year olds to sneeze or cough into their elbow instead of into their hands. This limits the germs that transfer from your hands to door knobs, etc. I had never thought of this before but it seems pretty logical and a simple change in routine to try to lessen the contamination of other objects just a bit.
Dr. on TV suggested sneezing into your elbow.
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brittany

Another school 1/2 mile from the Queens school.

As the number of confirmed cases of swine flu nationwide jumped to 64, New York City began collecting medical samples at a Queens school for autistic children after reports of flu-like symptoms and "more than usual absenteeism," a spokesman for the mayor's office said Tuesday.

The city Health Department sent out a medical team to PS 177 to determine whether any of the students, staff or faculty have been exposed to the strain of swine flu.
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sceptical


http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

Swine Influenza (Flu)

Swine Flu website last updated April 28, 2009 11:00 AM ET

U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
(As of April 28, 2009 11:00 AM ET) State # of laboratory
confirmed cases
California 10 cases
Kansas 2 cases
New York City 45 cases
Ohio 1 case
Texas 6 cases
TOTAL COUNT 64 cases
International Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
See: World Health Organization

The human swine flu outbreak continues to grow in the United States and internationally. Today, CDC reports additional cases of confirmed swine influenza and a number of hospitalizations of swine flu patients. Internationally, the situation is more serious too, with additional countries reporting confirmed cases of swine flu. In response to the intensifying outbreak, the World Health Organization raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 4. A Phase 4 alert is characterized by confirmed person-to-person spread of a new influenza virus able to cause “community-level” outbreaks.” The increase in the pandemic alert phase indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased.

CDC has activated its emergency operations center to coordinate the agency’s emergency response. CDC ’s goals are to reduce transmission and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this swine influenza virus. Yesterday, CDC issued a travel warning recommending that people avoid non-essential travel to Mexico. CDC continues to issue interim guidance daily on the website and through health alert network notices. CDC’s Division of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) is releasing one-quarter of its antiviral drugs, personal protective equipment, and respiratory protection devices to help states respond to the outbreak. The swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is susceptible to the prescription antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC will provide updated guidance and new information as it becomes available.
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Kerri P.
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http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/story/5039376/
Number of confirmed US swine flu cases jumps to 68
By ALICIA A. CALDWELL and ERIN McCLAM
Associated Press Writers
Posted: Today at 1:24 p.m.

EL PASO, Texas — Federal health officials reported Tuesday that the number of confirmed U.S. swine flu cases had jumped to 64, while state officials reported at least four more.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported "a number of hospitalizations" among the confirmed cases, which include 17 new cases in New York City, four more in Texas and three more in California.

That brings the CDC count to 45 in New York City, 10 in California, six in Texas, two in Kansas and one in Ohio.

However, state health officials in California have confirmed three other cases, and Indiana authorities have confirmed one.


The increase is not surprising. For days, CDC officials have said they expected to see more confirmed cases - and more severe illnesses. Health officials across the country have stepped up efforts to look for cases, especially among people with flu-like illness who had traveled to Mexico.

CDC officials also had warned that updates in the number of confirmed cases would at time be disjointed, as different states announce new information before the CDC's national count is updated.

A handful of schools around the country have closed over swine flu fears and some people are wearing masks, but it's mostly business as usual in the U.S., even at border crossings into Mexico.

snip...
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Kerri P.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30453688
‘Many hundreds’ of kids may have swine flu
82 of 380 students at one school for autistic kids are sick, N.Y. mayor says

updated 16 minutes ago

Several hundred students have fallen ill at the New York school hit by a swine flu outbreak, city officials said Tuesday as the number of confirmed cases in the United States rose to 68, with at least seven people hospitalized.

A U.S. health official said deaths were likely.

"I fully expect we will see deaths from this infection" as swine flu cases are investigated, said Richard Besser, acting director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

snip...
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