| The Mexican Swine Flu Epidemic | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Apr 25 2009, 08:51 AM (5,069 Views) | |
| sceptical | May 1 2009, 03:54 PM Post #181 |
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There are new recommendations from the CDC about school closures. They are now recommending that schools with confirmed H1N1 swine flu cases be closed for at least 14 days, based on the fact that people are contagious for 7-10 days : http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/k12_dismissal.htm Interim Recommendations Sick people (students, faculty and staff) should stay home unless they need to seek medical care and stay away from schools regardless of whether schools and childcare facilities are operating normally or have dismissed students or closed, respectively. Dismissal of students in a school and closure of childcare facilities should be considered in schools with one or more laboratory-confirmed or non-subtypable influenza A case among students, faculty or staff in order to decrease the spread of illness in the community. Dismissal of students from schools and closure of childcare facilities should be considered for a school district or part of a school district (e.g., a feeder school network or a geographic area) if more than 1 school in that district has confirmed or non-subtypable influenza A cases among their students, faculty or staff. This would include pre-emptively dismissing students from schools in that district, including schools without current laboratory-confirmed cases. Neighboring school districts to those that dismiss students should also consider pre-emptively dismissing students from schools without current laboratory-confirmed cases. Issues to consider include geographic proximity and extent of mixing of student populations across district lines. If a school dismisses students or a childcare facility closes, school or childcare related gatherings should also be cancelled. Parents and students should be encouraged to avoid congregating in large numbers outside of the school setting. If a school dismisses students or a childcare facility closes, schools and childcare facilities should dismiss students for a minimum of 14 days. Schools, in consultation with local and State public health officials, should evaluate daily the need for possible extension of the dismissal/closure based on local influenza surveillance information, and the occurrence of new infections and severity of illness in the community from this virus. This length of time is recommended because children are likely to be infectious for about 7 – 10 days after the onset of illness |
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| Baldo | May 1 2009, 04:39 PM Post #182 |
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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67283.html Veratect the link we have been following gets some Press https://twitter.com/Veratect Company warned officials of flu 18 days before alert was issued WASHINGTON — A Washington state biosurveillance firm raised the first warning about a possible outbreak of swine flu in Mexico more than two weeks before the World Health Organization offered its initial alert about a public health emergency of international concern. Both federal and international health officials had access to the warning from Veratect Corp. Later e-mails calling attention to the company's subsequent report that the disease was possibly spreading in Mexico were sent to 10 officials of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Robert Hart, the company's chief executive. Hart said he wasn't sure why health officials didn't act sooner. "They have a lot of other responsibilities," Hart said on Thursday. "But every day makes a difference." CDC officials in Atlanta said they were aware of Veratect's claims and hadn't been working with the company..... Veratect, based in Kirkland, Wash., uses a technique known as "data mining" to automatically search tens of thousands of Web sites daily for early signs of looming medical problems or civil unrest anywhere in the world. Anything of interest is turned over to a team of 35 analysts to determine its significance and to post on the company's Web site. The company markets access to its Web site to government agencies, businesses and others and has tried unsuccessfully to sell its service to the CDC, the World Health Organization and the Department of Homeland Security.........snipped http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/67283.html Edited by Baldo, May 1 2009, 04:40 PM.
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| Kerri P. | May 1 2009, 05:37 PM Post #183 |
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http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/5062588/ N.C. stock of flu meds below guidelines Posted: Today at 10:35 a.m. Updated: 45 minutes ago Raleigh, N.C. — North Carolina is one of 29 states that has not stockpiled enough flu treatments to meet the federal government's recommendations, but the state's health director says there's no reason for concern. State officials have stockpiled about 660,000 courses – enough doses to treat one person – of antiviral medicines. North Carolina's federal allotment is about 1 million, and roughly one-quarter of that was distributed this week in preparation to combat the swine flu outbreak. Combined, those 1.7 million total courses are enough to treat about 18 percent of the state's population. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recommends that each state have enough antiviral medicine on hand to treat 25 percent of its population. snip... |
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| Kerri P. | May 1 2009, 05:43 PM Post #184 |
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Head Line News is now saying that there are 152 confirmed cases of Swine Flu in the USA. Someone was just on saying that peope from Mexico were coming over the boarder that are sick so they can come to school, work, and now they are crowding our hospitials. ADDED: The newspapers/ news networks are not updated yet. Edited by Kerri P., May 1 2009, 05:45 PM.
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| Baldo | May 1 2009, 08:49 PM Post #185 |
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The latest from WHO. It seems these numbers are confusing and conflicting. WHO says confirmed flu cases total 331, 10 deaths Fri, May 01 04:40 AM EDT GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization said on Friday that as of 0600 GMT the number of officially confirmed cases of a new flu sweeping around the world was 331 in 11 countries, including 10 deaths. The figures for what the WHO calls influenza A (H1N1), widely known as swine flu, include 109 confirmed cases with one death in the United States and 156 confirmed cases with nine deaths in Mexico, it said in a statement on its website. Other countries with laboratory-confirmed cases are Austria (1), Canada (34), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and United Kingdom (8). Other estimates of infection are higher. For instance Mexico says up to 176 people have died there and the authorities have confirmed 12 deaths. http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/CTOP/ntopNews_uUSTRE54023M20090501?src=RSS-TOP Edited by Baldo, May 1 2009, 08:51 PM.
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| Baldo | May 2 2009, 01:04 AM Post #186 |
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Swine flu may be less potent than first feared The swine flu outbreak that has alarmed the world for a week now appears less ominous, with the virus showing little staying power in the hardest-hit cities and scientists suggesting it lacks the genetic fortitude of past killer bugs. President Barack Obama even voiced hope Friday that it may turn out to be no more harmful than the average seasonal flu. In New York City, which has the most confirmed swine flu cases in the U.S. with 49, swine flu has not spread far beyond cases linked to one Catholic school. In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, very few relatives of flu victims seem to have caught it. A flu expert said he sees no reason to believe the virus is particularly lethal. And a federal scientist said the germ's genetic makeup lacks some traits seen in the deadly 1918 flu pandemic strain and the more recent killer bird flu. Still, it was too soon to be certain what the swine flu virus will do. Experts say the only wise course is to prepare for the worst. But in a world that's been rattled by the specter of a global pandemic, glimmers of hope were more than welcome Friday. "It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus, in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these preparations," Obama said, using the flu's scientific name...snipped AP Story |
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| Kethra | May 2 2009, 08:08 AM Post #187 |
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Pokes Baldo... Told ya! All this disease did was give the morons on TV something to whip ratings up with. |
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| sceptical | May 2 2009, 08:12 AM Post #188 |
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However, the concern is that the H1N1 could return in the fall with a more potent mutation. This is what happened in 1918. Of course then, there were no antiviral drugs, and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial pneumonia. Vaccine development would seem a wise course of action. |
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| wayne fontes | May 2 2009, 08:29 AM Post #189 |
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Flu viruses can mutate at any time. The concern about this flu virus mutating is not unique. The virus has been analyzed and does not appear to be particularly dangerous. The media has irresponsibly hyped this story from the start demonstrating a total lack of proportionality. Now both the left (anti-corporate) and the right (anti-immigration) are hijacking it for their own purposes. |
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| abb | May 2 2009, 08:34 AM Post #190 |
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I have that book in my "to read" stack. It is of personal interest to me, as it almost caused me to be 'not here.' My mother contracted flu during that epidemic when she was 4 o 5. She can just barely remember it, but always told us she almost died. |
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| wayne fontes | May 2 2009, 09:02 AM Post #191 |
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I picked it up on impulse for a couple of bucks out of the bargain bin at Borders. About half the book traces the establishment of medicine in the US as both a science and a profession. One example would be William Welch who was neither a great doctor or an outstanding scientist. What did he do? He was fund raiser who knew everybody. He spotted the outstanding talents, got them jobs at newly established colleges of medicine and insured that they had funding. It's an easy read: not at all text-booky. |
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| Quasimodo | May 2 2009, 09:47 AM Post #192 |
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One other problem is that a lot more people who wouldn't have ordinarily headed for an emergency room when they feel like they have the flu, are heading straight for the hospital--even if practically speaking they don't need that kind of observation/treatment. This is clogging up the regular work of the emergency clinics. If the flu outbreak here gets more widespread, a frightened populace will be stampeding even faster to the clinics (especially if there are rumors that tamiflu may run out)--whether they really have the flu or not. And they will all have to be seen and processed. (This is not a situation where the number of those seeking help from an emergency room exactly correlates with the number of those actually infected...) But how is someone with flu symptoms to know whether he is at risk unless he does head for the emergency room to be tested? Edited by Quasimodo, May 2 2009, 09:48 AM.
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| Quasimodo | May 2 2009, 10:04 AM Post #193 |
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The ease of contagion is a problem, not just the seriousness of the flu strain itself: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L2468577.htm LONDON, May 2 (Reuters) - One of the two people in Britain to have contracted the new deadly flu strain without having recently visited Mexico said on Saturday he believed he caught the virus during a brief meeting with a work colleague.Barry Greatorex, 42, is one of 13 people in Britain to have tested positive for the new strain of Influenza A (H1N1).He said he caught the disease last week during a half-hour meeting with a colleague who had recently returned from Mexico but had herself so far tested negative."She had a cough then and that's seemingly where I got it," he told Sky News. "I wasn't there too long but it was obviously enough." |
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| Baldo | May 2 2009, 10:49 AM Post #194 |
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Yes the real danger now is it will duplicate the 1918 pandemic and the virus learns. This flu travelled extremely fast because of world's transportation system and thankfully has not been fatal for only but a few. It is interesting how it is spreading to Europe & Asia. Will it mutate? No one knows, but here's to those scientists working on a HINI vaccine. |
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| sceptical | May 2 2009, 10:55 AM Post #195 |
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There are far more cases of H1N1 flu than being reported by the CDC or WHO. For example, this morning the CDC lists 3 cases from Illinois. http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/index.htm Yet the Illinois Department of Public Health lists 88 confirmed and probable cases. http://www.idph.state.il.us/swine_flu/index.htm Those who think this is just a run of the mill flu epidemic are drinking Kool Aid. While there will not be thousands of deaths, the outbreak will be extensive. It will affect schools, workplaces, and transportation, as well as putting a strain on hospital resources. Until summer, there are going to be major disruptions of the economy. And this does not take into account further mutations. |
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