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C.J. Anderson Jersey
Topic Started: Dec 14 2015, 02:41 AM (4 Views)
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Just Pick the Team That Wins Outright? So often we warn gamblers about the mortal sin of using inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The quintessence of that is the rapid circulation of the insipid illogic of "all you have to do is pick the straight up winner of a game and chances are you will have the spread winner." It's always followed by some stat where the outright winner has covered 80 percent of the time. Dah. When an underdog wins they cover 100 percent of the time. The favorite cannot cover unless they win outright. It's impossible. The only scenario in which a team can win and not cover is when the favorite wins but by a smaller margin than the spread. Not shockingly the numbnuts who perpetuate unscientific preposterousness almost always quote stats relevant to the NBA or NFL. In college sports there are more mismatches and hence larger spreads where the margin is larger for a favorite to win and not cover. If a team is a 3.5 point favorite the only way the team that wins will not cover is for the favorite to win by one Cody Latimer Jersey , two or three points. Any other result will have the team that wins covering. At what percentage do these half-wits think a team should win and not cover? Obviously the stupidity of this widely circulated inductive blather can be refuted from now until eternity. Or at least until an underdog wins but fails to cover, whichever comes last. But to those who subscribe to it as if there is any logic, thanks for keeping the books in business for the rest of us. Weather or Not? We do plan on writing an article on how weather affects our football handicapping. But to be honest it's only a minor part of baseball soothsaying. First of all most of our baseball selections are side plays anyway. While bad weather would generally affect a speed team most, we believe in the proverbial adage of both teams having to play under the same weather conditions. As far as totals, wind would be the biggest factor. One could argue about rain or bad conditions hurting an offense or defense more, but when it comes to wind conditions it's hard to argue that wind blowing in from center will benefit the pitchers while if it's blowing straight out it will help the offenses. We won't argue that if wind is blowing out to left field and one team has a left handed pitcher facing a predominately right handed line-up, while the other team has a right-hander on the hill, the team facing the lefty may have a slight edge. But we look at it this way. How often do you hear a manager scratch a pitcher simply because of the wind direction? So if baseball managers seem to think for the most part it will affect pitchers pretty equally we consider from a standpoint of picking sides weather advantage is negligible. Obviously wind direction is important in determining whether the weather benefits an over or under Chris Harris Jr Jersey , but wind speed determines how much. Generally 15 MPH and "gusty" is when sharp players should start paying attention. In football weather is a much more important factor with both sides and totals but we will address that in a future article. I had a nun teacher who used to say, you change your mind as often as the wind blows. I wonder if she bet baseball totals.When do you as a fan say enough?? When do you channel your inner Yogi Berra and say I’m not coming back until this joker is out? Then came news yesterday that the Mets had sold a $200 million dollar stake in the team to hedge fund manager David Einhorn,wholesale joe flacco jersey.? This move was made to improve the financial stability of the organization going forward.? Yeah because when I think of financial stability and the economic collapse of 2008, hedge fund manager automatically comes to mind.? Sure. Ideally I want an owner that reinvests into the team, wants to build a winner, but lets the “baseball people” do their jobs.? If you ask me, there are far too many owners who ask for the moon and stars above,New York Jets Nike Jerseys Chris Harris Jersey , for new tax payer funded stadiums with luxury boxes that price out real fans, with threats that they will leave or that they can’t compete, only to continue their frugal ways after they get what they claim to need. With ownership issues from Los Angeles to New York and even Rush Limbaugh once again hinting at buying the Minnesota Vikings, what owner or ownership group would make you say I just can’t do it anymore? Things were looking up for the New York Mets, well at least stable.? They’d won four straight series (unless one counts a loss to the Florida Marlins in-between), had built up a winning road record, a year after not having won a road series until June 11-13 against Baltimore and an NL series until August 20-22 at Pittsburgh, took the opener of the Subway Series and were on the verge of taking two of three on Sunday Chris Clark Jersey ,Cheap Angels Jerseys,Four years later, UAlbany tries to push Villanova. However it all fell apart in the seventh inning in the Bronx and save for some hitting heroics by Carlos Beltran and Dillon Gee continuing his Bobby JonesRick Reed impression, the Mets were nearly swept by the mediocre Chicago Cubs.? Of course there was also Owner Fred Wilpon going on blast,Capitals Jerseys, reaming Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright and to some extent himself. I understand the superstitious nature of sports fans C.J. Anderson Jersey , baseball fans in particular.? Though I do tend to believe the word “cursed” is more of a cover for poor management than the team not meeting expectations,Getaway Day - Talking Horses - Horse Racing News -.? Perhaps it’s a therapeutic way of rationalizing the fact that fans can’t fire the owner, as much as they can attempt to pressure the organization to fire the GM or Manager.

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