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| "Jobless Recovery" | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: 26 Oct 2009, 05:30 PM (370 Views) | |
| Ryan | 26 Oct 2009, 05:30 PM Post #1 |
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Intellectual
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The talking heads have been using the term "jobless recovery" to state our current economic situation. It means essentially what it purports to be - a recovery from recession (GDP growth) without any job creations (in fact, in practice, it's simply "less" job losses). So - "jobless recovery," hilariously bullshitted oxymoron or sober realistic assessment? |
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| Benthamus | 26 Oct 2009, 06:37 PM Post #2 |
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Intellectual
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A bit of both. Essentially it means that the economy is experiencing growth through an increase in output per effective worker, rather than through an increase in employment. |
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| Maxwell Wilder | 26 Oct 2009, 11:49 PM Post #3 |
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Veteran
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Haha CEO bailout. |
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| Richard | 27 Oct 2009, 02:02 PM Post #4 |
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Minister of Love
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Well, since the GDP is rising, but unemployment rates aren't dropping, it is sadly not a hilarious oxymoron. Ryan (or anyone else who may have expertise in this area) is there any historical precedence for this? |
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| Benthamus | 27 Oct 2009, 09:50 PM Post #5 |
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Intellectual
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Can you elaborate more on your statement "CEO bailout" Max? I am starting get annoyed by your little comments that do no satsify the brain for intellectual thought and rebuttal. |
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| Ryan | 6 Nov 2009, 07:21 PM Post #6 |
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Intellectual
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Here is my opinion. http://ryansafner.com/2009/11/06/jobless-recovery-and-common-jobs-fallacies/ There is no such thing as a jobless recovery, it is made up bullshit. |
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| Lundymaphone | 6 Nov 2009, 08:10 PM Post #7 |
Intellectual
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Ryan signs like GDP growth and increased investment are what is going to drive people to hire again. The firing/lack of hiring was due just as much to business owners fear as much as it was cold hard numbers. The GDP growth/increased investment is required before a recovery can take place. This is a physiological issue more then anything else. |
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| Ryan | 6 Nov 2009, 08:22 PM Post #8 |
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Intellectual
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Psychological [which is what I think you meant to say] issues don't mean much compared to the actual cause-and-effect relationships within the body of economic laws. People get hired and fired because they make profits or cause a firm to lose money. It's as simple as that. During a "boom/bubble" period, rationality is thrown out the window and a mass psychology of "get rich quick," "irrational exuberance," or other phony ideas take over. But whether people actually believe in the economic atmosphere or not, they are in for a reality check once all the economic investments they made go rotten due to the fact that market forces were being toyed with (by the government - specifically the Fed). But in this recession, all of the "growth" that is occurring is also phony. It's fake government stimulus, which, once it wears off, the economy is going to continue to worsen even more than it originally did. There will be prolonged unemployment and economic stagnation. I don't care if people expect things to improve or worsen - economic reality is brutal and uncompromising, regardless of your state of mind. |
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| Lundymaphone | 6 Nov 2009, 08:34 PM Post #9 |
Intellectual
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ya.....the spell check automatically chose that for me.... But if you honestly think people revert to cold hard numbers as opposed to the human element taking over then you can go on thinking that. Frankly, from my experience with people who run companies of various sizes/manage their finances, psychology seems to be the most important initial effect post-crash and effects every step of the decision making process. Knowing people/observing people has taught me that people are far less logical then you give them credit for. As soon as they see numbers starting to peak they begin to hope for a recovery and prepare for it. But if GDP growth/investment /revenue (forgot to add that) begin to perk up it can do far more for business confidence then anything else. Unlike the classroom real life does not fit into a neat little package. Edited by Lundymaphone, 6 Nov 2009, 08:36 PM.
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| Ryan | 6 Nov 2009, 08:43 PM Post #10 |
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Intellectual
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Lundy I'm not following numbers at all - I only demonstrate them to prove that theory works. I'm appealing to the universal laws of human action that are apodictically true. The economy is not run by consumer confidence - it's one of the biggest fallacies of economics. I never said anyone has to be logical. I just said in my last post that people throw logic out of the window in boom times. People are neither omniscient nor do they make all decisions rationally. Psychology might play an important part in an individual firm, but for the aggregate economy as a whole, I think it is fair to say it's modestly irrelevant. People act according to certain universal patterns because it is the way we are hard-wired. The aggregation of their actions, transitively, will also follow a certain pattern in the market. It is only when the market is interfered with (let's say by an expansive monetary policy) does psychology actively play a role in terms of growth/recession, because that intervention by the Central Bank is what causes economic recession! People are led to believe something that is in reality totally and utterly false. They are misled to their own doom. That is the only important psychological factor that I can find. |
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9:25 AM Jul 11