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Brexit is working just as well as I predicted.
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Topic Started: Jun 13 2018, 04:57 AM (92 Views)
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Brewster
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Jun 13 2018, 04:57 AM
Post #1
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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When this long, tortured Brexit deal started out, I predicted it would be long and difficult, and would probably fail entirely. If it was enacted anyway, it would create a recession, particularly in Britain... Let's just see how it's doing in its second agonizing year:
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Brexit cost study: 'Failing to prepare is preparing to fail' Assessing the business costs of Brexit for both the EU27 and the UK hasn't been easy. A consulting firm and a law company have done exactly that, finding that the financial burden on all sides concerned will be huge.
In a unique assessment of the business costs of Brexit, management consulting company Oliver Wyman and law firm Clifford Chance partnered to highlight the impact of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on companies in the EU27 and the UK as they approach a standard, post-Brexit WTO trading relationship.
The study estimates that the direct costs of Brexit will total around $43 billion (€34.9 billion) for EU exporters and around $37.4 billion for British exporters.
The survey focuses on direct impacts and does not include any additional effects stemming from migration, pricing changes or third-country free trade agreements.
According to the study, the automotive sector will be hit hardest in the EU27, although country-level differences will vary considerably.
In Germany, four of its 16 states — Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Lower Saxony — will shoulder around 70 percent of direct impacts as a result of exports to the UK and based on their leading positions in the automotive and manufacturing sectors.
In Britain, the financial services sector is expected to take the biggest hit by far, incurring about one-third of the extra red tape costs. There will also be significant impacts on other industries and firms highly integrated in the European supply chain.
The study emphasizes the need for companies to face the difficulties ahead, saying that firms have to think through the impact on different levels: operations, supply chains, customers and competitors.
"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail," said Jessica Gladstone, partner of Clifford Chance. But she added that "given the difficulty of knowing exactly what turbulence lies ahead, many businesses are putting Brexit in the 'too hard' box."
"Trade after Brexit will be 'complicated and costly'"
Theresa May rejects UK financial services demands on Brexit. The prime minister maintains that Britain is worse off when it abides by decisions made in Brussels. But an industry services lobbying group says finance companies are already fleeing Britain. Link
Theresa May is just lucky that Trump's Circus is taking the heat off Brexit in the News.
Edited by Brewster, Jun 13 2018, 05:22 AM.
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Brewster
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Jun 13 2018, 05:08 AM
Post #2
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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I also predicted Scotland wouldn't go along with this nonsense...
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Trouble BREWS in Scotland as SNP renews attempts to use Brexit to push for independence THERESA MAY could face further headaches as a new poll revealed support for Scottish independence has surged among younger generations who appear keen to embrace their European identity after Brexit. Scottish Brexit minister Michael Russell told Al Jazeera the poll marked the "disillusionment" of youngsters towards Westminster's policies.
The Ipsos Mori survey revealed that while overall support for Scottish independence still falls short of a majority, support among 16 to 34 year-olds is overwhelming.
Mr Russell said: "The poll shows younger people particularly are very disillusioned with the way Westminster is operating and keen to show they are as European as anybody else."
According to the poll, 57 per cent of 16 to 24 year-olds is in favour of independence – with the figure jumping to 59 per cent among 25 to 34 year-olds.
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said in 2017 that the Scottish Government reserved the right to hold a new vote should the final Brexit deal have a negative impact on the Scottish economy.
While the SNP leader was forced to temporarily "reset" her timetable on independence after losing 21 MPs and 500,000 votes in the general election, Ms Sturgeon is expected to revisit the issue when key details of the Brexit agreement will be known.
Ms Sturgeon was has been accused of "stoking grievance" in her crusade for independence after rejecting Theresa May's deal over post-Brexit powers.
Westminster has been at loggerheads with the devolved administrations for more than a year on how powers are transferred when Britain quits the EU.
Both Wales and Scotland expressed concern after the 2016 referendum that Westminster would bring EU treaties into British national law without input from devolved nations on key policies.
Ms Sturgeon has campaigned for all the powers over devolved areas to be transferred straight to Edinburgh, adding that while she agrees there is a need for "common UK frameworks" over some of these powers after Brexit, she does not want Westminster to impose them.
Instead, she has argued that the consent of the Scottish Parliament must be granted before any common frameworks are established.
The UK Government believes those common frameworks must be drawn up by London for the whole of the country and offered to seek the consent of the Scottish Parliament before creating the frameworks.
Yup, smooth as Glass, all the way...
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Berton
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Jun 13 2018, 07:39 AM
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UK economy ‘on course to rebound’ in Q2
The British economy appears to be bouncing back following a period of near-stagnation that had reinforced fears about the impact of Brexit, surveys indicated Tuesday.
Retail sales are said to have grown in May at their highest annual rate in over four years, while car sales recovered further.
And a closely monitored survey of service sector activity found growth running at a three-month high. In their monthly survey of the service sector, financial information company IHS Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply said their so-called purchasing managers’ index for the sector — a broad gauge of business activity — rose to 54 in May from 52.8 the previous month. Anything above 50 indicates expansion.
“The improvement in service sector activity adds to evidence that the economy is on course to rebound in the second quarter,” said Chris Williamson, IHS Markit’s chief business economist........
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Brewster
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Jun 13 2018, 09:52 AM
Post #4
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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Do you think Brexit will be in effect in the second quarter?
Of course not.
So your whole post is irrelevant.
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Berton
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Jun 13 2018, 10:20 AM
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You have been predicting a recession or worse from the day of the vote. It is not happening.
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However, one of the early impacts of Brexit appears to be waning. After the country voted to leave the EU in June 2016, the pound collapsed, raising the cost of imported goods and consequently stoked inflation. That weighed on consumer spending. Now, though, with inflation falling and wages rising, consumer spending appears to be buoyant.
The British Retail Consortium said same-store sales spiked by 2.8 percent in the year to May. That’s the highest increase since January 2014. Barclaycard also reported a 5.1 percent gain in consumer spending from last year, pointing to overall increases following wage growth and falling inflation rates in the economy.
Another sign of an improving consumer backdrop came with the news that new car demand grew by 3.4 percent in the year to May, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders. This is the latest increase following a long run of declines that many industry experts blamed largely on the inflationary impact of the Brexit vote.
Edited by Berton, Jun 13 2018, 10:22 AM.
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Brewster
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Jun 13 2018, 11:22 AM
Post #6
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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And you're lying, as usual. I made no such prediction - you lose again - it's getting to be a habit - looks good on ya.
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Berton
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Jun 13 2018, 11:43 AM
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Back to your insults I see. Even denying what you said in the past. Oh well, you never change.
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Brewster
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Jun 13 2018, 11:50 AM
Post #8
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You do. You keep getting worse.
Your fact-free claims keep getting wilder and wilder.
And as this example shows, you never even ATTEMPT to provide proof.
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Berton
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Jun 13 2018, 01:14 PM
Post #9
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http://s1.zetaboards.com/Fire_And_Ice/single/?p=1501537&t=6113341
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Pat
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Jun 13 2018, 08:01 PM
Post #10
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- Berton
- Jun 13 2018, 01:14 PM
Memory issue I suspect.
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