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what are the odds?
Topic Started: Aug 16 2016, 03:37 AM (249 Views)
Stoned
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Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes 0.3%

Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 2.8%

Clinton wins popular vote 90.5%

Trump wins popular vote 9.5%

Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 2.3%

Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.7%

Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 3.4%

Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 46.0%

Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 1.4%

Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 41.2%

Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 0.7%

Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.4%

Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 88.8%

Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 45.4%
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Brewster
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I think the odds may just have gotten even better than that.

Two states Clinton expected to win, but not necessarily this big:

Washington: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Elway Clinton 43, Trump 24, Johnson 7, Stein 4 Clinton +19

New York: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Siena Clinton 50, Trump 25, Johnson 9, Stein 6 Clinton +25

We're now leaving simple "Double Digit" country for "20 points plus".

RCP's "No Toss Up" Map shows - Trump/Pence 176 - Clinton/Kaine 362

Dare we say "Landslide" Yet?
Edited by Brewster, Aug 16 2016, 03:52 AM.
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Pat
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Stoned
Aug 16 2016, 03:37 AM
Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes0.3%

Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt2.8%

Clinton wins popular vote90.5%

Trump wins popular vote9.5%

Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College2.3%

Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College0.7%

Johnson wins at least one electoral vote3.4%

Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote46.0%

Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote1.4%

Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin41.2%

Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin0.7%

Map exactly the same as in 20120.4%

Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 201288.8%

Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 201245.4%
I wasn't aware the outcome had been decided two and a half months prior to the election. I suppose now we can focus on other issues while Hillary prepares to be impeached.
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Brewster
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Bitter, Bitter....
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Stoned
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Brewster
Aug 16 2016, 04:28 AM
Bitter, Bitter....
The odds are the odds. I didn't make em up. It is a very bleak picture for trump.
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Brewster
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Posting the truth just makes Pat and the other Righties more bitter.
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Berton
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What happens when the truth about Fulltimer being Telcoman is posted?

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Brewster
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Berton
Aug 16 2016, 07:58 AM
What happens when the truth about Fulltimer being Telcoman is posted?

I don't know. I couldn't care less one way or the other.

I only worry about sock puppets invented just so the original poster has someone who agrees with himself.

On Edit: Even then, I don't really care. It's just stupid.
Edited by Brewster, Aug 16 2016, 08:24 AM.
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Berton
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If you care about sock puppets then you care about Paul. He is your sock puppet.

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Brewster
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Talk about Stupid!
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