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Faux Pause: Warmest November On Record
Topic Started: Dec 17 2013, 02:25 AM (930 Views)
Brewster
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Faux Pause 2: Warmest November On Record, Reports NASA, As New Studies Confirm Warming Trend

Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA.

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Of course, the global surface temperature is only one of many indicators the planet just keeps warming, as I wrote in my September post, “Faux Pause: Ocean Warming, Sea Level Rise And Polar Ice Melt Speed Up, Surface Warming To Follow.”

Now two new studies demolish the myth that warming — including surface warming — has not continued apace. Stefan Rahmstorf, Co-Chair of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, discusses the first paper at RealClimate:

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A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared.

“There are no permanent weather stations in the Arctic Ocean, the place on Earth that has been warming fastest,” as New Scientist explained five years ago. “The UK’s Hadley Centre record simply excludes this area, whereas the NASA version assumes its surface temperature is the same as that of the nearest land-based stations.”

As I’ve discussed many times, that’s why we know with high certainty that the planet has actually warmed up more in the past decade than reported by the global temperature records, especially the Hadley Center’s.
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The corrected data (bold lines) are shown compared to the uncorrected ones (thin lines). Via RealClimate.

Rahmstorf explains that two scientists, Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way have devised a new method that uses satellite data to fill in the data gaps:

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Cowtan and Way apply their method to the HadCRUT4 data, which are state-of-the-art except for their treatment of data gaps. For 1997-2012 these data show a relatively small warming trend of only 0.05 °C per decade – which has often been misleadingly called a “warming pause”….

But after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.


And so the pause is faux. The second study also reveals “Global warming is unpaused and stuck on fast forward,” as environmental scientist Dana Nuccitelli explains at Skeptical Science:

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New research by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates how the warming of the Earth’s climate has behaved over the past 15 years compared with the previous few decades. They conclude that while the rate of increase of average global surface temperatures has slowed since 1998, melting of Arctic ice, rising sea levels, and warming oceans have continued apace.

The widespread mainstream media focus on the slowed global surface warming has led some climate scientists like Trenberth and Fasullo to investigate its causes and how much various factors have contributed to the so-called ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus.’ However, the authors note that while the increase in global temperatures has slowed, the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90 percent of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only about 2 percent heating the Earth’s atmosphere. The myth of the ‘pause’ is based on ignoring 98 percent of global warming and focusing exclusively on the one bit that’s slowed.


Here’s a graphic illustration of that:

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A visual depiction of how much global warming heat is going into the various components of the climate system for the period 1993 to 2003, calculated from IPCC AR4 5.2.2.3

As Nuccitelli explains, this study “also casts doubt on the conclusions of a few recent studies that estimated the Earth’s climate is less sensitive to the increased greenhouse effect than previously thought”:

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Trenberth and Fasullo note that using their ocean heating estimate by itself would increase the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimate in the paper referenced by Ridley from 2°C to 2.5°C average global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and using other more widespread accepted values would bring the estimate in line with the standard value of 3°C.

… the main point of the paper is that global warming is stuck on fast forward. Ice continues to melt, sea levels continue to rise, and the oceans continue to warm rapidly.

In fact, “Greenland Ice Melt Up Nearly Five-Fold Since Mid-1990s,” as we reported in November 2012. Another study that month found “sea level rising 60% faster than projected.”

No wonder Politifact Texas rates the claim, “The Earth is not warming,” as “PANTS ON FIRE – The statement is not accurate and makes a ridiculous claim.”
LINK

Of Course, Neut & Co only believe Politifact if it says Obama is Lying. Otherwise they're just another Lib rag...
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Pat
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If I could figure out how to maneuver in this browser I would post a link, so google the article and see the before and after photos and graphs.

Coastal Antarctic Permafrost Melting Faster Than Expected

July 24, 2013

AUSTIN, Texas — For the first time, scientists have documented an acceleration in the melt rate of permafrost, or ground ice, in a section of Antarctica where the ice had been considered stable. The melt rates are comparable with the Arctic, where accelerated melting of permafrost has become a regularly recurring phenomenon, and the change could offer a preview of melting permafrost in other parts of a warming Antarctic continent.

A block of ice calved off the Garwood Valley ice cliff.
Research team member Jim O'Connor of the USGS inspects a block of ice calved off the Garwood Valley ice cliff. Photo by Joseph Levy, University of Texas Institute for Geophysics.

Tracking data from Garwood Valley in the McMurdo Dry Valleys region of Antarctica, Joseph Levy, a research associate at The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Geophysics, shows that melt rates accelerated consistently from 2001 to 2012, rising to about 10 times the valley’s historical average for the present geologic epoch, as documented in the July 24 edition of Scientific Reports.

Scientists had previously considered the region’s ground ice to be in equilibrium, meaning its seasonal melting and refreezing did not, over time, diminish the valley’s overall mass of ground ice.

Instead, Levy documented through LIDAR and time-lapse photography a rapid retreat of ground ice in Garwood Valley, similar to the lower rates of permafrost melt observed in the coastal Arctic and Tibet.

Location of McMurdo Dry Valleys
Garwood Valley lies within the McMurdo Dry Valleys region of Antarctica. Image: Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica.

“The big tell here is that the ice is vanishing — it’s melting faster each time we measure,” said Levy, who noted that there are no signs in the geologic record that the valley’s ground ice has retreated similarly in the past. “This is a dramatic shift from recent history.”

Ground ice is more prevalent in the Arctic than in Antarctica, where glaciers and ice sheets dominate the landscape. In contrast to glaciers and ice sheets, which sit on the ground, ground ice sits in the ground, mixed with frozen soil or buried under layers of sediment. Antarctica’s Dry Valleys contain some of the continent’s largest stretches of ground ice, along the coast of the Ross Sea.

After Levy and colleagues noted visible effects of ground ice retreat in Garwood Valley, they began to monitor the valley, combining time-lapse photography and weather-station data at 15-minute intervals to create a detailed view of the conditions under which the ice, a relict from the last ice age, is being lost.

Rising temperatures do not account for the increased melting in Garwood Valley. The Dry Valleys overall experienced a well-documented cooling trend from 1986 to 2000, followed by stabilized temperatures to the present.

Rather, Levy and his co-authors attribute the melting to an increase in radiation from sunlight stemming from changes in weather patterns that have resulted in an increase in the amount of sunlight reaching the ground.

Timelapse imagery of the ice loss in Garwood Valley
Timelapse imagery of ice loss in Garwood Valley, Nov. 2010 to Jan. 2012. The period represents the start and end of one summer season (Nov. 2010-Jan. 2011) followed by the end of the next season (Jan. 2012). The views were generated with biannual LiDAR scans of the valley. The University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics.

Sunlight tends to bounce off the white, reflective surfaces of glaciers and ice sheets, but the darker surfaces of dirty ground ice can absorb greater amounts of solar radiation. Thick layers of sediment tend to insulate deeply buried ground ice from sunlight and inhibit melting. But thin sediment layers have the opposite effect, effectively cooking the nearby ice and accelerating melt rates.

As the ground ice melts, the frozen landscape sinks and buckles, creating what scientists describe as “retrogressive thaw slumps.” An acceleration in the prevalence of such slumps has been well documented in the Arctic and other permafrost regions, but not in Antarctica.

Levy’s research shows that even under the stable temperature conditions of the Dry Valleys, recent increases in sunlight are leading to Arctic-like slump conditions.

If Antarctica warms as predicted during the coming century, the melting and slumping could become that much more dramatic as warmer air temperatures combine with sunlight-driven melting to thaw ground ice even more quickly.

Ground ice is not the major component of Antarctica’s vast reserves of frozen water, but there are major expanses of ground ice in the Dry Valleys, the Antarctic Peninsula and the continent’s ice-free islands.

Garwood Valley could tell the story of what will happen in these “coastal thaw zones,” says Levy.

“There's a lot of buried ice in these low-elevation coastal regions, and it is primed to melt.”

Co-authors on the paper were Andrew Fountain of Portland State University, James Dickson and James Head of Brown University, Marianne Okal of UNAVCO, David Marchant of Boston University and Jaclyn Watters of The University of Texas at Austin.

The research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.

Additional Images

For additional images at high-resolution, please see the version of this press release at the Jackson School of Geosciences site.

For more information, contact: J.B. Bird, Jackson School of Geosciences, 512-750-3512 (cell), 512 232 9623.

Tags: Research, Antarctica, climate change, geophysics, Institute for Geophysics, polar, polar studies

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Pat
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Another thing i found out, the Antarctic ice is melting from below, I'm not sure what causes that but suffice to say the polar cap is shrinking. We now have ice sheets that are causing serious problems with shipping. They are not ice bergs but sheets the size of a state.
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Brewster
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Pat, the ice in the Antarctic is melting from below because those sheets extend well out into the ocean while still attached to the land, and there's warm currents from further North flowing under the ice.

The surface isn't melting near as fast because central Antarctica is under several miles of ice, making the surface higher than most mountain ranges, and therefore the air is very cold. That cold air is flowing out from the centre to the shore, producing extreme conditions which will stay well below freezing for a few more decades.
Edited by Brewster, Dec 17 2013, 07:20 AM.
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Berton
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Berton
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Brewster
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Berton, I'm glad that I peeked at that last post of yours... I've had a bad week, and needed a good belly laugh.

You post a chart put together by the biggest proven liar in the whole Climate Denial industry, (Monckton) posted in the second-biggest liar's website, (Watts). And neither you, Monckton, nor Watts include a single link to any data set.

Monckton himself even says you won't see that chart anywhere else, and that's probably the first honest statement our pseudo-Lord has made in several years. Nobody else would post such self-evident trash.

I originally had no idea where he got the data, he says RSS, but I looked that up, and there's nothing close. Lord Haha has a history of "Tipping" charts, so that was my guess for this one.

BTW, did you notice that Our Dear Lord's chart doesn't even match your own widget? Your own stuff proves the three of you are liars!

But then I found The Truth. (Incidentally, the article includes other famous Monckton Lies.)

A bit more proof about Monckton the Liar.

Actually, I don't need any more proof Monckton's a liar - it's all over the Internet. This is not directly related to climate, but it does show Monckton's versatility:Monckton will Lie about Anything!

Bertie, you are just about the most Gullible person I have ever read. (Keep working, you may pass Neut yet!)

:hystery: :hystery: :hystery: :hystery: :hystery: :hystery:

Back on Ignore. My tolerance for stupidity isn't what it used to be.
Edited by Brewster, Dec 17 2013, 01:20 PM.
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Well science has never been Bertons forte.
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Berton
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As I said, Berton has no interest in the actual science. He continuosly puts up stuff from politcally motivated websites and tries to pass it off as science. The post above is just the latest example of this. I guess in some ways you can't blame him, he has no idea or training on how to interpret data for himself, so he reaches out to debateble sources to do it for it for him and generally comes up wrong. The problem is he goes out purposely looking for poltically tained information rather than actual science. it is very easy to cheery pick data or post data that is pout of context in the wider picture and come up with decetions.

The flaws in his latest website are outlined here:

LINK

As for the owner of the website, he actually does have qualifications, he is part of the 1% of poeple in that field who are skeptics. In other words his opinion is in contrast with the vast majority of other scientists & evidence to the contrary. Is that bad? No not really, skepticims is healthy, but the problem is guys like Berton latch onto this very small minority, not out of interest in the actual science but in an attempt to try & justify what is just a politcal opinion on their part. They have no interest or training to investigate the facts.

http://denierlist.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/dr-ole-humlum/




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