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Gallup Finds Unemployment Climbing to Nine Percent in February
Topic Started: Feb 22 2012, 07:03 PM (580 Views)
Jim Miller
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Gallup Finds Unemployment Climbing to Nine Percent in February


(CNSNews.com) – Unemployment in the U.S. rose to nine percent in mid-February, up from 8.3 percent a month earlier, according to a new Gallup survey. The polling company said this suggests that it is “premature” to assume the economy will not feature prominently in the 2012 election season.

Gallup figures typically provide an indication of what the government will report at the end of the month.

“The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February,” Gallup said in its mid-month unemployment survey, released on February 17. “The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.”

Gallup said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures.

Gallup’s mid-month figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so may not predict the official unemployment rate precisely. However, because Gallup and BLS both conduct their unemployment surveys at the same time – in the middle of the month – Gallup’s early figures can provide a barometer of where the official rate is likely headed.

“Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February,” Gallup said.

The survey also found that “underemployment” – those unemployed and those working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable – rose to 19 percent, up from the 18.7 percent Gallup found in January.
Gallup

Gallup said its report reflected a continuing trend of weakness in U.S. labor markets, marking a “sharp deterioration” in job market conditions.

“Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January.”

That decline was consistent with an economy struggling with weak growth and rising energy prices, Gallup said, making it “premature” to think that the economy would not be a major factor in November’s presidential elections.

“Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012.”

Gallup’s survey is a random telephone tracking survey of 30,000 adults conducted through February 15, whereas BLS’s survey is done over one week in the middle of each month and surveys 60,000 households. BLS adjusts its results for seasonal changes in the job market – regular changes in the labor market that occur every year and aren’t reflective of the demand for labor or the supply of available jobs, such as temporary hiring around the holiday shopping season.

Since Gallup’s figures are not seasonally adjusted, the 0.7 percent rise in unemployment tracked in its survey almost certainly includes some of the seasonal factors that typically contribute to unemployment after the holiday shopping season.

Nonetheless, Gallup predicted that BLS would find an increase in unemployment in February.

“Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline – both of which could drive down its unemployment rate – it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February.”

CNSNews.com is not funded by the government like NPR. CNSNews.com is not funded by the government like PBS.
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Stoney
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That's okay according to another thread. The fat cats on Wall Street are doing well.
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Jim Miller
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Ignoring the unemployed and keeping them dependent on government seems to be Obama's main goal.
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Mountainrivers
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Stoney
Feb 22 2012, 07:04 PM
That's okay according to another thread. The fat cats on Wall Street are doing well.
When the markets are up, most stock market investors are doing well. What's your point?
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Chris
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I thought we were just looking at reports unemployment is down. Now it's actually up?
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Mountainrivers
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Chris
Feb 22 2012, 09:29 PM
I thought we were just looking at reports unemployment is down. Now it's actually up?
"Since Gallup’s figures are not seasonally adjusted, the 0.7 percent rise in unemployment tracked in its survey almost certainly includes some of the seasonal factors that typically contribute to unemployment after the holiday shopping season."

From millers OP.
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Chris
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OK, but that is predictive of "the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures."
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Mountainrivers
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Chris
Feb 22 2012, 09:36 PM
OK, but that is predictive of "the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures."
Rather than post it as if it has already been reported, why not wait until the report comes out and then post your criticism.
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Gee I thought the rights argument was that when the rich make money they hire.............................now they are upset the market is up and claiming unemployment is going up.................hmmmmmm........that does not fit their core beliefs
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Chris
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Mountainrivers
Feb 22 2012, 10:09 PM
Chris
Feb 22 2012, 09:36 PM
OK, but that is predictive of "the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures."
Rather than post it as if it has already been reported, why not wait until the report comes out and then post your criticism.
Didn't I say it's predictive? I don't know what probability to assign to that prediction, but I'd say it's highly likely. As probabilities go, for single events, it could of course go either way. Sort of like climate change.
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