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| Questions for Brewster; A conversation | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Feb 21 2012, 01:25 AM (992 Views) | |
| Brewster | Feb 21 2012, 04:19 AM Post #11 |
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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I expect at least one major Climactic disaster in the next 6 years, Pat. While you live in a reasonably safe zone, so physical damage is unlikely, I fully expect the disaster to completely change food prices, (double?) and taxes will have to be raised at least 25% to cover damages. Can you handle it? It is highly unlikely that you would recognize the planet by 2060 if we continue on our present course. Edited by Brewster, Feb 21 2012, 05:39 AM.
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| Pat | Feb 21 2012, 05:52 AM Post #12 |
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Fire & Ice Senior Diplomat
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I was just thinking back 60 years Brew, and comparing Washington state now to what the climate was like in 1952. We had more snowfall on average, and snow is good for thirsty plants and people. There are more irrigation systems in place and better water conservation, so nothing I can think of agriculture wise has changed. What I notice Brew is people are very adaptable organisms. Would you agree? From some post I read, I understand you have been discussing global warming on a variety of discussion forums for roughly a decade. Has your life been altered drastically in the past ten years? Mine hasn't. Edited by Pat, Feb 21 2012, 05:53 AM.
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| Brewster | Feb 21 2012, 06:26 AM Post #13 |
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As I said before, you live in a relatively benign area, so things have changed less there than most. Even at that, as you say, what used to be a lush area now takes irrigation to maintain. and Global Warming is just getting started. I would say we're about 10 years into really observeable results. What will happen in another 20 years - what will take the place of the irrigation systems farmers depend upon now? Desalinating ocean water? How much will that drive prices up? Yup. In the time of the Romans, the Sahara was a lush grassland, growing enough wheat, etc. to feed the entire empire. Now it's a desert, and people moved north and south. Now southern Africa is almost as big a desert as the Sahara, and people are starving. On top of that, Spain, Portugal, Greece, etc. need to import greater and greater amounts of food, driving up prices, and the massive food imports are one more reason (of many) why their countries are going bankrupt. So where will all those people go next? Can they adapt to no food at all? Is the US prepared to take all those millions in? The fact is, we can adapt to many things, but we still need food, and we still need space. And there will be less and less of both as desertification spreads across the globe. Yes I have, a least a decade. Food prices are up, I don't own a pair of winter boots any more, I own an Air Conditioner, and I haven't plugged my car in in years, but not much else. But like you, I live in a rather benign part of the world. If I lived in Africa or Australia, or many parts of Asia, I have a feeling life would be very different experience. The big difference is that when I started talking about AGW, it was pretty much all theory - temps were rising, but it had little actual effect. Now the signs are everywhere - ice is melting, food prices are rising, every year leads to more snowfalls, tornadoes, floods, etc. You and I cannot avoid it for much longer. Edited by Brewster, Feb 21 2012, 06:31 AM.
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| Pat | Feb 21 2012, 06:40 AM Post #14 |
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I think populations will continue to migrate Brew, and I think if forced sterilization does not come to pass, the problem of starving populations will be handled by nature, the great equalizer. The strain on food supplies has more to do with adding five billion or so people to the food line than climate changes. In 60 years, given the multiplier affect, another 50 billion or so people will be more of a concern than the climate, in my opinion. Africa and Asia are two areas you brought up, coincidentally, that's where the big increases in births has occurred. Wouldn't you agree that the number of mouths needing fed is the real issue, not climate or weather patterns? We have plenty of water Brew, it's just a matter of delivering it where needed. And we have plenty of food being grown. As demand rises, the producers raise their prices. Nothing weird about that is there? Apparently Brew, with each year that passes and no real affect on your or my lifestyles, outside the increase in population, there is nothing to really be worried about. Moving the goalposts forward when the dire predictions would come true seems dishonest to me. Wouldn't you agree? Edited by Pat, Feb 21 2012, 06:42 AM.
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| Brewster | Feb 21 2012, 07:01 AM Post #15 |
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Massive increases in population will not help, in fact make things much worse. But even if the population flatlined right now, we are pouring a Trillion pounds of carbon into the atmosphere every 6 days as it is. We can foul things up just fine. No. This has nothing to do with population. ![]() And this is one of the least populated areas of Texas: ![]() Nope, but the law also implies supply. In the past, we could always increase supply. Now we can't. As for your strange assertion that "We have plenty of water", take a look at this:Thirty-Six U.S. States to Face Water Shortages in the Next Five Years No. The fact that you and I have lucked out and temporarily avoided the worst effects of AGW doesn't change the fact that disaster is coming. My message hasn't changed in a decade, no goalposts have moved. The only thing that's changed is that it's happening faster than Climatologists originally predicted, and in more ways than were suspected at the time. On Edit: I'm not saying that population isn't having an effect, and undoubtedly having a few billion less people would help. But I'm never going to demand the draconian Big Government solution of mass euthanasia. Edited by Brewster, Feb 21 2012, 07:20 AM.
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| colo_crawdad | Feb 21 2012, 07:20 AM Post #16 |
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Just one of those side comments. It appears that what Pat is talking about is consistent with the theories of Thomas Robert Malthus. |
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| Pat | Feb 21 2012, 07:21 AM Post #17 |
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Brew, I'm not in favor of forced sterilization either, as it's none of my business what somebody else does with their body. I merely suggested that as a humane solution that some might take to avoid starvation death or death by dehydration. Nature will step in and deal with what human beings refuse to do. At present Brew, there is plenty of drinking water and in fact, each family flushed or lets run down the drain thousands of gallons a week of the stuff. But the population breeding as it does will one day end all surplus long before climate has any say. In my opinion. I think you should check population and birth statistics Brew. Africa is fertile breeding ground and home to people who have pushed the envelope on sustainability on that continent. I'm pretty sure I have read more than once that Africa is a source of much of the population explosion. Wouldn't it be easier Brew to reduce the population than to approach CO2, which is nothing more than a reflection of human activity? Less people, less pollution. Do you know any town Brew in North America where starvation is a threat do to the weather variations these past tne years or so? I don't. |
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| Brewster | Feb 21 2012, 07:27 AM Post #18 |
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Since the populated part of North America is less than 3% of the Earth's surface, that's not a very convincing argument, Pat. Do you really think the less fortunate in the world are going to stand by quietly and starve to death for our convenience while we continue to live the life of luxury? (Of course, as I've said before, that's really only temporary - sooner or later we will be as bad off as anyone else in the world.) Edited by Brewster, Feb 21 2012, 07:29 AM.
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| Brewster | Feb 21 2012, 07:35 AM Post #19 |
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Hmmm - my wife is starting to b*tch about the amount of time I'm spending on the computer today... Time to shut 'er down for a while. |
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| Pat | Feb 21 2012, 07:48 AM Post #20 |
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Mine has been harping at me too. I want to continue this conversation, so we will just have to pick it up again later, when the coast is clear. Something for you to chew on. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_event |
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