Quote:

 

Obama conflicted over Palestine question

Exactly a year ago this week, President Barack Obama stood at the podium at the UN General Assembly and declared his support for a Palestinian state.

“Palestinians will never know the pride and dignity that comes with their own state,” Mr Obama told the general assembly, unless the two parties reached a peace agreement.

So it will be some degree of awkwardness that Mr Obama returns to the UN this week and directs his representatives to vote against a plan that would lead to Palestinians achieving that exact destination, albeit by a different route.

Indeed, the US president will be acutely aware how hypocritical he must appear: voicing support for democratic transitions across the Middle East at the same time as scuppering Palestinian aspirations for recognition. Mr Obama hardly wants to be seen as being on the wrong side of the change sweeping through the Arab world.

Palestinian leaders this week plan to make a bid for full membership of the UN, a move that would officially make it a state, Palestine, on an equal footing with Israel. But the US has explicitly stated that it will use its veto power through the Security Council to block any such move.

Washington has long insisted that the only way to arrive at a Palestinian state is through negotiation and US presidents have long shunned the UN as the vehicle for getting there.

The Palestinians could cut their losses and opt for a lesser goal – becoming a non-voting observer at the UN, the status currently enjoyed by the Vatican. The US could still vote a non-veto “no” in the general assembly but the Palestinians would almost certainly still succeed.

Both are bad options for Mr Obama and either would further diminish the US’s standing the Middle East.

Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi Arabian ambassador to the US and part of the ruling family, last week warned that an American veto would end the allies’ “special relationship” and would make the US “toxic” in the Arab world.

Blocking the move would also undercut the US’s authority as a genuine mediator in the peace process that Mr Obama has only half-heartedly pursued since taking office.

The peace process broke down last year after a stand-off over Jewish settlements in occupied territories, and even putting aside the wide differences between the two protagonists, prospects remain gloomy.

In Egypt, until this year at peace with Israel and a supporter of the process, protesters attacked the Israeli embassy, forcing the evacuation of the ambassador. Meanwhile in Syria, whose occupied Golan Heights make it a crucial player, the regime has rather more pressing priorities in the shape of a six-month rebellion that will not be quashed.

The chances of protests, particularly in the West Bank, if Palestinians are emboldened by a veto, are not insignificant. Nor are the chances of an offensive response from Israel. The US could further inflame the situation if Congress makes good on its pledge to cut off its $600m in annual aid.

Mr Obama also has domestic political considerations to bear in mind.

With 14 months to go until voters decide whether to give him a second term, the president hardly wants to run afoul of the powerful Jewish lobby in the US and the millions of dollars it has to inject into political campaigns.

For all these reasons, the administration has been trying to make the whole issue go away.

It is trying the full gamut of diplomatic tricks – from sending senior officials to Jerusalem and Ramallah almost as soon as they arrived back from the previous attempt to broker a deal, to issuing rather pessimistic warnings.

Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, put it simply: “What will change in the real world for the Palestinian people,” the day after any vote, she asked. The answer: nothing.

In the days leading up to the expected vote this week, the US will continue to do everything it can to avoid this “train-wreck” scenario, as it is being called in Washington.

Coming up with a fix that both the Israelis and the Palestinians can accept will be difficult – though not impossible, as the ticking clock focuses minds. But the chances are that the Obama administration’s key task this week is going to be damage limitation.