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The Loser Can At Least Blame Sandy
Topic Started: Oct 31 2012, 11:50 PM (300 Views)
Zechariah
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Zechariah
Will presidential election loser blame hurricane Sandy?


If President Obama's reelection bid fails, his staff may cite lost days of campaigning. If Mitt Romney falls short, his campaign could point to a perception that hurricane Sandy stopped his momentum.

Will the loser in next week’s presidential election blame his fate on hurricane Sandy? “First Read” over at NBC News raised that question Wednesday, and we think it’s interesting. That’s because it gets at the fine line between actual effects and magical thinking, which is part of so many expert narratives about political campaigns.

As the First Read gang notes, “Given how close this election is, it won’t be surprising if the losing side ends up blaming Sandy, whether it’s fair or not.”

If President Obama fails in his bid for a second term, his staff may turn around and point at the three days of campaigning he’s lost to Sandy-related activities.


IN PICTURES: Sandy – chronicle of an unrelenting storm

If Mitt Romney falls short in his bid to unseat Mr. Obama, his campaign could ascribe the loss to the perception that Sandy “elevated the president and stopped the momentum narrative for Romney,” First Read writes.

There are ways Sandy could really affect voting outcomes next Tuesday, of course. Pennsylvania got hammered; if flooding and lack of power depresses turnout in heavily Democratic Philadelphia, it is possible the Keystone State could swing to Mr. Romney, providing him a path to 270 electoral votes. If New Jersey’s Republican Gov. Chris Christie continues to praise Obama for his storm response, it is possible some swing voters in, say, Virginia will be impressed.

Single events have already appeared to sway the course of the 2012 campaign. Romney rose substantially in the polls following his strong performance in the first presidential debate.

But “elevated the president and stopped the momentum narrative for Romney”? Please. Saying that wouldn’t be punditry. It would be soothsaying.

We’re not picking on First Read here: They’re not saying they believe that stuff themselves. They’re saying other people might say it in the face of defeat, and they’re right about that. Romney, Obama, it wouldn’t matter. Both sides have officials/surrogates/partisans who could utter that kind of thing with a completely straight face.

Which brings us to our main point: We’ve come to political punditry at a relatively advanced point in our journalistic career, and we’re constantly surprised by its imprecision. It’s like sportswriting (which we’ve also done) without the intellectual discipline imposed by the feedback loop of player stats and game scores.

“Shaping the narrative” is one of our favorite phrases. When you hear somebody say that on one of the shouting-pundit cable shows, your internal horse-patty detector should go off. “Defining expectations” is another. “Momentum” is in general a suspect subject, though it’s a bit more solid since you can always check actual polls. And so on. If you’ve made it this far, we’re sure you can provide plenty of your own examples.

So beware folks spouting off about the “Sandy effect” as if they’re sure what it is. Losers need scapegoats, and it’s easier to point the finger at a 500-mile-wide storm than at their candidate or his campaign.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/1031/Will-presidential-election-loser-blame-hurricane-Sandy
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Black Republican
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Black people don't vote when the weather is bad so who is that going to affect?
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UTB

We all know that Rommey prayed to the God of Mormon for this hurricane to occur! It's all Rommey's fault!
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Rick1
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At this point in the race, there is no need for any more campaigning. If they aren't known by now it's over anyways.
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G. A. W.
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Rick, there is some truth to that statement...... I agree....

Most people knew a long time ago who they were going to vote for.....

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Mal

Black Republican
Nov 1 2012, 12:00 AM
Black people don't vote when the weather is bad so who is that going to affect?
Why do you lie so much Black Republican/kenneth. Nothing you post on your own blog is the truth. Black people are voting in higher numbers than we did in 2008

In the first two days of early voting in Florida, nearly a quarter (23.7 percent) of the electorate was African American. We’ve seen consistently strong turnout in predominately African American areas of Broward and Dade counties, with big crowds patiently waiting hours to cast their votes. Yesterday 1,200 people marched from Bethune Cookman University, an HBCU in Daytona Beach, to vote early.

The historically high turnout among African Americans in North Carolina four years ago was one of the reasons President Obama carried the state by just 14,000 votes. But what’s even more impressive is what’s happening this year: 83,155 more African Americans have already voted this year than had at this point in 2008. More African Americans age 24 and younger are voting this time than in 2008, and the same is true among African America voters between the ages of 25 and 34. In both cases, their share of votes is outpacing their share of the voting population.

We’re seeing these promising trends across the country. Here are a few facts:

Registration: African-American voter registration is up dramatically since 2008 in every battleground state. It’s especially high in places like Colorado, where it’s up 20 percent, Iowa (13 percent), Nevada (12 percent) and Florida (10 percent).
Early voting: Early voting among African Americans is up dramatically in battleground states. It’s up 17 percent or more in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina.
Enthusiasm: African Americans are most enthusiastic about voting in this election—nearly 20 percentage points higher than all voters.
Vote likelihood: 85 percent of registered African American voters say they will “definitely” vote—higher than all other registered voters.
Every election, more and more African Americans come out to vote. Since 1992, African Americans have increased their share of the electorate nearly every single time—from just 8 percent in 1992 to 13 percent four years ago. Between 2004 and 2008, participation among African Americans grew more than any other group. In 2012, we’re going to see these records break once again en route to re-electing President
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72MiMi
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Black Republican
Nov 1 2012, 12:00 AM
Black people don't vote when the weather is bad so who is that going to affect?
Well since there's a question about your ethnicity why are you concerned?
People are already voting and a lot of them are black so what's next?
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Zechariah
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Zechariah
I think BR should begin to focus on 2016, for all it's worth. :'(
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