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Toronto Mayoral Race
Topic Started: Monday 20-09-2010, 03:33 (875 Views)
lostifyed
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Bench Warmer
The fact of the matter is, that Canadian polling numbers are highly unreliable. AKOS, Harris-Decima, and numerous others use a very small sample number to determine their data. For the most part, these firms rarely use over 1,000 people as their sample.

I've never heard of Nanos Research, and it sounds like a smaller research firm. If AKOS and Harris rarely use 1,000; just what is a small research firm using as a sample?

700 people in a sample that will represent over 2 million people is hardly representative, and I for one, do not believe that it is reflective of how the vote in Toronto will actually go.

Furthermore, with so many candidates now involved in the mayoral race, there is no way to accurately predict what will happen. Effectively, we are looking at a "Green Effect"; where a party/candidate polls well before and during the election, but has their support evaporate on election day.

Also, keep in mind that Canadians are strange voters. With a Conservative Government in Ottawa, Canadians usually turn to centrist and left wing parties and politicians provincially. Of course, their are exceptions to this, but it is generally what occurs. Call it Canadian pragmatism.

McGuinty's Liberals aren't very popular at the moment, for a myriad of reasons, and that may very well be hampering the candidacy of some, like George Smitherman. However, as we get closer to election day (and more information comes out about the candidates), Torontonians may become more likely to turn to the 'devil they know' as opposed to the one that they don't.

As such, a candidate with less baggage and less extreme views than Mr. Ford, would become more palpable to the larger number of voters. Effectively, Mr. Ford is probably un-electable in an office of higher accountability than the one he has currently obtained.

And given the multicultural fabric of Canada, and Toronto in particular, as more and more people find out about the comments Mr. Ford has made in the past, his chances of electoral victory will diminish.
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Leaffan20
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Don't Blink!
Lostofyed, everyone!
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Curtis
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Warning: Admin On Duty
Leaffan20
Monday 20-09-2010, 15:23
Lostofyed
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BoctorBoda
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The Godfather
Excellent and well-thought out rebuttal, Jeffrey
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highbird_harry
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YOU'RE NOTHING TO ME BUT CUSTOMERS!
Curtis
Monday 20-09-2010, 15:24
Leaffan20
Monday 20-09-2010, 15:23
Lostofyed
hoe magnet is not amused!
Fröken Coach Drrr: "rape is just surprise sex you didn't know you wanted!"

Captain Catastrophe: "mal is worse than gadaffi"

TLG: "CHING CHONG bitch GIMME DAT SWEET KUSH CHINESE FOOD"

Paco : "TLG you seem to be getting dumber by the day"


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Curtis
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Certainly not!
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highbird_harry
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YOU'RE NOTHING TO ME BUT CUSTOMERS!
i can tell. but where does the hate come from?

Fröken Coach Drrr: "rape is just surprise sex you didn't know you wanted!"

Captain Catastrophe: "mal is worse than gadaffi"

TLG: "CHING CHONG bitch GIMME DAT SWEET KUSH CHINESE FOOD"

Paco : "TLG you seem to be getting dumber by the day"


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Leaffan20
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Don't Blink!
oh men watching mayoral debate on TV
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Cuckoo Bananas Hupu
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Tobias... you blowhard!
http://torontoist.com/2010/09/rob_ford_has_sort_of_a_plan_kinda.php
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"everything you say is fucking retarded you stupid stoner!" - Bsrj

"I don't take baths to get clean!" - Bsrj
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bsrj22
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ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL
Guy looks like a fruitcake.
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Curtis
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Bsrj22
Saturday 9-10-2010, 23:38
Guy looks like a fruitcake.
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Uli Kunkel
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I have to ask, what's a Toronto?
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Leaffan20
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Don't Blink!
Tomorrow is the big day! Lets see what happens.
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ff_zero
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The Godfather
Is there a chance still?
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Leaffan20
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Don't Blink!
lol he's in the lead still in polls, though all thee politicians who have backed out have supported Smitherman in an anti-Ford campaign. They can't figure out why he's still very popular. In my neighbourhood (since its where he's from) his signs are on pretty much every other house. Our councillor will get his votes as well since he endorsed him etc. TBH though both platforms are shit.
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