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What Would Go Extinct?
Topic Started: Nov 3 2016, 12:31 PM (3,426 Views)
CaledonianWarrior96
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I don't know if this topic deserves it's own thread or not, but I did think of something that I thought could do more than if I placed in QTDNTOT. So basically in evo continuum projects we see some of the same animals and plants dying out given that it seems unlikely they could survive the Holocene Extinction Event going on now. Creatures of note including bears, bovines, elephants, some whales, most amphibians and so on.

What I'm getting at is how likely is it that some of them will actually die out in the HEE? Like look at wolves for example; in some projects (mine included) they are seen to have died out in the HEE, but would there be any actual reason for them to die out? Sure they are hunted but they have a wide range, live in different habitats, prey on different animals and currently aren't registered as vulnerable or below that category. Wolves are just one example but how likely is it that other commonly doomed species actually are doomed to extinction?
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Rodlox
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CaledonianWarrior96
Nov 3 2016, 12:31 PM
I don't know if this topic deserves it's own thread or not, but I did think of something that I thought could do more than if I placed in QTDNTOT. So basically in evo continuum projects we see some of the same animals and plants dying out given that it seems unlikely they could survive the Holocene Extinction Event going on now. Creatures of note including bears, bovines, elephants, some whales, most amphibians and so on.

What I'm getting at is how likely is it that some of them will actually die out in the HEE? Like look at wolves for example; in some projects (mine included) they are seen to have died out in the HEE, but would there be any actual reason for them to die out? Sure they are hunted but they have a wide range, live in different habitats, prey on different animals and currently aren't registered as vulnerable or below that category. Wolves are just one example but how likely is it that other commonly doomed species actually are doomed to extinction?
this deserves its own thread.

I imagine its a patchwork (or a math sentence) of reasons that can result in an HEE wipeout - and maybe could apply to any other extinction event...

* habitat fragmentation: its no good having a range all across, say, North America or the Asian steppes, if you can only survive in one nature reserve here, and another a hundred miles away, and a third another hundred in another direction. even if all three sites survive an HEE, would they find each other in time, or not?

* resiliance: see also the cancers in Tasmanian Devils, or the genetic bottleneck cheetahs underwent about a million or so years ago - both of those problems only compound the difficulty in conservation work.

* conservation dependence: while maybe not as much as the Dusky Seaside Sparrow, some species are fairly reliant on conservation workers to keep their population numbers even holding steady - for a long while, California Condors and Giant Pandas both fit that label. thus when humans die off, they'd follow us into that long night.

there are other categories, no doubt; i hope this is a good start.
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CaledonianWarrior96
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Quote:
 
* habitat fragmentation: its no good having a range all across, say, North America or the Asian steppes, if you can only survive in one nature reserve here, and another a hundred miles away, and a third another hundred in another direction. even if all three sites survive an HEE, would they find each other in time, or not?


I've actually never given fragmentation any thought. I mean what use is having the range of the Northern Hemisphere but you only live in 5% of that range. And while that could lead to speciation in some organisms, it won't bode well for those that have populations too small or lacking in genetic diversity to be able to carry on their species for much longer
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- Official Project
- Foundation
The Beryoni Galaxy: The Biologically Rich and Politically Complex State of our Galaxy (Habitational Zone)

- Beryoni Critique Thread (formerly: Aliens of Beryoni)
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Rodlox
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CaledonianWarrior96
Nov 3 2016, 04:59 PM
Quote:
 
* habitat fragmentation: its no good having a range all across, say, North America or the Asian steppes, if you can only survive in one nature reserve here, and another a hundred miles away, and a third another hundred in another direction. even if all three sites survive an HEE, would they find each other in time, or not?


I've actually never given fragmentation any thought. I mean what use is having the range of the Northern Hemisphere but you only live in 5% of that range. And while that could lead to speciation in some organisms, it won't bode well for those that have populations too small or lacking in genetic diversity to be able to carry on their species for much longer
or, a subgroup of fragmentation: I've seen it said that there are more tigers (any subspecies) in North America - zoos and private hands - than in their natural habitats and ancestral ranges. now, if humans vanish, what happens to all those populations? most of them are viable populations because zoos can exchange individuals to maintain healthy stock in preparation for returning them to the wild (which segues into another of the categories, i think)


now, granted, some fragmentation will be *ended* by the extinction of humans...like how interstate highways carve up the ranges of pronghorns (no humans -> no traffic accidents with pronghorns)
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Flisch
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CaledonianWarrior96
Nov 3 2016, 12:31 PM
I don't know if this topic deserves it's own thread or not, but I did think of something that I thought could do more than if I placed in QTDNTOT. So basically in evo continuum projects we see some of the same animals and plants dying out given that it seems unlikely they could survive the Holocene Extinction Event going on now. Creatures of note including bears, bovines, elephants, some whales, most amphibians and so on.

What I'm getting at is how likely is it that some of them will actually die out in the HEE? Like look at wolves for example; in some projects (mine included) they are seen to have died out in the HEE, but would there be any actual reason for them to die out? Sure they are hunted but they have a wide range, live in different habitats, prey on different animals and currently aren't registered as vulnerable or below that category. Wolves are just one example but how likely is it that other commonly doomed species actually are doomed to extinction?
It really deopends on one factor:

How long humans will live exclusively on earth.

Unless we make space colonization viable in the near future (not just possible, viable), our population will explode. Humanity grows at an exponential rate. Of all humans who have ever lived, about 8% are alive today, that's an awful lot. (And that right there is a severe understatement.) And we are not going to slow down anytime soon. Give it a bunch of generations, and unless magical space faeries aka aliens come down to give us FTL ships and highly advanced technology, we will get some massive resource and space problems.

Yes people today are very concerned about pandas, but if people have to decide wether they want to have enough fresh water and bread to live for one more day, or to save the panda, you know what'll happen to all those cute endangered animals.

Plus, even if we were to be able to colonize other planets, why would we abandon earth and leave it to itself? When people left Europe to settle on America, Europe didn't become some desolate ghost town and surely did not stagnate. Even if we start colonizing other worlds, people will still live on earth, they will still continue to build, they will still have a growing population. The extinction rate will continue, just slightly slower.

Also, extinction is a fuzzy term in our modern world. Is an animal species that does not exist in the wild still "extant"? And if it is, how is that any different from being only "extant" through genetic samples sitting in frozen gene vaults?
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CaledonianWarrior96
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Overall, what bird groups would be more likely to die out in our current extinction event? I imagine birds like parrots, birds-of-paradise, some birds of prey and some penguin species would be hit hard and die out
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- Official Project
- Foundation
The Beryoni Galaxy: The Biologically Rich and Politically Complex State of our Galaxy (Habitational Zone)

- Beryoni Critique Thread (formerly: Aliens of Beryoni)
The Ecology of Skull Island: An Open Project for the Home of King Kong (Alternative Universe)
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Dr Nitwhite
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CaledonianWarrior96
Nov 20 2016, 12:04 PM
Overall, what bird groups would be more likely to die out in our current extinction event? I imagine birds like parrots, birds-of-paradise, some birds of prey and some penguin species would be hit hard and die out
Several small passerine groups (includes the birds-of-paradise, and I mean small by species or population numbers wise), lots of coastal birds, and ratites are all standing for a beating.

Parrots should be fine, honestly. Many species manage fine in fragmented and second-growth habitats and are of least concern. Select birds-of-prey that aren't doing well now probably wouldn't go far, but then again, so will any other subset that isn't doing well.
Edited by Dr Nitwhite, Nov 20 2016, 02:01 PM.
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HangingThief
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Amphibians likely won't be hit quite as hard as imagined. Yes, they're sensitive to environmental changes, but they're also small and abundant. As long as a little bit of suitable habitat remains in any given region, the more common and widespread amphibians should be fine.

Freshwater fish are probably the most vulnerable vertebrate group.

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Flisch
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A thing to consider: Our current extinction event is less discriminative than past extinction events. Historical EEs saw several groups surviving relatively unscathed while others went extinct or were hit so hard they never recovered. Human induced extinction doesn't care. Everything is hit equally hard, more or less. There are of course individual species that do better than others, but it usually doesn't extend to an entire clade.
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Zorcuspine
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Flisch
Nov 21 2016, 09:04 AM
A thing to consider: Our current extinction event is less discriminative than past extinction events. Historical EEs saw several groups surviving relatively unscathed while others went extinct or were hit so hard they never recovered. Human induced extinction doesn't care. Everything is hit equally hard, more or less. There are of course individual species that do better than others, but it usually doesn't extend to an entire clade.
I'd argue that this is demonstrably untrue. Megafauna has been hit harder than smaller lifeforms, island ecosystems have been hit harder then the continents, areas with a long history of hominid habitation (ie, Africa and Asia) are less affected than areas that have been colonized more recently, and terrestrial and freshwater lifeforms have historically been hit harder than marine ones. Global warming is and will disproportionately affect polar and high altitude ecosystems, as well as coral reefs. This extinction is just as selective as the others, it's just selective in a different way.
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CaledonianWarrior96
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How likely are flamingoes to go extinct in the HEE? I always figured because they require a specific environment for their food source that that would make them vulnerable to climate change and habitat destruction by humans, but I've been reading up that the American Flamingo is actually increasing in terms of population and wondered if this means they can survive past the HEE?
Come check out and subscribe to my projects on the following subforums;

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The Meuse Legacy: An Alternative Outcome of the Mosasaur (Alternative Evolution)
Terra Cascus: The Last Refuge of the Dinosaurs (Alternative Evolution)
- Official Project
- Foundation
The Beryoni Galaxy: The Biologically Rich and Politically Complex State of our Galaxy (Habitational Zone)

- Beryoni Critique Thread (formerly: Aliens of Beryoni)
The Ecology of Skull Island: An Open Project for the Home of King Kong (Alternative Universe)
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Dr Nitwhite
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CaledonianWarrior96
Dec 11 2016, 09:09 AM
How likely are flamingoes to go extinct in the HEE? I always figured because they require a specific environment for their food source that that would make them vulnerable to climate change and habitat destruction by humans, but I've been reading up that the American Flamingo is actually increasing in terms of population and wondered if this means they can survive past the HEE?
Flamingos are fairly widespread-

Posted Image

But rely on a very specific food source- algae and crustaceans from shallow saline bodies of water. On the coast, these habitats, such as mudflats and lagoons, are of serious concern. Many flamingos are under threat, due to habitat destruction for various reasons. However, alkaline and salt lakes I think are doing a bit better, and they may reasonably hold on in these locations. All in all, I think this one could swing either way and is up to the speccer. I don't think anyone would accuse existing flamingo descendants of implausibility, nor would they quarrel much with them going extinct.
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Final SE Lifelist standings

BREAKING NEWS
We interrupt your regular programming to bring you this cutting edge report.
ATTENDANCE DROPS DRASTICALLY ON SE SERVER
This past Monday on Discord, famous server Speculative Evolution took a hit in the attendance office when it's offline member list suddenly reappeared. Mods scrambled to rectify the situation, but unfortunately there was little anyone could do. Server member Ivan was asked what he thought of the situation. "So long as Flisch, lord of machines and scion of Urborg lives, all will be well". SE, (in)famous for it's eccentric userbase, has recently been spiraling downward, and now we have hard conformation of the decline. Moderator "High Lord" Icthyander states "There is nothing to be concerned about, Discord is merely changing its UI again", but members are beginning to suspect the honesty of their staff.
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Beetleboy
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Dr Nitwhite
Dec 11 2016, 09:50 AM
CaledonianWarrior96
Dec 11 2016, 09:09 AM
How likely are flamingoes to go extinct in the HEE? I always figured because they require a specific environment for their food source that that would make them vulnerable to climate change and habitat destruction by humans, but I've been reading up that the American Flamingo is actually increasing in terms of population and wondered if this means they can survive past the HEE?
Flamingos are fairly widespread-

Posted Image

But rely on a very specific food source- algae and crustaceans from shallow saline bodies of water. On the coast, these habitats, such as mudflats and lagoons, are of serious concern. Many flamingos are under threat, due to habitat destruction for various reasons. However, alkaline and salt lakes I think are doing a bit better, and they may reasonably hold on in these locations. All in all, I think this one could swing either way and is up to the speccer. I don't think anyone would accuse existing flamingo descendants of implausibility, nor would they quarrel much with them going extinct.
I agree. Some flamingo spec would be nice to see, but since they're already pretty specialized, I can't really see them adapting to any new conditions. The only real possibility that I could see would be some kind of penguin-like marine filterfeeder, maybe.
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Dr Nitwhite
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Beetleboy
Dec 11 2016, 01:16 PM
I agree. Some flamingo spec would be nice to see, but since they're already pretty specialized, I can't really see them adapting to any new conditions. The only real possibility that I could see would be some kind of penguin-like marine filterfeeder, maybe.
Ah, ye of little spec! Flamingos could easily adapt to further habitats where filter-feeding forms might exist, such as ponds and lakes plagued with algae. If there was a minor extinction of other forms, their beaks might straighten out, leading to countless other forms down the line. Granted, it is a bit of a just-so-story, but you could work with them further.
Speculative Evolution Projects-

Other Relevant Work-

Final SE Lifelist standings

BREAKING NEWS
We interrupt your regular programming to bring you this cutting edge report.
ATTENDANCE DROPS DRASTICALLY ON SE SERVER
This past Monday on Discord, famous server Speculative Evolution took a hit in the attendance office when it's offline member list suddenly reappeared. Mods scrambled to rectify the situation, but unfortunately there was little anyone could do. Server member Ivan was asked what he thought of the situation. "So long as Flisch, lord of machines and scion of Urborg lives, all will be well". SE, (in)famous for it's eccentric userbase, has recently been spiraling downward, and now we have hard conformation of the decline. Moderator "High Lord" Icthyander states "There is nothing to be concerned about, Discord is merely changing its UI again", but members are beginning to suspect the honesty of their staff.
Stay tuned, we'll be back with more at 11.
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Rodlox
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Dr Nitwhite
Dec 11 2016, 03:32 PM
Beetleboy
Dec 11 2016, 01:16 PM
I agree. Some flamingo spec would be nice to see, but since they're already pretty specialized, I can't really see them adapting to any new conditions. The only real possibility that I could see would be some kind of penguin-like marine filterfeeder, maybe.
Ah, ye of little spec! Flamingos could easily adapt to further habitats where filter-feeding forms might exist, such as ponds and lakes plagued with algae. If there was a minor extinction of other forms, their beaks might straighten out, leading to countless other forms down the line. Granted, it is a bit of a just-so-story, but you could work with them further.
it would be fun and interesting to see how the constraints of the flamingo bauplan (massively fleshy tongues, etc) would play with the new niches they try to enter.
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"Marsupialless Australia" (what-if) & "Out on a Branch" (future evolution) & "The Earth under a still sun" (WIP)
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