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| Topic Started: Mar 2 2015, 03:36 PM (3,105 Views) | |
| Ànraich | Nov 20 2015, 07:58 PM Post #76 |
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L'évolution Spéculative est moi
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China will likely secretly lend support in the form of cyber attacks against the Daesh. Their government denies their capability to launch cyber attacks lets face it, nobody buys that for a second. With the level of control they have over the internet in their nation there's no way all these coordinated attacks on other nations are the result of hackers unaffiliated with the government. China is by far the world's premier superpower in cyberspace at this point, and I'm sure they're itching to flex their digital muscles and the Daesh would be the perfect target considering how much they rely on the internet for their organization to function properly and effectively. |
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We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar. "The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming Tree That Owns Itself
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| whachamacallit2 | Nov 20 2015, 09:19 PM Post #77 |
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Guy who yells at squirrels
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Yeah, I should've probably made more clear that the Chinese who want to go at Daesh Russia style are just guys on the Internet. China's far more interested in East Africa at the moment, and even then they're being far more sneaky in their exploits. The only place where China is being a bit more classically aggressive is the South China Sea. |
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| seascorpion | Nov 21 2015, 03:12 AM Post #78 |
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?
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It is worth noting that the crackdowns and anti-Muslim laws are largely restricted to Xinjiang. There are other predominantly Muslim minority groups and provinces in China that don't have similar laws in effect.There are no restrictions on Ramadan for state employees who are Hui, or laws against veils for Hui women for example. And Huis aren't some small obscure ethnic group with no presence in China, there are about as many of them as there are Uyghurs. It is not simply a matter of Islamophobia as it is Anti-Uyghur legislation. China finds nationalism and separatism more threatening than it does Islam. Of course, that doesn't make it any less immoral. Persecution is persecution, and Uyghur people have as much right as any other people to be able to adhere to their beliefs and not have their culture stamped out
Like Lamna said, that's pretty unlikely. Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and the like are some of the most unstable areas in the world, in many parts of those nations any kind of wider governing presence or capability is extremely limited or nonexistent. China is very far from a failed state, and it's military is more than able to operate with overwhelming force within the borders of the Chinese state. Edited by seascorpion, Nov 21 2015, 03:13 AM.
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| seascorpion | Nov 24 2015, 08:22 AM Post #79 |
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?
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So a Russian jet was shot down by Turkey. It's looking like a great shit-storm is going down. I doubt any new war will arise, but an escalation in Syria is fairly certain. |
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| lamna | Nov 24 2015, 01:19 PM Post #80 |
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I'm glad, in an unpleasant way, that China's not generally becoming a less tolerant place for Muslims and this is targeted. Russia's not going to go to war over this, but yeah, it's not going to help anything. |
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| whachamacallit2 | Oct 21 2016, 05:38 PM Post #81 |
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So I'm bringing this back from the dead! While I could go on and on about the big ass geopolitical things that have happened since lamna's last post, I want to point out to everyone that the Pentagon recently released a report on future threats by 2035: http://dtic.mil/doctrine/concepts/joe/joe_2035_july16.pdf Over all, I think it's interesting, but it also seems like most of the contexts are already happening; Many nations are already pushing against international norm and I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to form their own international norms behind closed doors. Some other info is more distressing, such as the reproliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. And I think they're understating the impact of the refugee crisis. I imagine it'll get much worse over the coming decades as climate change bites down more and more. EDIT: Also, a reevalutation on the potential of Kurdistan-I recently read an article from the Economist that raised a good argument that the Kurdish people might've missed their chance at a good secession. Since the Kurds began fighting-back when ISIS first invaded Iraq- the Kurds were unified, fairly well-off, and strong enough that they might've been able to have a clean separation. But since then, Turkey and Iran have been funding opponents, and now the Kurdish people are becoming increasingly divided. Both Iran and Turkey have vested interest in keeping the idea of Kurdistan dead, so they've been sabotaging it on both sides. Now, if Kurdistan forms, it's possible that it'll ultimately fail. Edited by whachamacallit2, Oct 21 2016, 05:50 PM.
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| Niedfaru | Oct 22 2016, 09:20 AM Post #82 |
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I'd be interested in hearing what you guys are making of the whole Philippines flip-flopping mess. It seems Duerte can't make up his mind, even after making unequivocal statements. What the hell is actually going on, and what would the effects be one way or the other. Only a few months ago I was reading about how the Philippines where desperate for any allies against the Chinese, turning to the US and Japan for support, but now...? What even? |
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| whachamacallit2 | Oct 22 2016, 09:51 AM Post #83 |
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For now, I think he's just blustering and playing nice with China, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the Philippines won't realign over time, and this may be a rough and unsteady start to that realignment. I think he's trying to get a bit more Chinese economic funding, especially as his witch hunts are getting more western ire, but I highly doubt he'll actually kick out American military outposts. Something tells me that would have some bad consequences for the Phillippines-not that the US would invade them of course. That's just stupid. |
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| LittleLazyLass | Oct 22 2016, 10:52 AM Post #84 |
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As someone who doesn't really know all that much on the subject: How much longer is it likely for the current North Korean regime to stay in power? |
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| lamna | Oct 22 2016, 01:44 PM Post #85 |
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From what I've read, it's secure in the short to medium term, but long term survival is probably unlikely. Without reform things are just going to get worse and worse, and eventually people will get pissed enough to do something about it. With reform things will improve...very slowly. The people will see how much better things are in the south and how slow reform is and want to speed it up. |
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| lamna | Nov 6 2016, 08:16 AM Post #86 |
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Well it looks like the...what do we call it? Syrian Civil War doesn't cover the scope. Mashriqi War? Looks like we're entering the beginning of the end. Iraq has recaptured Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit and now they are making better than expected progress in Mosul. Once that's gone, it's mostly mopping up. With good fortune ISIS ought lose all territory by next spring. The SDF in Syria are launching an attack on Raqqa, though that's probably just to pin ISIS and prevent them from giving everything in the defense of Mosul. And then there is he action around Aleppo, it looks likely that the government will be able to take the city. I do wonder if Putin is wondering whether to send ground forces. Assad's short on manpower but has every other advantage. If he he just had a few more troops. But Putin also doesn't want another Afghanistan. This is about preserving an ally and looking strong, boys coming back in coffin's isn't gonna help him. |
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| seascorpion | Nov 9 2016, 06:42 AM Post #87 |
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If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Syria going to Assad. Especially if Trump sticks to his rhetoric of working with Putin and Assad. The rebels, quite simply, are not a unified or competent force - not that Assad's regime is - but the rebels certainly don't make anything easier for themselves by fighting amongst themselves in Aleppo and not cooperating fully. If America backs down their support for several rebel factions, it's likely that we might see Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah operate in Syria with greater freedom. What happens with the SDF, the Kurds and Turkey and the GCC is the real question. Now, importantly, is a good time to look at Trump's foreign policy and what is somewhat likely. Trump has consistently voiced a bizarre admiration for Russia and a stated aim to work with Russia. Overall, we might expect to see US-Russia tensions deescalate if he follows through on this. On top of this, Trump has voiced worrying disregard for NATO and has frequently taken the view that NATO members that don't meet a 2% GDP rate of military expenditure should be outside of the treaty obligations and benefits. Most European members of NATO do not meet 2% GDP, and at least in some NATO members - an increase in military expenditure at Trump's behest is likely to not be a particularly popular move. It is likely we might see increased political tension within NATO and open American disregard for the alliance. All up, 2017 is looking like another very politically challenging year for Europe. Even if Russian-American tensions over Syria may deescalate, Putin's ambitions will continue and he may in fact be emboldened by the presence of a relatively Russia-friendly face in the whitehouse. Europe might find itself having to contend with internal issues like Brexit, various elections and referendums, as well as Russian boldness and American discontent. Edited by seascorpion, Nov 9 2016, 06:43 AM.
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| whachamacallit2 | Nov 12 2016, 12:18 AM Post #88 |
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To add to what you said, one big concern I have is that Trump, despite all his recent U-turns, is still consistently aggressive towards China. Obviously a trade war is nearly inevitable, and it feels that there may be some extreme shifts in alliances that may come from this. I know Russia and China are somewhat allies of convenience, but I doubt that convenience will end with Trump blushing at Putin's compliments. It would be quite surprising if Europe and China ended up getting a bit closer due to American indifference and aggression, respectively. I also wonder if he'll go ahead with disbanding the Iran Nuclear Deal. I know there's a lot of support for that in the Republican establishment, but it's a bit too late for that; we've fulfilled all our obligations already and Iran was still working on completing its part. If we scrap the deal, then Iran got all the benefits and can go back to nuke production. It's sort of like if I gave a car to someone, expecting to be paid back later, but then I tear up the deal after the guy got the car. The guy gets a free car! |
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| seascorpion | Nov 13 2016, 08:55 PM Post #89 |
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?
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A trade war would be disastrous, and much more than merely damaging America's stance in Europe - America could very seriously lose some of its allies in the Asia-Pacific if it follows through on that. The entire region is economically interconnected. If Trump goes into a trade war with China he would cause immense damage to the economies of the region - friend or foe. Hell, there's serious talk in Australia over whether or not Trump could mean the end of the Australian-American alliance. Here for example
Of course, the first thing to understand about Australian foriegn policy is this - trade. Australia, despite it's relative geographic isolation and distant centres of population depends upon exports for it's economic prosperity. Australia's primary interest is in the maintenance of free trade and economic security/stability in the Asia-Pacific. It's largely why Australia has always attached itself as a loyal partner to naval powers. Trump's reckless trade war, protectionism and isolationism would directly go against our interests. Which explains why many in Canberra are concerned by his rise. I can only imagine the climate in South Korea and Japan is also one of dread regarding whether or not Trump's policies come to fruition. |
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| Ànraich | Nov 13 2016, 09:17 PM Post #90 |
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L'évolution Spéculative est moi
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The real question here is... What do we need allies in Europe and the Pacific for? Our "allies" rely heavily on us for their defense against basically any real threat to them. Our alliance with Europe after WW2 was one of convenience: Europe couldn't hope to stand against a Soviet invasion, and we couldn't mount a real offensive against them without European cooperation. The Soviet Union is gone, so... Why are we giving Europe so much? The trade more or less goes one way, we don't actually get much from Europe. Europe is on the decline and Russia is rising, and we have a mutual rival in China with Russia, so it seems perfectly reasonable to me to pursue relations with Russia at the expense of those in Europe. This is all, of course, from a geopolitical perspective and not a personal one. |
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We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar. "The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming Tree That Owns Itself
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