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Geopolitics
Topic Started: Mar 2 2015, 03:36 PM (3,106 Views)
seascorpion
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

lamna
Nov 17 2015, 01:45 PM
I knew the news was fairly good from Iraqi, but I didn't know about Syria. Are the SDF and YPG going for Al-Raqqah or trying to link up with the Western Kurds and rebels?
They've stated that they're heading for Raqqah, it'd be an enormous propaganda victory for the SDF/YPG and give the SDF much needed legitimacy as a pro-Western secular democratic force in Syria.

What Putin, Iran and Assad will think is a whole other kettle of fish.

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I wonder if Kurdistan will form as a result of this mess.


If there is any positive result from the conflict it would be this. The Kurds have been on of the few forces in this wider conflict not regularly engaged in human right's abuses. They've proven themselves to often be less corrupt and more competent than the legitimate state actors in the region.

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If anything it's just beginning.


I'd say this is a pretty accurate summary of the situation.

Even if ISIS goes, whatever fills the vacuum is an unknown quantity. The Middle East has been a pressure cooker for so long that a spread of conflict is looking almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Turkey, Iran - they all have their fingers in the pie.
Edited by seascorpion, Nov 17 2015, 10:03 PM.
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I wonder what it would take to reduce pressure in the Middle East.
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Zorcuspine
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Hamineigh
Nov 17 2015, 11:34 PM
I wonder what it would take to reduce pressure in the Middle East.
Tensions between Israel and Palestine would have to die down first. When you get down to it, that conflict is a huge factor in pretty much everything wrong in the region.
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The Israel-Palestine thing isn't gonna die down any time soon. Ergo, the Middle East isn't going to fix itself any time soon.
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Zorcuspine
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Dragon
Nov 18 2015, 12:33 AM
The Israel-Palestine thing isn't gonna die down any time soon. Ergo, the Middle East isn't going to fix itself any time soon.
That's pretty much the gist of it, yes.
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seascorpion
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

Zorcuspine
Nov 18 2015, 12:10 AM
Hamineigh
Nov 17 2015, 11:34 PM
I wonder what it would take to reduce pressure in the Middle East.
Tensions between Israel and Palestine would have to die down first. When you get down to it, that conflict is a huge factor in pretty much everything wrong in the region.
Israel-Palestine is, oddly enough, a bit overstated. Don't get me wrong, it's a big cause of tension and instability in the Levant, but it is also one of the few flashpoints or long term problems in the wider Middle Eastern region that has received consistent attention in Western media. It isn't as important to the wider Middle East as you'd think.

Now, the proxy wars between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? That's a much more real cause for war, that is presently one of the many things tearing apart nations like Syria and Yemen. People in Syria, Iraq and Yemen aren't killing each other over Israel or Palestine, or being supplied by either.

It's ultimately Iranian troops on the ground in Syria and Iraq, as well as Saudi/Gulf troops in Yemen, and the proxy rebels that are supplied by both sides throughout the region that are risking the region falling into wider conflict.

Israel will mess with Gaza for the time being, but their fingers aren't in the pie half as much as many other nations. I'd say Turkey is currently doing more to destabilise the region, given they're supporting Islamist groups like Ahrar al Sham in Syria and launching airstrikes against the Kurds in Iraq and Syria.

Add in radical Islamist groups like ISIS and Al-Nusra in there, alongside the Americans and the Russians, as well as the war in Libya and the instability in Egypt, a new Kurdish war in Turkey and the whole region is looking like it's too far gone for peace to happen before the war gets much worse.

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lamna
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Israel-Palestine mostly effects Israel, Palestine and Lebanon. Aside from Lebanon, the last spillover was Operation Opera in 1981, if I remember rightly.

The Saudi/Iranian Cold War is, as scorp said the main thing fanning the flames in the wider middle east.

Israel-Palestine probably gets more attention because the West is still fairly pro-Israel, and Palestinian cause is a simple narrative to latch on to, people colonizing your land and denying your nation sovereignty.

Much easier than the complex relations between government and religion in Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran's issues demobilizing, Saudi dealing with the wider modern world.

Plus, for the West the Saudi/Iran Cold War doesn't really have "good guy" for you to latch onto. You've got a heavily militarized theocracy butting heads with absolute monarchy who's dynasty was establish and is maintained through a form of Islam the West is deeply uncomfortable with.

With Israel and Palestine, it's much easier to prefer one or the other, the plucky underdogs or the nation that's very similar to our own.
Edited by lamna, Nov 18 2015, 02:37 PM.
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So IS has executed a Chinese captive . It evidently has caused the Chinese to start getting thoughts of intervening in Syria Russia style, but others are obviously cautious about getting into that geopolitical shitstorm. Of course none of it matters till the government voices their opinion, but in so far they've just condemned the killing.
Edited by whachamacallit2, Nov 19 2015, 09:06 PM.
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seascorpion
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

China has less of a capacity to operate in Syria than Russia, and less motivation. The most the Chinese will do is up their material support for Russia and Assad. It's worth noting that China has already provided some minor material support to them in Syria, mostly non-military stuff.

We might see China step it up, but overall, the Middle East is less important to China than it is to other great powers. China is much more focused on the South China Sea and Central Asia, but they do have legitimate reason to want to curtail Islamism as much as possible. Xianjiang is a major cause for concern.

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lamna
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whachamacallit2
Nov 19 2015, 08:49 PM
So IS has executed a Chinese captive . It evidently has caused the Chinese to start getting thoughts of intervening in Syria Russia style, but others are obviously cautious about getting into that geopolitical shitstorm. Of course none of it matters till the government voices their opinion, but in so far they've just condemned the killing.
I doubt they will, it's not really China's style. They are positioning themselves as the peaceful superpower, they don't go on imperialist adventures.
seascorpion
Nov 19 2015, 09:52 PM
China has less of a capacity to operate in Syria than Russia, and less motivation. The most the Chinese will do is up their material support for Russia and Assad. It's worth noting that China has already provided some minor material support to them in Syria, mostly non-military stuff.

We might see China step it up, but overall, the Middle East is less important to China than it is to other great powers. China is much more focused on the South China Sea and Central Asia, but they do have legitimate reason to want to curtail Islamism as much as possible. Xianjiang is a major cause for concern.

Xinjiang is a cause for concern because China seems to have forgotten how to deal with Muslims, i.e. leave them alone like everyone else.

They are trying to restrict fasting and the wearing of head scarves and veils, and they are cracking down in Xinjiang. Because, you know, repressing people is how you stop them from feeling oppressed and turning to extremist groups.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-28263496
Edited by lamna, Nov 20 2015, 01:55 PM.
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If the shit hits the fan in Xinjiang and there's armed rebellion, we might get some of those groups pledging allegiance to ISIS, much like what's happened in Afghanistan and Libya.
"For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life," John 3:16

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trex841
 
Hey, their right to get freaky ends when it goes up my nose.


I think this describes what dinosaurs are like now

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lamna
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I think that's unlikely, China's got a pretty firm grip on the Province and the people. Any attempt to revolt would be crushed before it got started.
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edit: Yeah, had a feeling you'd like this post, trex.
Edited by LittleLazyLass, Nov 20 2015, 08:07 PM.
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