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Geopolitics
Topic Started: Mar 2 2015, 03:36 PM (3,108 Views)
Ànraich
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Burrowing under a mountain range, while not an easy task, is not much of a problem in the modern era. I still think it would be easier to make a canal across Nicaragua though, considering it's a smaller country and also has a great lake of its own. Or maybe it's a lagoon? I'm not sure.
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The word you're looking for is 'Lakoon'.

The issue I was worried about is going over the mountains, but either way you look at it, it'd be a needless destruction of the local environments.
Edited by Kamidio, Mar 4 2015, 01:01 AM.
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Mar 3 2015, 10:52 PM
There's always talk of China but I'm not sure China will continue to grow economically so long as they continue their communist ways.
I would argue that they're most likely to suffer an economic downturn at some point in the future. They are still growing at quite a fast rate, but their suppression of the Yuan is lowering their populace's standard of living to make exports a potential practice and thereby increasing the rate of growth of their economy to higher than usual levels. They're also doing a collosal amount of construction (They used as much cement that the US used in the 20th century in just 3.5 years!!) in which I'm not certain where all the money to fund this endeavor is coming from. Since China's economy is increasing so crazily, a recession is practically guaranteed (I also think I heard that they got their own "housing bubble" forming...)

But does this recession mean that China will be reduced to nothing? I don't think so. The Chinese government is pretty well established, and they'll probably be able to weather through the storm just fine. But I bet that there'll be quite a few changes to their policy that'll make China's economic growth far more sustainable and less prone to overextending itself.
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seascorpion
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China will have a recession, that much is inevitable, whats important is whether or not they'll be able to bounce back effectively.

China is often compared to pre-WW1 Germany or in other circumstances, to Japan's rapid economic growth before the lost decade. I don't think either comparison is truly apt if we're being honest. China is a very different beast to either of them.
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True, that. Even in the worst case scenario for China (they go into total economic free fall, and end up shedding their autonomous territories), they would still be one of the largest economies on the planet. Maybe not the second-largest anymore, but definitely in the top half-dozen.
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lamna
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Old post but seriously, only Tibet has a chance of independence. The Navajo are more likely to become independent than the other autonomous region.

What I really wanted to talk about is the continuation of what I said in the first post. The Islamic State have just captured Ramadi, a city home to half a million people, most of them Sunni. The Iraqi army melted away despite being order by the prime minister not to abandon the city, so now Shia militia are going to have to go in to take it back. I won't be surprised if we see some war crimes from these militia against the people of Ramadi.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32774445

Also I can't think of anywhere else to put this, but I wonder if there are some "noble lies" in the world, that have arisen naturally as we become "more civilized". The ones I'm talking about are:

1. Torture never works.
2. Brutal/totalitarian regimes ensure their own downfall.

I'm not advocating either, hence the noble part of noble lies. But I can't help but doubt both, especially 2. Most regimes have been brutal throughout history, and there are plenty that are today, and they don't seem to fall that often. Surely if that was true, the DPRK wouldn't have lasted so long.

I also hear a lot of in a lot opposition to torture that it is ineffective and unreliable, but can something used for so long be that wrong? Also, it seems like a terrible argument against it, surely it should be opposed for moral reasons, not because the results are poor?
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Torture is actually pretty worthless as a tool of information extraction. Cause somebody enough pain and they'll be willing to tell you whatever you want to hear to make it stop, regardless of whether it's true or not. Plus if they know they're going to die either way it's worth it to just give out misinformation. Most of the time torture occurs when you want to confirm something you already know anyways. What torture does do is make for a good tool of forcing compliance or conformity.

Brutal regimes do generally ensure their own downfall as well. They work well for as long as the people either believe the propaganda or put up with the abuse at the hands of the state. Eventually they reach the point where the wool is pulled from their eyes and they have nothing left to lose, and all the military hardware and secret police in the world won't help you when your entire population decides it's time for you to have a chat with Madame Guillotine.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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seascorpion
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Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

I think that noble lies are just that, lies. Ones that have morality and human rights as their motivations albeit.

Saying torture never works is a blanket statement. Is it really possible, that in the entirety of human civilisation and conflict, that violently extorting information from someone has never worked? I think it's fair to say that there could be better techniques and some more nuanced methods of getting information, and that a lot of torture is just sadistic violence, but I would doubt that it never gets accurate information out of people.

Number 2 is simply obvious. There have been an extraordinary amount of dictators, absolute monarchs, warlords, emperors and juntas throughout human history that simply prove this wrong.

Totalitarian regimes don't ensure their own downfall. Brutal regimes, when they fall, often fall to the same problems that other societies fall to. Democracies, dictatorships and monarchies alike have all had problems with civil wars, ethnic tensions, economic collapse and systemic corruption. It is a fallacy to say that totalitarian regimes alone are more susceptible to these problems when there are so many examples to the contrary.

Torture and totalitarianism aren't bad because they're ineffective. In fact, they often aren't. A lot of horrible regimes have had periods of internal stability and economic success. A lot of organisations that use torture have proven themselves to be excellent at gathering accurate information.

Totalitarianism and torture are bad because they're immoral. Torture is sadistic and inhumane, and many totalitarian governments have treated their own constituents with such a level of soullessness and cruelty that I cannot fathom how there are still people today, in the western world, who view them in a positive light.
Edited by seascorpion, May 18 2015, 12:33 AM.
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lamna
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That's for demonstrating the opinions I think are incorrect and agreeing with me, respectively.

Torture, I don't know enough to back it up, it's a depressing subject to research and being right doesn't benefit me in anyway. True or false if the idea that torture is ineffective is widespread it will help stop it.

The regime thing though, the French monarchy existed for about a thousand years, and the revolution lead to another absolute leader emerging, and then foreign powers put another monarch on the throne.

Or you can look at China, maybe the Qing brought about their own downfall, but it didn't lead to the people getting a government they could get involved with. Yuan Shikai, Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong, were not democratic rulers and many of them did very questionable things. Even Deng Xiaoping and the modern Chinese government aren't democratic.

How long are these regimes supposed to exist before someone overthrows them? Because many either last for centuries, or are just replaced by a new one that's often not better.
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surely it should be opposed for moral reasons, not because the results are poor


People who use that argument are trying to appeal to people who do not care about ethics and morality or who have a worldview that means the wrongness of torture is outweighed by all the perceived benefits of torture (or a combination of the two). So telling them it is immoral will not work. Telling them it is a waste of resources is intended to appeal to their practical side. I don't really agree with the 'don't do it because it doesn't work' but can see why one might want to use that argument against it. No idea how effective it is in changing anybody's mind though. Sorta like capital punishment in that respect. If nothing else, at least the transgressor is being punished!
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This might not be huge news, but it's very bizarre news. Former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili has been made governor of Odessa by President Poroshenko. Having the former head of state become a regional leader in another country is pretty strange, but what's even stranger is that Saakashvili is a wanted man in Georgia, I'm sure the current government won't be happy about this, which is weird considering that Georgia is also a nation that want to be more pro-western, and has Russian -backed breakaway regions.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32943701

That reminded me of this article. I've always assumed that Georgia was a safe bet for Europe, but they might want to swing back to Russia at some point. As long as their independence is secure, aligning themselves with Russia makes a lot more sense. Russian buy Georgian products, Europeans don't, Georgians work in Russia, Russians go on holiday in Georgia.

If Moscow could sweeten the deal and get the break-away republics to return (with huge autonomy I'm sure) then Georgia might really turn its back on the West.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32795249
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The Russians can have Georgia, but they ain't taking Alabama.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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lamna
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Well, half a year later and Ramadi is still in ISIS hands, but there is to be a new push to take it back with a mix of government and militia forces and htey seem to be making progress.

Interesting and possibly big news, the President of the Republic of China, Ma Ying-jeou and Xi Jinping have met in Singapore, the first time leaders of Republic has met with the leader of the rebels since Chiang Kai-Shek and Mao Zedong met in failed peace talks 70 years ago. Perhaps a sign the mainland is finally ready to surrender?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-34742680
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More seriously, Taiwan and China seem to have been getting closer and closer lately, I don't think reunification is that far away. I seriously doubt it's going to happen in the next decade, but its something we should expect before 2050. I assume reunification would be along the lines of Macau and Hong Kong, with extremely broad autonomy for Taiwan.
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The best outcome would be for Taiwan to rejoin China and in the process renegotiate Hong Kong and Macau's future, giving them more control over their governance and removing deadline for full integration with China, with the three states being permanent autonomous regions, like Russia's republics.

If that doesn't happen, China's going to have some serious trouble on their hands. There are lots of people in Hong Kong fed up with Beijing and lots of people in Taiwan nervous about these closer ties.
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lamna
Nov 9 2015, 06:13 PM
The best outcome would be for Taiwan to rejoin China and in the process renegotiate Hong Kong and Macau's future, giving them more control over their governance and removing deadline for full integration with China, with the three states being permanent autonomous regions, like Russia's republics.

If that doesn't happen, China's going to have some serious trouble on their hands. There are lots of people in Hong Kong fed up with Beijing and lots of people in Taiwan nervous about these closer ties.
To be fair, there's nothing that implies reunification thus far. As CGP Grey put it, "Only China knows, and China will not say."

So we're basically clueless as to the future of Macau and Hong Kong.
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Kamidio
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Perhaps we could discuss this in the actual Geopolitics thread? This thread is getting quite depressing, and posting something cute or funny just feels kind of... insensitive, seeing as this discussion was sparked by the death of over 140 people.


Agreed.

So the South Korean government has started to abolish democracy. Fucking wonderful.
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