Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Speculative biology is simultaneously a science and form of art in which one speculates on the possibilities of life and evolution. What could the world look like if dinosaurs had never gone extinct? What could alien lifeforms look like? What kinds of plants and animals might exist in the far future? These questions and more are tackled by speculative biologists, and the Speculative Evolution welcomes all relevant ideas, inquiries, and world-building projects alike. With a member base comprising users from across the world, our community is the largest and longest-running place of gathering for speculative biologists on the web.

While unregistered users are able to browse the forum on a basic level, registering an account provides additional forum access not visible to guests as well as the ability to join in discussions and contribute yourself! Registration is free and instantaneous.

Join our community today!

Username:   Password:
Add Reply
Geopolitics
Topic Started: Mar 2 2015, 03:36 PM (3,109 Views)
seascorpion
Member Avatar
Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

Archeoraptor
Mar 2 2015, 05:39 PM
Do you think that in the future there will be more muslims than christians in europe?
No.

Firstly, trends do not continue indefinitely. Just because the Islamic population in Europe is increasing doesn't mean that the Islamic population will still be increasing in 10 or 20 years, it certainly doesn't mean that the Islamic population will supplant or expand beyond the non-Islamic population.

It is unlikely that a large enough amount of Europeans would convert to Islam for it to be the majority religion, it is implausible to think that immigration will continue at such a rate that the Islamic immigrant population will become the majority.

Edited by seascorpion, Mar 3 2015, 05:52 AM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
lamna
Member Avatar


Sheather
Mar 2 2015, 08:44 PM
lamna
Mar 2 2015, 07:35 PM
Becoming secular don't mean you disappear Sheather.
Not sure I follow.

It does mean that in this respect. It means you're no longer a Christian, no longer checking "Christianity" on that census, and no longer adding to the numbers of that religion stacked up against others. Being born from Christian parents doesn't make you a Christian forever if you decide to break off from affinity with the religion.
I thought you implied that simply because some Europeans are becoming secular then Christianity was on its way out and Islam was "taking over". I see no way that Europe is going to become a majority Muslim continent. Even if it did, the world didn't end when Europe became Catholic, or when the North West became Protestant.

Immigration will eventually slow as other countries become more developed. Either their countries of origin will have better jobs, or there will be other countries that are more valuable to go to rather than European ones. And I don't think conversion rates are going to grow massively.
Quote:
 
I don't put much stock in economic cooperation being a disincentive for war. Prior to WW1, a few notable academics said the same sort of thing about Britain and Germany, and it was commonly held that any conflict would only be short, as the economic damage would be too great from a prolonged conflict for any of the belligerents to 'reasonably' want to continue the conflict.

In practice, once a war starts, they rarely if ever end for financial means when the stakes are as high as WW1 or WW2. Nations have proven themselves to be more than willing to drive themselves into economic ruin to preserve their survival.

I don't think economic closeness makes the kind of tensions that could lead to war go away. It doesn't take away economic competition, territorial disputes, espionage or political competition nor does it seem to inhibit it.

I think that's fair, but I think that nations are much more heavily involved with each other than they were a century ago, and we've still got the collective memories of the last wars. Nobody wants that again.
Quote:
 
On another note, I view a lot of the action around the Ukrainian conflict to be asinine. I personally am of the opinion that Ukraine shouldn't be armed by the west, and am also of the opinion that the current sanctions against Russia inhibit the peace process by providing Putin with propaganda and a rallying cry, as well as taking away potential Russian economic actions which gives Russia a greater incentive to instead use hard-power in the region. The sanctions are only useful if we want to push Putin into a situation where he can only protect Russian interests with military means, that is to say - they aren't useful.

I don't think Ukraine should be in NATO, I don't think Georgia or Belarus should be in NATO. I think that much of Eastern Europe is far less valuable to America or the EU than it is to Russia, and that extending Western influence into these regions is an incredibly foolhardy exercise in brinkmanship with an authoritarian nuclear power that has nationalist leanings. America has far more pressing issues affecting it's interests in the South China Sea and the Middle East. The EU, as always, has more than enough on it's plate.

China, on the other hand, seems to be acting with a consistent and slow-burning strategy in the Asia-Pacific. Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea is a far way away it seems, but it is more than plausible to assume it could occur in the near future, the Chinese are certainly laying the foundations for control of the region.

I my bellicose opinion, NATO is half-assing the whole thing. Whenever I hear "sanctions" I can't help but shake my head. Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Gaza, sanctions really seem to work at encouraging a regime to change, don't they? The problem with Ukraine is Putin is willing to go one step further than NATO, arming the rebels and sending in troops unofficially. If NATO wants to end this they have to be crazier than Putin, sending in an officially military force to squash the rebels and disarm the Nazis.

Putin wouldn't attack a NATO expeditionary force. But my option does push the brinkmanship to the edge, and would get a lot of soldiers killed. I don't really blame them for not going all the way, but that's what they need to do. Fight for Ukraine or let Russia have it and get back to normal.
Living Fossils

Fósseis Vibos: Reserva Natural


34 MYH, 4 tonne dinosaur.
T.Neo
 
Are nipples or genitals necessary, lamna?
[flash=500,450] Video Magic! [/flash]
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
seascorpion
Member Avatar
Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

I don't think NATO would be willing to send in an official expeditionary force. For all the big talk and posturing you see about Western or American power in geopolitical circles, the West doesn't seem to have any kind of coordinated action or aims at the moment and it's unlikely that they'll go so far as to actually fight for Ukraine themselves.

I'm curious what Putin's intentions and wider strategy is though. He seems to be motivated by securing Russia's status as a regional great power and ensuring Russia's continued relevance. If anything though, I'd say that it'd be more for Putin to have an influence in Central Asia and the Middle East than Eastern Europe.





Edited by seascorpion, Mar 3 2015, 08:30 AM.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
lamna
Member Avatar


I know that, I was just saying that they have the capability to win it, and if they sent in troops then they would likely win.

In all honesty it could probably be done by just one medium NATO member, like France or Germany.
Living Fossils

Fósseis Vibos: Reserva Natural


34 MYH, 4 tonne dinosaur.
T.Neo
 
Are nipples or genitals necessary, lamna?
[flash=500,450] Video Magic! [/flash]
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
LittleLazyLass
Member Avatar
Proud quilt in a bag

Isn't the big reason for a lack of major war that whole assured mutual destruction?

I've got this image of WWIII happening when the majority of humans are space-bound, and unleashing nuclear bombs upon earth without hesitation was less of a concern. Far enough in the future it deals with the economic issue as well.

p.s. Lamna would you mind spoilering the big images in the first post?
Edited by LittleLazyLass, Mar 3 2015, 08:52 AM.
totally not British, b-baka!
Posted Image You like me (Unlike)
I don't even really like this song that much but the title is pretty relatable sometimes, I guess.
Me
What, you want me to tell you what these mean?
Read First
Words Maybe
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
lamna
Member Avatar


No I have a big screen and you should too.

I frankly doubt the majority of humanity will live in space ever. Even in a millennium, I doubt it. I mean it's been well over 500 years since the New World was discovered and the majority of people still live in the Old, and the Americas and Australia are a heck of a lot more inviting than space.
Living Fossils

Fósseis Vibos: Reserva Natural


34 MYH, 4 tonne dinosaur.
T.Neo
 
Are nipples or genitals necessary, lamna?
[flash=500,450] Video Magic! [/flash]
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Scrublord
Member Avatar
Father Pellegrini
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Parasky
Mar 3 2015, 12:10 AM


This is why I think another world war is highly, highly unlikely. It's now in everybody's best economic interest to cooperate and avoid conflict whenever possible. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but greed is a strong motivator for peace nowadays.
*cough*GeorgeFriedman*cough*
My Projects:
The Neozoic Redux
Valhalla--Take Three!
The Big One



Deviantart Account: http://elsqiubbonator.deviantart.com

In the end, the best advice I could give you would be to do your project in a way that feels natural to you, rather than trying to imitate some geek with a laptop in Colorado.
--Heteromorph
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Adman
Member Avatar
Totally not lamna
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
No.
Projects and concepts that I have stewing around
Extended Pleistocene- An alternate future where man died out, and the megafauna would continue to thrive (may or may not include a bit about certain future sapients)
Inverted World- An alternate timeline where an asteroid hit during the Barremian, causing an extinction event before the Maastrichtian. Dinosaurs, pterosaurs, and notosuchians make it to the present, along with a host of other animals.
Badania- Alien planet that has life at a devonian stage of development, except it exists in the present day.
Ido- Alien world where hoppers (derived flightless ballonts) and mouthpart-legged beasts are prevalent.
Leto- Life on a moon orbiting a gas giant with an erratic orbit; experiences extremes of hot and cold.
The Park- ???
Deeper Impact- a world where the K-Pg extinction wipes out crocodilians, mammals, and birds; squamates, choristoderes, and turtles inherit the earth.
World of Equal Opportunity- alternate history where denisovans come across Beringia and interact with native fauna. Much of the Pleistocene fauna survives, and the modern humans that end up crossing into North America do not overhunt the existing animals. 10,000 years later, civilizations exist that are on par with European and Asian societies.
The Ditch- Nothing is what if seems..
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Scrublord
Member Avatar
Father Pellegrini
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
I'll just. . .back. . .quietly out of the room.
My Projects:
The Neozoic Redux
Valhalla--Take Three!
The Big One



Deviantart Account: http://elsqiubbonator.deviantart.com

In the end, the best advice I could give you would be to do your project in a way that feels natural to you, rather than trying to imitate some geek with a laptop in Colorado.
--Heteromorph
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
LittleLazyLass
Member Avatar
Proud quilt in a bag

Please do not beat that dead horse.
totally not British, b-baka!
Posted Image You like me (Unlike)
I don't even really like this song that much but the title is pretty relatable sometimes, I guess.
Me
What, you want me to tell you what these mean?
Read First
Words Maybe
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Scrublord
Member Avatar
Father Pellegrini
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
What part of "I'll just back quietly out of the room" don't you understand?
My Projects:
The Neozoic Redux
Valhalla--Take Three!
The Big One



Deviantart Account: http://elsqiubbonator.deviantart.com

In the end, the best advice I could give you would be to do your project in a way that feels natural to you, rather than trying to imitate some geek with a laptop in Colorado.
--Heteromorph
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
seascorpion
Member Avatar
Why Can't I Hold All These Mongols?

I don't think George Friedman is a wholesale nutbar, he has some good moments and some bad. Still his belief in a sedond mexican-american war just seems inane.

I much prefer Kaplan though, as far as stratfor goes, his books on the Balkans and the South China Sea were pretty damn good without openly saying "This is going to happen", rather saying "This is how countries are acting now and why".
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Dragon
Member Avatar
/r/GamingCirclejerk is the best subreddit, don't @ me
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Moving things away from that overly discussed topic, a lot of developing countries economies are growing quite quickly. Which countries that are considered developing right now will become actually developed in the next 20-30 years?
"For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life," John 3:16

A neat pixel animation of a future cowboy


trex841
 
Hey, their right to get freaky ends when it goes up my nose.


I think this describes what dinosaurs are like now

Click for something good. Click this too.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Ànraich
Member Avatar
L'évolution Spéculative est moi

I think India is on its way up fast. There's always talk of China but I'm not sure China will continue to grow economically so long as they continue their communist ways. They've relaxed the red fist to be sure, but you can't have both communism and the benefits/prosperity of a free market. Central American nations may see some growth if the plan to make a Nicaragua Canal ever come to fruition. The Panama Canal remains widely used but can no longer accommodate the large, modern shipping vessels and can't be expanded without seriously disrupting international trade.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

Tree That Owns Itself
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Kamidio
Member Avatar
The Game Master of the SSU:NC
 *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *
Honestly, a Northwest Passage sounds like a great idea. Like, a series of canals connecting the St. Lawrence River to the Hudson Bay. I would say that they could then connect the Hudson to the Pacific using the numerous lakes Canada has, but I have a feeling the Rocky Mountains would pose a problem, seeing as they're taller and younger than the Appalachians.
Edited by Kamidio, Mar 4 2015, 12:04 AM.
SSU:NC - Finding a new home.
Posted Image
Quotes
WAA
Online Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
DealsFor.me - The best sales, coupons, and discounts for you
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · General Discussion · Next Topic »
Add Reply