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Geopolitics
Topic Started: Mar 2 2015, 03:36 PM (3,104 Views)
lamna
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I've be thinking about making a topic about this for a while, I did enjoy the discussions in the old The Next 100 Years threads, when they weren't going round and round in circles.

I've noticed two interesting similarities between the two conflicts most in the news, the wars in Ukraine and Iraq and Syria.

With both Iraq and Ukraine you had two nations with large armies that were reasonable well equipped, but when facing small but determined opponent, Islamic State and allies and Novorossiya both armies have failed, floundered and been beaten back.

Now both governments have been forced to rely on small volunteer militias, often with radical political agendas. In Ukraine, far-right and Neo-Nazi groups Azov battalion, Right Sector, Aidar Battalion and others.
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In Iraq, Shia militias, often backed by Iran, such as the Promised Day Brigade, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Kata'ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization.
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Iraq and Syria also have the Kurdish militias and armies, which while they don't have extreme politics, aren't wholly behind a united Iraq/Syria.

It goes to show that God isn't on the side of the big battalions, it's on the side of those that are motivated to fight.

Having to rely on these groups is going push people right into the enemy's hands.

The whole situation reminds me of the Freikorps in interwar Germany, where the government was forced to rely on militias that generally hated the government to fight communists and the Polish.
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I can't help feel that Iraq and Ukraine are storing up trouble for the future by having to rely on these groups, but what else can they do?
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I'd also like to mention Bashar al-Assad's skillful manoeuvring in the whole conflict. By focusing his fight on the Free Syria Army he's halfway to winning this war. If he fought ISIS then he would be weakening himself, and the FSA might have a chance to get organised and supplied by the West.

But ISIS have no possible state backers. The West, Russia, China, India and Pakistan are all united in their hatred of Jihadists. If he can defeat the FSA then the rest of the world will defeat ISIS for him.

The whole situation has been a disaster for Syria, but if he can just survive he'll be in a very good bartering position with the West when he comes out of this.
Edited by lamna, Mar 3 2015, 09:15 AM.
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Another issue that's going to be a major problem for the countries in the region are the Kurds. Assuming the Islamic State is beaten, the Kurds are going to want independence, and there is the distinct possibility that the Peshmerga will use the weapons the west has been giving them to fight for a country of their own. That's the main reason Turkey has been so hesitant to join the fight against ISIS; the Peshmerga will cause major problems for them once this is all over.

Which brings me to another question; could the Islamic State actually take over Iraq, Syria, and significant parts of Libya? It seems people fear that they could actually realize their goals of basically taking over the Middle East and launching invasions into Europe, but I'm not entirely sure about that. And, if we assume (problematically) that's true, where in Europe would they invade first?
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Archeoraptor
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Maybe greek, spain,France or even Italy
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coming soon......a world that was seeded with earth´s weridest
and who knows what is coming next...........

" I have to know what the world will be looking throw a future beyond us
I have to know what could have been if fate acted in another way
I have to know what lies on the unknown universe
I have to know that the laws of thee universe can be broken
throw The Spec I gain strength to the inner peace
the is not good of evil only nature and change,the evolution of all livings beings"
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lamna
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The Kurds probably won't need to fight. They wanted independence after 2003, be were convinced not to, to prevent the Sunnis trying to break away. Something similar happened anyway, so why should they stay? Plus they'll have won a lot of points from the rest of Iraq and the west for fighting ISIS. If they want independence, they'll probably get it. Their will only be fighting if the Kurds and Iraqis can't agree on the border.

Depending on what you count as Europe, they already here, many of the Jihadi Chechens have sworn allegiance to ISIS and have left the Caucasus Emirate. They are fairly unlikely to take over any nation in the middle east. I'm not 100% confident of their destruction, but I'd bet on it. Any attack on Europe would have to be on a country with a large Sunni population. Apart from Turkey, the only Islamic nations in Europe are Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo aren't really suitable as their Muslim populations are largely non-denominational. Additionally, Albania is NATO, Bosnia will be soon enough and Kosovo is host to a NATO lead UN mission of several thousand troops.

If they tried to capture territory in Europe, they would get crushed. They have claimed that they plan a re-reconquista (deconquista?), but that's unlikely to happen.
Edited by lamna, Mar 2 2015, 05:15 PM.
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"A living paradox"
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Do you think that in the future there will be more muslims than christians in europe?
Edited by Archeoraptor, Mar 2 2015, 05:51 PM.
Astarte an alt eocene world,now on long hiatus but you never know
Fanauraa; The rebirth of Aotearoa future evo set in new zealand after a mass extinction
coming soon......a world that was seeded with earth´s weridest
and who knows what is coming next...........

" I have to know what the world will be looking throw a future beyond us
I have to know what could have been if fate acted in another way
I have to know what lies on the unknown universe
I have to know that the laws of thee universe can be broken
throw The Spec I gain strength to the inner peace
the is not good of evil only nature and change,the evolution of all livings beings"
"
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lamna
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This is a topic about Geopolitics, not nationalist dribble.
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Archeoraptor
Mar 2 2015, 05:39 PM
Do you think that in the future there will be more muslims than christians in europe?
Unless ISIS gets their hands on alien technology and takes over Europe, there is no way that's ever going to happen. My advice? Don't listen to any political extremists on either side of the spectrum, they're not exactly objective sources of reputable information.

Something related to the Islamic state (sort of) is Boko Haram. They seem to be causing a ton of trouble in West Africa, but I don't know too much about that situation. Could we get a situation similar in both nature and severity to the one in Iraq and Syria in Nigeria, Niger, and Cameroon?
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Sheather
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It is already happening, through much of western Europe censuses show a steady decline in Christianity as secular ideas become more widespread and simultaneously, increasing numbers of Muslims immigrate to these countries.
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lamna
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Similar situation already. I don't know if it will get that bad, far fewer foreign jihadis are going to join up with them, and they'll not be getting as much financial support from overseas, but then Nigeria's going to be a lower priority for the international community too.

I'm not sure, but I get the sense that the Nigerian government is less eager to than the Iraqi one is for international aid. It seems to me like they want to show they can deal with this themselves. Which is a shame, as this is exactly the kind of thing the African Union is for.

Becoming secular don't mean you disappear Sheather.
Edited by lamna, Mar 2 2015, 07:38 PM.
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lamna
Mar 2 2015, 07:35 PM
Becoming secular don't mean you disappear Sheather.
Not sure I follow.

It does mean that in this respect. It means you're no longer a Christian, no longer checking "Christianity" on that census, and no longer adding to the numbers of that religion stacked up against others. Being born from Christian parents doesn't make you a Christian forever if you decide to break off from affinity with the religion.
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That being said, there are still enough people in Europe who stay Christian that the idea of Muslims outnumbering Christians in Europe is not something that will realistically happen in our lifetimes.

I remember hearing about a ninety something year old veteran of the second world war saying another major war is on the way. Given current events, is there anything actually happening right now that would spark a third world war?
"For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life," John 3:16

A neat pixel animation of a future cowboy


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Hey, their right to get freaky ends when it goes up my nose.


I think this describes what dinosaurs are like now

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Ànraich
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Doubtful. A myriad of international cooperative measures were put in place to ensure such a thing couldn't happen again. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't. I don't see it happening though: war just isn't as good for business as it used to be.
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Yeah, ever since machines replaced humans in much of weapon production, war has stopped being a real source of income.
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Ànraich
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It's not just that, it's the sudden and rapid rise of economic globalization. A war between the US and China, for instance, is highly unlikely because China has become America's manufacturing base, and thus a war between them would be disastrous for both their economies. Russia supplies Europe with much of its natural gas, which in turn provides Russia with a significant source of income. This is likely part of the reason why the nations of eastern Europe did little beyond shake their heads when Russia invaded Ukraine. Consider Saudi Arabia: it funds more terrorism than any other nation in the world, and yet it is allied with the US and even provides military bases for American military personnel fighting the very terrorists they fund. Overthrowing the Saudi regime would have significantly hurt the terrorist groups we were fighting, but it would have also damaged relations and perhaps endangered American access to foreign oil.

This is why I think another world war is highly, highly unlikely. It's now in everybody's best economic interest to cooperate and avoid conflict whenever possible. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but greed is a strong motivator for peace nowadays.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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seascorpion
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I don't put much stock in economic cooperation being a disincentive for war. Prior to WW1, a few notable academics said the same sort of thing about Britain and Germany, and it was commonly held that any conflict would only be short, as the economic damage would be too great from a prolonged conflict for any of the belligerents to 'reasonably' want to continue the conflict.

In practice, once a war starts, they rarely if ever end for financial means when the stakes are as high as WW1 or WW2. Nations have proven themselves to be more than willing to drive themselves into economic ruin to preserve their survival.

I don't think economic closeness makes the kind of tensions that could lead to war go away. It doesn't take away economic competition, territorial disputes, espionage or political competition nor does it seem to inhibit it.

On another note, I view a lot of the action around the Ukrainian conflict to be asinine. I personally am of the opinion that Ukraine shouldn't be armed by the west, and am also of the opinion that the current sanctions against Russia inhibit the peace process by providing Putin with propaganda and a rallying cry, as well as taking away potential Russian economic actions which gives Russia a greater incentive to instead use hard-power in the region. The sanctions are only useful if we want to push Putin into a situation where he can only protect Russian interests with military means, that is to say - they aren't useful.

I don't think Ukraine should be in NATO, I don't think Georgia or Belarus should be in NATO. I think that much of Eastern Europe is far less valuable to America or the EU than it is to Russia, and that extending Western influence into these regions is an incredibly foolhardy exercise in brinkmanship with an authoritarian nuclear power that has nationalist leanings. America has far more pressing issues affecting it's interests in the South China Sea and the Middle East. The EU, as always, has more than enough on it's plate.

China, on the other hand, seems to be acting with a consistent and slow-burning strategy in the Asia-Pacific. Chinese hegemony over the South China Sea is a far way away it seems, but it is more than plausible to assume it could occur in the near future, the Chinese are certainly laying the foundations for control of the region.
Edited by seascorpion, Mar 3 2015, 05:43 AM.
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