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Great Australasian Interchange
Topic Started: Jun 6 2014, 02:37 PM (3,538 Views)
Spugpow
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Australia is currently on a collision course with Eurasia, and, judging from similar situations in the past, this is bad news for its native fauna. The Great American Interchange was an event precipitated by the formation of the Isthmus of Panama 3 million years ago, in which the Laurasian fauna of North America largely displaced the native animals of the island continent South America. The coming faunal exchange between Australia and Asia has been anticipated by the introduction of non-native species by humans, and generally alien species have outcompeted native ones.

But the American interchange wasn't entirely one-sided. A few marsupials, xenarthrans and caviomorph rodents successfully made their way into North America. Similarly, the expansion of native Australian clades like corvids in the past belies the idea that native species always lose.

So the question is, assuming humans don't do much more damage than they already have, what is the fauna of Australia going to look like a few million years after colliding with Eurasia? Which native species might survive or even colonize the larger landmass?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_Interchange
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Edited by Spugpow, Jun 6 2014, 02:39 PM.
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trisdino
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When exactly is this expected to happen?


Anyway, I believe, as most others have said, that the reptiles will do fine, especially the monitors, which are present more or less all over the world. I think that they will keep diversifying, and probably get quite big, at least in certain areas.

Marsupials are hard to say. We all know that placentals have a history of driving them extinct, but on the other hand, modern day marsupials are holding up quite well to the introduced placentals. It is hard to say, but I think that most marsupials will survive, at least for a while, though many will probably have to adapt heavily.

Birds are birds, they will do just fine for the most part. The ones who would be outcompeted probably go extinct long before the continents collide, since they can, for the most part, simply fly back and forth, so contact would already have been made.

Crocodiles would also do fine, as they are already diverse. They would probably already have spread as soon as the continents were close enough for them to swim across, as we already see saltwater crocodiles appearing on costs far away(a while back, one was spotted in Japan).

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Heteromorph
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MitchBeard
Jul 20 2014, 06:01 AM
Yes, I know that Australia's climate will change. This is thing that I am taking fully into account as I think about this hypothetical situation.
Also, it's not a matter of it, but when.
Australia will fuse with Southeast Asia. It'll happen somewhere between 10 and 20 million years from now.
As Australia moves north, coastal western Australia is becoming increasingly arid. It's something that you can plot on a map right now. The southwest tip has a really unique flora, that you can find fossils for all up the coast, but as Australia has been moving north it has been becoming increasingly restricted to the south.
Australia's arid areas are not going away any time soon. Extensive desert and hummock grassland ecosystems are going to persist right up to and including at time when Australia connects to the Afro-Eurasian continents.
Also as Indo-Australian plate continues to push north to northwestish into the Eurasian plate, you'll end up with Indonesia and probably Papua New Guinea turning into a massive mountain range. And where there are mountain ranges, and where they are mountain ranges, there are rain shadows. Oh look, perfect to let arid zone dominators like large bodied macropod kangaroos into the old world.

There are a few problems here. First, Australia is not moving toward Southeast Asia; it will fuse with Asia further north, around Taiwan or maybe Japan. Mountain-building along this margin will not begin in earnest until well after Australia has regular land communication with Asia and has moved deep into the rain belt. Second, after mountain-building does become advanced, a monsoon region, much like in northern India, will probably develop along the Australian side of the margin, barring the spread of any surviving dry-adapted groups into Asia.

I actually do wish I could give a good prognosis for macropods, as I think they could do quite well in the dry interior of the next supercontinent. But the problem is in getting from here to there. I just don't see it.

MitchBeard
Jul 20 2014, 06:11 AM
The other thing you need to consider, which is often taken for granted on this website, is the flora.
Australia's flora are dominated by Eucalypts. Ecologically Eucalypts are essentially giant fire weeds.
The only way you get regeneration of Eucalypt forests is if you burn it. Then you get all these beautiful little euccy seedlings popping their heads out of the ash. Eucalypt actively encourage fire with their oil rich leaves and by just constantly dropping heaps of fuel onto forest floors. Bush fire comes through, cleans it all up, burns out all the competition, unlocks heaps of nutrients and trace minerals which then soak back into the soil with the next rain, hooray for new baby euccy seedlings.
Australian acacias also make use of bushfires. Lots of australian acacia seed can't actually germinate until it's been exposed to searing heat.
This is one reason why Australian eucalypts and acacias have become so problematic overseas. They're giant fire weeds.
Australian's fauna have evolved alongside them, and have adapted to cope with this.
When Australia joins the Afro-Eurasian party, Australia's lovely pyromanical flora is going spread like wildfire throughout the rest of the world, and some of the more successful groups of Australia's fauna are going to be following along after it.

I don't know... adaptation to fire is typically an adaptation to dry or seasonally dry habitats. It is less effective in moist environments where fire is suppressed and insects and fungi are more important in breaking down plant matter.
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Chuditch
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I know this topic is a bit old, but it is part of my area of expertise (Australia) so I'm gonna take a shot at it.

Australia has been constantly changing on a roll or coaster ride of lush rainforests, rich grasslands and scorching deserts for millions of years. Climate change will have no effect on the wildlife. In fact, if it becomes covered in rainforests, we can expect to see even more diversity than today.

Marsupials and placentals are equals. The monotremes have fallen behind, taking up unique niches to avoid competition. Placentals are a little smarter, but that's about it. Also, placentals actually existed in Australia, as fossils of 'condylarth' like animals have been found here. But, the marsupials, as wells as giant reptiles and birds, out competed them. So marsupials have more battle in them than you think.

Reptiles, frogs and birds will be fine, as the fauna between the 2 continents is pretty similar. Also, native placentals still exist in Australia, in the form of rodents, bats and marine mammals. Rodents have not yet taken over the continent, instead evolving into new creatures, like hopping-mice and rakali (water-rat). And the placentals introduced have had no great affect on the macropods, vombatifomes, possums and larger dasyurids. The monotremes are still at the same levels as they were at the time of European settlement.

I believe that as Australia moves northwards, the wildlife and the intruders will gradually find their niches in this new world, and when they reach Asia, the wildlife of each continent will mix, and then a mountain range bigger than the Himalayas will seperate the two continents once again. The animals on each side of this wall will develop unique features. There will be no winners or losers, as the animals will live side-by-side, oblivious that they come from 2 very different nationalities.

Thank you for reading, and again, sorry that my opinion is a bit late. Also, one end note- short-beaked echidnas are indestructible. They live up to 50 years, can lift twice their body weight, make cute sneezing noises, are covered in sharp spines, are half fire-proof, can swim, live in every terrestrial habitat, can dig really fast and don't need to drink. I say we welcome our new monotremes overlords!
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Fazaner
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Just a friendly reminder, people dont like necroposting (posting on threds that are inactive for long time ), what you just did, so try to avoid it in future. And i agree with you, interchange would not destroy marsupials, maybe it could benefit some groups, although some would go down, same thing might happen on mainland, some species might outcompete some placental species.
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Chuditch
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Sorry bout that. I won't do it in the future.
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Beetleboy
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I wouldn't worry about it. Yes, necroposting is discouraged, but at least this was an insightful post.
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Zorcuspine
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I can only speak for myself, but I wouldn't consider this a necropost. I see a necropost as some unnecessary add on to a long dead thread, things like suggestions for a dead project or "is this thread dead?" Adding new relevant information to a general thread like this doesn't count, at least not in my opinion.
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Rodlox
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Blue_Komrade
Jun 7 2014, 01:09 PM
Why would kangaroos be in a good place to expand northwards? If anything they would be trapped in Australia.
They are desert animals and best as desert animals. Becoming arboreal they would face a lot of competition from placental animals, especially monkeys.
tree kangaroos would like a word. (as would all hte non-arid kangaroos)...besides which, it wouldn't crash into Asia as-is, but the climate would change between then and now.

(and not sure why wombats would do poorly - they've got more armor than rabbits, most certainly)

{i never knew this thread existed before just now}
Edited by Rodlox, Jun 8 2017, 04:16 PM.
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The Dodo
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Well, since this topic is active again I might as well add my 2 cents on the matter.

Firstly, it should probably be noted that Asia and Australia have been exchanging species for a while now, particuarly since about 15mya when the Australian Plate bumped into Asia. In fact, quite a few Australian species are descendant from Asian immigrants, this includes most snakes, agamids, goannas (probably), finches and rodents. In addition, around half of Australia's plant species are probably descendant from immigrants rather than old Gondwanan lineages, with most of these immigrants coming from Asia. Though, Australia also seems to have contributed some species to Asia such as passerines, pigeons (maybe) and a few plant lineages like Podocarp conifers which have made it as far up as Japan.

My second point is that the climate is going to be a big deciding factor in this interchange. Despite Australia's current reputation as a harsh dry continent, for most of its history, Australia has been wet and cool. The arid and tropical environments are more recent additions to Australia and have a much greater proportion of Asian immigrants as they're descendant from species which already had experience in similar climates. For example; around 50% of mammals in arid regions are rodents, most Australian saltbush species originate from an Asian lineage which invaded during the Late Miocene to Pliocene and diversified in the new arid conditions, and the tropical lowland rainforests of northern Australia often contain a lot of nutmeg which likely arrived only tens of thousands of years ago. The other main component of these climates are some of the Australian lineages that managed to adapt to them e.g. eucalypts, Proteaceae, macropods, cockatoos, honeyeaters.
Many of the older lineages are generally restricted to cool wet areas. For example; in Australia and New Guinea's tropical rainforests, the greatest diversity of old Australian species (e.g. bowerbirds, marsupials) are found at higher altitudes where the climate is cooler. Also, in general, as you move southward and into wetter, more temperate areas, the proportion of old Australian species increases.

So, based on this information, I predict that as Australia moves northward and continues to enter the tropics, the change in climate will most likely favour the invading Asian species as it has in the past. There will likely still be some Australian success stories as some species have already shown the ability to adapt to new conditions and Australian species have invaded into Asia in the past (e.g the passerines and Podocarps). However, I think the main winners will be the Asian species while many of the older Gondwanan lineages will be particularly hard hit. Though, some of the Gondwanan survivors could find a refuge along the cool, wet forests which are likely to form as mountain ranges are pushed up by the colliding continents.
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IIGSY
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How would the interchange of insects, arachnids, and other terrestrial arthropods play out?
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Swamp world: A world covered in lakes, with the largest being caspian sized.
Nematozoic: After a mass extinction of ultimate proportions, a single species of nematode is the only surviving animal.
Tri-devonian: A devonian like ecosystem with holocene species on three different continents.

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