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Alternate History Input
Topic Started: Aug 15 2013, 09:40 PM (925 Views)
Ànraich
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L'évolution Spéculative est moi

I wanted some input for a couple of ideas for new alternate history projects I've been tossing around in my head. The first I call Lion of the Pacific, which is about a Hawaii that remains independent and becomes a minor, though by no means overlooked, player on the world stage and de facto ruler of the Pacific. That's all on my other computer right now, which is currently off due to a massive electrical storm passing through. I'm still doing a lot of research on it too, so I'll get to it at a later date.

The second, which I would like to discuss first actually, is a recent idea.

Posted Image

It's your classic "CSA Wins" idea, which has been done to death, I know, but with a little bit of a twist. This map is circa 1925, and as you can see the Confederate States of America did not last very long after winning independence. Their idea for a federation of loosely associated states and their continued widespread use of slavery is simply unsustainable, and the nation rapidly collapses. While the Confederate States of America does still exist, it's a shadow of it's former self, and after an embarrassingly quick defeat at the hands of the United States in the Great War of 1914-1921, it's become increasingly isolationist and more and more obsessed with this new "fascism" idea. After declaring independence from the CSA in 1881, Texas started having Dreams of Empire. Continuing the Texas tradition of disputes over absurdly one-sided proposed borders with Mexico, the Texans found themselves in war after war after war with Mexico: and gaining more and more concessions with each victory. They finally stopped when the CSA and USA threatened to get involved in the last of the "Texmex" wars in 1910, but they had already gotten a Pacific port and were quite pleased with the results (although they did bully Mexico into later selling them the northern half of the Baja peninsula, if only to ensure Texan trade in the Pacific was secure). Texas tried to remain neutral during the Great War, but after it was clear that the Germans/French (not sure which side the CSA would/will be on) couldn't actually give them any real support and that the Confederacy stood no chance against the Union, they jumped in and managed to wrestle Sequoyah (Oklahoma) from them before their eventual surrender. After the loss West Florida seceded, having been a haven for Confederate deserters, abolitionists, and freemen since the American War of Independence (the American Civil War; what else would the Confederates call it?). While it dreams of joining the United States, that simply won't happen (there's a saying that before West Florida joins the Union, the second coming will have happened, pigs will fly, and men will walk on the moon). I think the last thing to mention would have to be the Republic of Louisiana, which has an interesting history. See, after the CSA became independent slavery became less popular with each year that passed. By 1900, most slaves had been freed (although most freemen lived in concentration camps, ghettos, or what amounted to indentured servitude), but large numbers were used as forced labor in wharfs, factories, and generally any industry that involved large amounts of dangerous or hard labor. Many were simply worked to death on assembly lines, and the biggest population of slaves lived in New Orleans. By this time most of Louisiana's populace was black, and most of them were slaves. Amongst the slaves a new idea was beginning to spread and give them hope, in fact one could say that the Confederacy was haunted by a specter... The specter of communism. In 1908 slave rebellions broke out all across the Confederacy, and the nation's trade and industry came grinding to a halt. In New Orleans radical abolitionists and communist slaves and freemen slaughtered slave owners and government officials indiscriminately, and the Confederate troops stationed in the region to keep the peace in case something like this happened were quickly ousted. Three years of this saw an independent Red Louisiana and absolute emancipation throughout the CSA, and it's gone surprisingly well for them. While history in OTL has shown that most communist nations quickly become terrible, terrible places to live controlled by terrible, terrible people, this timeline's first communist state had the distinction of being the only one to be founded by people who literally had nothing to lose but their chains. Communism is very dear to their hearts, and they take it quite seriously, although they have to make some concessions about their philosophy for the sake of practicality. Communist New Orleans is actually a very nice place to live... If you're black, anyways. They still appreciate art, and liberty, and free trade of course, but they are rapidly growing more and more militant and xenophobic. Whether this communist paradise will last the next few generations is yet unknowable.


None of this is set in stone, it's basically a general idea. A lot of the dates are just random, I was just trying to build a general time frame for the events I had thought of. I just wanted some input on what people thought of the idea, what works and what doesn't, and if there's any opportunities I missed. Some ideas for where and what to research would be nice too, I haven't done much research for this one yet.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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Aug 15 2013, 09:40 PM


It's your classic "CSA Wins" idea, which has been done to death, I know, but with a little bit of a twist. This map is circa 1925, and as you can see the Confederate States of America did not last very long after winning independence. Their idea for a federation of loosely associated states and their continued widespread use of slavery is simply unsustainable, and the nation rapidly collapses. While the Confederate States of America does still exist, it's a shadow of it's former self, and after an embarrassingly quick defeat at the hands of the United States in the Great War of 1914-1921, it's become increasingly isolationist and more and more obsessed with this new "fascism" idea. After declaring independence from the CSA in 1881, Texas started having Dreams of Empire. Continuing the Texas tradition of disputes over absurdly one-sided proposed borders with Mexico, the Texans found themselves in war after war after war with Mexico: and gaining more and more concessions with each victory. They finally stopped when the CSA and USA threatened to get involved in the last of the "Texmex" wars in 1910, but they had already gotten a Pacific port and were quite pleased with the results (although they did bully Mexico into later selling them the northern half of the Baja peninsula, if only to ensure Texan trade in the Pacific was secure). Texas tried to remain neutral during the Great War, but after it was clear that the Germans/French (not sure which side the CSA would/will be on) couldn't actually give them any real support and that the Confederacy stood no chance against the Union, they jumped in and managed to wrestle Sequoyah (Oklahoma) from them before their eventual surrender. After the loss West Florida seceded, having been a haven for Confederate deserters, abolitionists, and freemen since the American War of Independence (the American Civil War; what else would the Confederates call it?). While it dreams of joining the United States, that simply won't happen (there's a saying that before West Florida joins the Union, the second coming will have happened, pigs will fly, and men will walk on the moon). I think the last thing to mention would have to be the Republic of Louisiana, which has an interesting history. See, after the CSA became independent slavery became less popular with each year that passed. By 1900, most slaves had been freed (although most freemen lived in concentration camps, ghettos, or what amounted to indentured servitude), but large numbers were used as forced labor in wharfs, factories, and generally any industry that involved large amounts of dangerous or hard labor. Many were simply worked to death on assembly lines, and the biggest population of slaves lived in New Orleans. By this time most of Louisiana's populace was black, and most of them were slaves. Amongst the slaves a new idea was beginning to spread and give them hope, in fact one could say that the Confederacy was haunted by a specter... The specter of communism. In 1908 slave rebellions broke out all across the Confederacy, and the nation's trade and industry came grinding to a halt. In New Orleans radical abolitionists and communist slaves and freemen slaughtered slave owners and government officials indiscriminately, and the Confederate troops stationed in the region to keep the peace in case something like this happened were quickly ousted. Three years of this saw an independent Red Louisiana and absolute emancipation throughout the CSA, and it's gone surprisingly well for them. While history in OTL has shown that most communist nations quickly become terrible, terrible places to live controlled by terrible, terrible people, this timeline's first communist state had the distinction of being the only one to be founded by people who literally had nothing to lose but their chains. Communism is very dear to their hearts, and they take it quite seriously, although they have to make some concessions about their philosophy for the sake of practicality. Communist New Orleans is actually a very nice place to live... If you're black, anyways. They still appreciate art, and liberty, and free trade of course, but they are rapidly growing more and more militant and xenophobic. Whether this communist paradise will last the next few generations is yet unknowable.


.
I like this so far, however, I have just a few questions/critiques.

1) How does the Confederacy win, or maintian its independence? The PoD in this case, could be pretty massive in how it effects everything. For example, if this was a situation wherein Britain intervened on the Confederate part, then this could have quite a lot of meaning for how either the Union and Confederacy developed.

2) I have a few tips, not to particularly critique, just things I found useful. To try and figure out how the Confederacy developed, its a good idea to look at, firstly, South Africa, and secondly, Latin American nations which had plantation or exploitation based economies. It's a good bet that the CSA would have developed in a similar vein. Anther tip would be to check out how the South developed post-Civil War, and how that effected the US, for example, several industries and commodities that were greatly important to the US (i.e, Oil) were pretty big in the South. With a divided US, the way either economy develops is going to be pretty far-reaching in what it means.

3) The Caribbean. I think it was Mackinder who said that the Caribbean was effectively America's mare nostrum, and instrumental in America developing into a naval superpower, think of the Spanish-American War and Cuba for example. In this scenario, it's unrealistic to expect the Union to have a hope of becoming a hegemon in the Caribbean, and hence a lot of power, influence and naval motivation is lost, and instead goes to either the CSA or Texas. The CSA has a head start, and potentially aid from Britain, in the area. The CSA might survive as a naval power of the Caribbean. And that means a lot in a time when naval power was essentially king.

4) Does the CSA industrialise? Perhaps the slaves move from the farms, straight to the factories?

5) What type of Communism would we be looking at? Given that it started in a slave population who are, presumably, in agricultural areas, it would look noticeably different from the USSR or most European communist states. I suggest looking at African and Asian communist movements that started in agrarian areas, that might help.

6) Foreign relations of either. Basically, Russia, France, Germany, Spain and Britain could all influence these issues a lot. If the CSA is allied to Britain, and potentially if it fights a war with Spain for example, that could have a lot of influence. A Union allied with Russia, France or Germany is also possible if the CSA is allied with Britain.
Edited by seascorpion, Aug 18 2013, 04:31 AM.
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Hawaii controlling the pacific is quite unlikely, they have a tiny population and very small resources. The only way you're going to have them being powerful is if they manage to play the great powers off each other, like Thailand. When the USA gets a bit grabby, start making friends with the British, when the British start throwing around words like "protectorate" and "most favoured nation" invite the Japanese over for tea. Then when the Japanese talk about leasing Pearl Harbour, arrange a parade for the visiting Tzar, etc.

Quote:
 
3) The Caribbean. I think it was Mackinder who said that the Caribbean was effectively America's mare nostrum, and instrumental in America developing into a naval superpower, think of the Spanish-American War and Cuba for example. In this scenario, it's unrealistic to expect the Union to have a hope of becoming a hegemon in the Caribbean, and hence a lot of power, influence and naval motivation is lost, and instead goes to either the CSA or Texas. The CSA has a head start, and potentially aid from Britain, in the area. The CSA might survive as a naval power of the Caribbean. And that means a lot in a time when naval power was essentially king.
The Caribbean at this time is divided between colonies where slavery is dead (British, French, Dutch and Danish islands), The world's only nation founded by rebelling slaves, (Haiti) and the Spanish colonies.

Cuba was currently fighting for independence, with one of the main goals being the abolition of slavery. So you have the Spanish, who don't want to lose Cuba, Cuban independence activists, who don't want to be a slaver colony, France and Britain, who don't like slavery, or anyone else being influential in the Caribbean, and the USA, who don't want the CSA to get any stronger.

The you have to consider the fact that the Caribbean used to be considered hell on earth. Disease would annihilate troops not already acclimatised to tropical conditions.

The only place the CSA are likely to be welcomed is the Dominican Republic, which spent this period of history trying to stay independent of Haiti. They arranged to be annexed by Spain, and then tried to join the USA. The CSA might find an ally there, but not a very willing one.
---
I think it would be a good idea not to forget about Mexico. It isn't there just to be annexed by Texas. They are a large, and potentially very powerful nation with good international connections. Did you know they had a legation in China, and Mexican dollars were used as the standard during the Qing Dynasty?

They were also very firmly against slavery from day one, which was one of the big problems with the Texans, because they brought slaves to Mexico.
Edited by lamna, Aug 18 2013, 05:25 AM.
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The Caribbean at this time is divided between colonies where slavery is dead (British, French, Dutch and Danish islands), The world's only nation founded by rebelling slaves, (Haiti) and the Spanish colonies.

That's a fair point, I agree with the sentiment. I'm just saying that, in this situation the Union will not be able have the same influence in the Caribbean as the US did in OTL. The power dynamic of the region will be very different. Someone, probably Mexico at this stage, could become a hegemon of the region. Which would be interesting for an Althist, a scenario wherein Mexico has more Naval power than either the US or CSA.

Quote:
 
Cuba was currently fighting for independence, with one of the main goals being the abolition of slavery. So you have the Spanish, who don't want to lose Cuba, Cuban independence activists, who don't want to be a slaver colony, France and Britain, who don't like slavery, or anyone else being influential in the Caribbean, and the USA, who don't want the CSA to get any stronger.

Yeah, I guess the CSA doesn't seem too likely in that situation. I don't think Texas is any more likely either. Mexico seems like a likely contender in this situation. I don't know much about Mexico's naval power at this point in time though. Where is it in comparison to, say, Brazil ?

Quote:
 
I think it would be a good idea not to forget about Mexico. It isn't there just to be annexed by Texas. They are a large, and potentially very powerful nation with good international connections

I agree with this point. Well, actually, I've jut been convinced. I suppose that in this scenario, where the US is divided, it seems logical that already well-established nations and powers in Latin America, such as Mexico or Brazil, would naturally benefit and/or fill the power vacuum.
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Which would be interesting for an Althist, a scenario wherein Mexico has more Naval power than either the US or CSA.
Perfectly plasuibly, the USN shrank a great deal after the Civil War. The fell behind Brazil for quite a long time.
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Yeah, I guess the CSA doesn't seem too likely in that situation. I don't think Texas is any more likely either. Mexico seems like a likely contender in this situation. I don't know much about Mexico's naval power at this point in time though. Where is it in comparison to, say, Brazil ?
I don't know a lot, but I expect it is quite small. If they can remain stable and get a European ally building up shouldn't be hard. This was an era when nation wen't from having practically no navy, to having vast fleets. If you told someone in Germany would have the second largest fleet in the world in 1870 people would say you were mental, and the idea that Japan would one day have the third largest navy in the world would be even more implausible.

Plus the rapid expansion of the Italian and American fleets.

I'm reminded of something I did a long time ago.
http://lamnay.deviantart.com/art/Spanish-War-Althis-144291402
http://lamnay.deviantart.com/art/Red-and-the-Grey-North-America-164165954

I don't know how welcome the Mexicans would be in Cuba, probably more welcome than the Spanish though, but the Cubans would probably want their own nation.
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Okay, so some thoughts on the CSA one. I suppose Texas wouldn't necessarily become powerful and expand towards the Pacific. In fact, maybe losing a little land to Mexico would be better than having Texas become a kind of empire. If the CSA got the New Mexico territory during the war it could be doubly beneficial, as Mexico could regain some of the land it lost in the Mexican-American War. I think it's very unlikely that Texas would outright lose a war with Mexico though, especially since the Union would probably try to buddy up to them after the collapse of the CSA. Perhaps a failed invasion of Mexico and a lost Mexican-Texan War would be the catalyst for a US-Texan treaty of some kind? I'm also wondering how likely it would be that Virginia would remain with the CSA post collapse. I don't want to break the Confederacy up entirely, because that seems unlikely, but I feel like it's still too big. Virginians have always considered themselves Virginian first and American (Union or otherwise) second, and if they leave the USA because that doesn't work for them then it doesn't make much sense to stick with a CSA that didn't work for anybody. Of course, Virginia is where the capital is and there would be a lot of pressure to get it to stick with the Confederacy. It might even become a case of all states in the CSA being equals, but Virginia being more equal than others.

I'll look into what you said, Seascorp, and get back to you about Red Louisiana. That idea isn't entirely fleshed out yet, and I'm not even sure it will be Louisiana that becomes the communist ex-slave state. I only chose it because Louisiana has a better chance at being and remaining an independent nation than most other southern states do because of its geography. Perhaps in the Caribbean it could be Texas that aides Cuba? Or rather, the United States aiding Cuba through Texas? It could be a similar situation to OTL: Texas comes in, fights off the Spanish (although unlike the Spanish-American War this one would be limited to the Caribbean, and mostly Cuba at that), then allows the Cubans to become independent. Naturally Texas and the United States would have access to some naval bases, perhaps setting up a later union/alliance between the Dominican and Texas?
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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Also a note about concentration camps. They are places when you concentrate civilians who could potentially aid an enemy, or join them. The are basically nations in prison, and that's expensive. The CSA might set some up if there is some kind of rebellion and they want to deny the rebels the support of local blacks, but it's going to be too expensive long term.

What you might find instead, are large long term refugee camps, like the Palestinian and Sahrawi ones.

In general, after the abolition of slavery I think you're going to have a lot of black people moving away from the CSA if they can. The locals won't like them around, stealing jobs from honest white folks and all that nonsense. I expect a lot of them would like to live somewhere they don't get treated like shit.

They won't be welcome, and they won't want to stay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Migration_(African_American)
Quote:
 
Of course, Virginia is where the capital is and there would be a lot of pressure to get it to stick with the Confederacy.
Sounds a bit like Brussels in Belgium.

If you want to avoid this, you could move the capital away from Richmond. It's a two hour drive from the USA, and well within the range super guns and rockets. Returning to Montgomery might look pretty tempting. DC is going to feel pretty vulnerable too, and originally the capital was built there to be a neutral location in the rough centre of the country. There were later plans to move the capital further east.

As long as they get to be independent at the end of it, I don't think the Cubans will care who helps them.

Also, the war would likely spread to the east. The Philippines were very tempting target. The was the era when many new nations became powerful and got quite annoyed to find all the best colonies had been taken. Germany, Italy or Japan would all love the Philippines. The Austrians wouldn't say no, but they were busy trying not to implode, and Britain and France would be interested as well.

If you wanted, you could have the Cuban War blow up into a global conflict.
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I guess they would move the capital back to Montgomery. And I got to thinking that the best way for the CSA to win the Civil War would be to not have to fight it in the first place; perhaps, rather than having to fight for their freedom, the Supreme Court upholds secession as legal in this timeline? That way Kentucky, Missouri, and Maryland could all join the CSA as well, giving it a bit more influence to throw around. The US capital would have to be moved though, probably to Philadelphia (which would end up having to be made into an independent district, like DC is right now). As for the black population in the CSA, after slavery is mostly abolished (outside of industrial uses and servants for the wealthy, of course) I suppose they could just be "sent back to Africa." Even Lincoln wanted to do that, so it's not much of a stretch to say that such a thing would happen.

I think the Cuban War of Independence would indeed blow up into an earlier Great War, that's a good idea. The Confederacy would certainly be interested in acquiring the Philippines, since they lack a Pacific port. And the Union would be interested in keeping the Confederacy from the Philippines, as well as acquiring it for themselves since it's on Asia's doorstep. Perhaps the CSA could court the Japanese into a shaky alliance to help them gain control of the Philippines? Naturally they would split it 50/50 (okay, maybe 60/40... 70/30, at most...) as well as throw in some of Spain's other Pacific island colonies. I'm also wondering what will become of Hawaii in this scenario. It would certainly be a prize, and considering everybody who was anybody did business with Hawaii before it's annexation by the USA the Confederacy would probably have some people there too. Maybe the same thing happens, but it's Confederates rather than Unionites that take over and annex Hawaii? I'm sure there would be huge pressure for some kind of outpost in the Pacific, late 19th Century Asia was a fledgling world power's wet dream in terms of trade. I'm also not sure how Texas and Mexico would fit into this. I think that Mexico might become an ally with the CSA , if only to keep Texas on its toes by exploiting it's alliance with the Union. If war breaks out between the Union and Confederacy, the Confederacy would almost certainly lose as long as it's still a pre-atomic era, so having Mexico on their side might make them more comfortable anyways. They'd likely also court the British, so that the Union was surrounded by enemies both to the north and south and across both oceans. Mexico could regain at least a little bit of land during the Cuban Crisis/Great War, probably just southern California and the New Mexico territory (since the Confederacy wouldn't get that region if secession was upheld as legal), but at least they would retain their status as a world power rather than become what amounts to a third world country like it is today.

So what I'm thinking so far is: Cuban/Confederate/Japanese/Mexican/British alliance vs Texan/Union alliance. Who else would come to the Union's aid though? Germany? France? And would the Union ally with Spain, even though the Spanish are fighting for imperialism and colonialism? Or is this war pretty much just Spain vs The World?
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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Perhaps Switzerland could get involved.
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I guess they would move the capital back to Montgomery. And I got to thinking that the best way for the CSA to win the Civil War would be to not have to fight it in the first place; perhaps, rather than having to fight for their freedom, the Supreme Court upholds secession as legal in this timeline? That way Kentucky, Missouri, and Maryland could all join the CSA as well, giving it a bit more influence to throw around. The US capital would have to be moved though, probably to Philadelphia (which would end up having to be made into an independent district, like DC is right now).
I doubt that would be possible, nobody would want to lose half the country.
Quote:
 
As for the black population in the CSA, after slavery is mostly abolished (outside of industrial uses and servants for the wealthy, of course) I suppose they could just be "sent back to Africa." Even Lincoln wanted to do that, so it's not much of a stretch to say that such a thing would happen.

Getting somewhere to send freed blacks was one of the reasons the USA got so friendly with the Dominican Republic, and I suspect the reason they didn't become a State. They'd been fighting a long, hard war to become independent from freed slaves who spoke a different language, I don't think they were keen on inviting more in.

I seem to remember that for a brief time after a war there was an effort to set up freed communities in the USA, DIY Maroons. It was partly successful, but got defeated politically. Ah here we go.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Royal_Experiment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitchelville

Looks like it worked perfectly well, but Government decided to confiscate their land and give it back to their former masters.
Quote:
 
I think the Cuban War of Independence would indeed blow up into an earlier Great War, that's a good idea. The Confederacy would certainly be interested in acquiring the Philippines, since they lack a Pacific port. And the Union would be interested in keeping the Confederacy from the Philippines, as well as acquiring it for themselves since it's on Asia's doorstep. Perhaps the CSA could court the Japanese into a shaky alliance to help them gain control of the Philippines? Naturally they would split it 50/50 (okay, maybe 60/40... 70/30, at most...) as well as throw in some of Spain's other Pacific island colonies.
Confederate Admiral: Yes... yes. This is a fertile land, and we will thrive. We will rule over all this land, and we will call it... This Land.
Japanese Admiral: I think we should call it... your grave!
Confederate Admiral: Ah! Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Japanese Admiral: Ha ha ha! Mine is an evil laugh! Now DIE!
Confederate Admiral: Oh no, God, oh dear God in heaven...

But seriously, Japan wouldn't need the CSA and wouldn't want them interfering.
Quote:
 
I'm also wondering what will become of Hawaii in this scenario. It would certainly be a prize, and considering everybody who was anybody did business with Hawaii before it's annexation by the USA the Confederacy would probably have some people there too. Maybe the same thing happens, but it's Confederates rather than Unionites that take over and annex Hawaii?
But why and how? Britain, Japan, the USA, France and Russia all have closer ports. I don't see how the CSA would get involved and win. The Annexation was a damned close run thing, the Kingdom was very nearly restored. Britan and Japan were very firmly aganst it and the USA wasn't sure about it either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Invasion_of_Hawaii
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1895_Counter-Revolution_in_Hawaii
Quote:
 
So what I'm thinking so far is: Cuban/Confederate/Japanese/Mexican/British alliance vs Texan/Union alliance. Who else would come to the Union's aid though? Germany? France? And would the Union ally with Spain, even though the Spanish are fighting for imperialism and colonialism? Or is this war pretty much just Spain vs The World?
This was the time that splendid isolation was ending. Britain might have ended up allies with anyone, though France is probably more likely.

And the USA aren't going to give a shit about imperialism at this point. They only cared when it happened in the Americas, which they had called dibs on.
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lamna
Aug 21 2013, 04:12 PM
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I guess they would move the capital back to Montgomery. And I got to thinking that the best way for the CSA to win the Civil War would be to not have to fight it in the first place; perhaps, rather than having to fight for their freedom, the Supreme Court upholds secession as legal in this timeline? That way Kentucky, Missouri, and Maryland could all join the CSA as well, giving it a bit more influence to throw around. The US capital would have to be moved though, probably to Philadelphia (which would end up having to be made into an independent district, like DC is right now).
I doubt that would be possible, nobody would want to lose half the country.
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As for the black population in the CSA, after slavery is mostly abolished (outside of industrial uses and servants for the wealthy, of course) I suppose they could just be "sent back to Africa." Even Lincoln wanted to do that, so it's not much of a stretch to say that such a thing would happen.

Getting somewhere to send freed blacks was one of the reasons the USA got so friendly with the Dominican Republic, and I suspect the reason they didn't become a State. They'd been fighting a long, hard war to become independent from freed slaves who spoke a different language, I don't think they were keen on inviting more in.

I seem to remember that for a brief time after a war there was an effort to set up freed communities in the USA, DIY Maroons. It was partly successful, but got defeated politically. Ah here we go.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Royal_Experiment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitchelville

Looks like it worked perfectly well, but Government decided to confiscate their land and give it back to their former masters.


Makes sense. Perhaps the Confederacy would do something similar with their freed slaves?

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I think the Cuban War of Independence would indeed blow up into an earlier Great War, that's a good idea. The Confederacy would certainly be interested in acquiring the Philippines, since they lack a Pacific port. And the Union would be interested in keeping the Confederacy from the Philippines, as well as acquiring it for themselves since it's on Asia's doorstep. Perhaps the CSA could court the Japanese into a shaky alliance to help them gain control of the Philippines? Naturally they would split it 50/50 (okay, maybe 60/40... 70/30, at most...) as well as throw in some of Spain's other Pacific island colonies.
Confederate Admiral: Yes... yes. This is a fertile land, and we will thrive. We will rule over all this land, and we will call it... This Land.
Japanese Admiral: I think we should call it... your grave!
Confederate Admiral: Ah! Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!
Japanese Admiral: Ha ha ha! Mine is an evil laugh! Now DIE!
Confederate Admiral: Oh no, God, oh dear God in heaven...

But seriously, Japan wouldn't need the CSA and wouldn't want them interfering.


I disagree. I was being a bit optimistic about their relationship, but I think Japan would certainly be interested in some kind of military alliance with the CSA. Looking back, it was pretty obvious that Japan was expecting to butt heads with the USA over influence in the Pacific at some point, and that they really didn't have the resources or military strength to do so successfully. Having an ally, even a weak one, directly bordering the USA would mean that they could force the USA into fighting a war on two fronts. The CSA would almost certainly be destroyed rather quickly, but I think it's a risk the Japanese are willing to take! It will at least buy them some time to prepare a defense and put a dent in American military strength. Would Mexico be a likely ally for Japan as well?

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I'm also wondering what will become of Hawaii in this scenario. It would certainly be a prize, and considering everybody who was anybody did business with Hawaii before it's annexation by the USA the Confederacy would probably have some people there too. Maybe the same thing happens, but it's Confederates rather than Unionites that take over and annex Hawaii?
But why and how? Britain, Japan, the USA, France and Russia all have closer ports. I don't see how the CSA would get involved and win. The Annexation was a damned close run thing, the Kingdom was very nearly restored. Britan and Japan were very firmly aganst it and the USA wasn't sure about it either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Invasion_of_Hawaii
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1895_Counter-Revolution_in_Hawaii


Good point, I've read all that for my Lion of the Pacific idea. I think the CSA would certainly have people doing business on the islands... Maybe they would prevent the American take-over and thus their eventual annexation as well? Gain some points with the monarchy and get a nice naval base and trading rights out of it? If Mexico and the CSA are allies then I suppose there's no reason the Confederacy needs actual territory in the Pacific, so long as they have access to the Mexican Pacific coast.

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So what I'm thinking so far is: Cuban/Confederate/Japanese/Mexican/British alliance vs Texan/Union alliance. Who else would come to the Union's aid though? Germany? France? And would the Union ally with Spain, even though the Spanish are fighting for imperialism and colonialism? Or is this war pretty much just Spain vs The World?
This was the time that splendid isolation was ending. Britain might have ended up allies with anyone, though France is probably more likely.

And the USA aren't going to give a shit about imperialism at this point. They only cared when it happened in the Americas, which they had called dibs on.


Fair enough, I guess it was McKinley that got involved in the Spanish-American War and decided to keep everything that wasn't Cuba... Seems pretty imperial to me. And from what I've been reading the UK likely wouldn't ever ally with the Confederacy, simply because the United States gave them more stuff and was a bigger threat. Recognition of the CSA during the American Civil War would have been devastating for them: an invasion of Canada (successful or not, that shit is expensive to defend), widespread starvation due to loss of American food imports, harassment of the British trading fleet on a global scale, loss of billions of pounds in American investments... It wouldn't have been empire crumbling or anything, but it certainly would have set the British back quite a bit and left them vulnerable to other European powers. That being said, I doubt they would ally against the CSA either. There's really no reason to get involved in a dispute between two republics in the other hemisphere.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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lamna
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Hmm, looks like I never did post. I could have sworn I did.

The UK's foreign policy in the 19th century was pretty much to keep out of it, and try to maintain the balance of power. They only got involved in one major war between the fall of Napoleon and the start of the great War, the Crimean War.
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Ànraich
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So since my hard drive crashed I lost all my research and maps related to my previous AH projects, so I've started a new one. I'm calling it A Tale of Two Worlds, and it's more of future history than an alternate one. The premise is that global climate change, the exhaustion of fossil fuels, and the collapse of the world's increasingly-interconnected economy cause a collapse of civilization. Collapse isn't the best word, civilization just kind of fizzles out. Billions die from starvation and outbreaks of disease, and as the sea level rises drastically (over many centuries, of course, but still rapidly in geologic terms) entire populations are displaced and wars break out over sources of fresh water. In time, however, things eventually balance themselves back out. Whole nations are lost beneath the waves, and eventually people live in small, localized communities centered around farming and basically just surviving. This project picks back up after all this, somewhere in the 3500's CE, when civilization has rebuilt itself somewhat.

Teaser


This is what I have completed so far, a single hemisphere, by far the easier hemisphere let me tell you. The borders are based on rivers, which have of course changed quite a bit but are still accurate (source map). It's pretty accurate for a 100 meter sea level rise from what I know, but I don't really care if it's 100% accurate or plausible. The names aren't all that different from what we might recognize today (they will be changed a bit though, to reflect the changes in language that will take place over a millennium or so), but they are not at all like the nations we know today. Many large nations such as the United States, Brazil, and China collapsed into progressively smaller communities, and then were built back up as civilization reemerged from the rubble. Some places, like Omaha and Boise, have had people living in them continuously for centuries, and have emerged as minor powers. The former United States is a hotbed of conflict as kings and warlords fight each other for influence, each of them dreaming of reuniting the territories of the ancient American civilization with themselves as the Emperor. A similar situation is taking place in what was once Brazil. It was the same in former Mexico, but most of it has once again been united, which is why I chose this particular time instead of earlier or later. You see, the reunification of Mexico has prompted an explosion of culture and technological progress known as the Mexican Renaissance.

Without fossil fuels, technology has been, well, all over the place. Larger, wealthier cities usually have an electrical grid powered by windmills or waterwheels. Not a whole lot of power is produced, but considering the largest city on Earth at this point has only 800,000 inhabitants they don't need much. It's mostly used for primitive lighting and the occasional electric tram, though nobility and some of the wealthier merchants have such luxuries as electric stoves, irons, and even toasters. The King of California (who is, of course, the richest person on Earth) even has a radio, though with no broadcast towers it is little beyond a curiosity that picks up static and, in one unexpected incident, a functional numbers station from some ancient and lost bunker somewhere. Most people travel by horse and carriage, or by ship, but messages are sent by telegraph. The knowledge of computers is still around, but without oil the ability to make them has been drastically reduced, and most of them are now analog difference or analytic engines. Mass production has survived in the form of assembly lines, which has allowed some technologies to remain available to the lower and middle classes (things like phonographs, clocks, and other simple things). All in all, things are a sort of odd mix between Edwardian and medieval technology levels, and society is a strange, liberal pseudo-feudalism in most places. I feel like I'm kind of rambling on here, so I'll finish by saying that while all this is happening on Earth, human civilization is also emerging on Mars, which has been undergoing a slow terraforming process over the past one and a half thousand years, and was colonized quite some time before civilization on Earth began to collapse. The people there have more advanced technology, but are faced with incredibly low population (there's 65,000 people total on Mars) and a problem no human society has ever faced: a habitable, yet totally barren planet. The seas are full of life, algae and bacteria that produces the oxygen the humans breathe, but humans have only been able to live on the surface for a century or so, and flora and fauna are limited to human habitats and the surrounding areas: the largest forest on Mars is smaller than Central Park to get an idea of the scale of this problem. So this is kind of a story about two worlds where human civilization has to start over.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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lamna
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Sounds interesting. But what has prompted the rebirth of monarchism? Unofficially it would likely emerge in the sort of society, it seems to be the default in absolute society that the children of the leader are the most likely to take over, but what prompted people with whip out the crowns and thrones?
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If you want to get a good look at how societies rebuild after a major collapse I would definitely recommend looking at The Greek Archaic Age and how they managed to clamber out of the Dark Ages. Often when there is a major collapse yes Kingdoms do take over, but often they are replaced by Oligarchies and other forms as the population becomes more settled down and in more troubled times. The only exception I can think of at the moment is China which even after major population crashes would still revert back to monarchy. The US however I assume would not cling to readily to such an ideal.
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