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[Rant] Why I dislike Space Enthusiasts; Even though I arguably am one?
Topic Started: Jan 15 2012, 11:14 AM (3,275 Views)
T.Neo
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My feeling is that consumption of resources is increasing more quickly than our ability to extract them. The resources necessary to sustain modern civilization and its standards do exist, we simply cannot implement or use them well enough, which for all intent and purposes, might as well be a deficit.


Yeah, that's the problem.

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I don't see that the common citizen will be given a choice in the matter.


The issue isn't whether the common citizen would be given a choice in the matter. The issue is which option one would ideologically choose.

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I had made further mention of my current residence beforehand, but in retrospect most of this was in Member Introductions. I live in Lebanon, and don't be fooled by the apparently high HDI: this only applies to the capital and coastal cities, home to perhaps 75% of the population where living conditions almost equal those in first world countries (aside from the occasional bombing every decade). For the rest of the nation power and running water aren't even guarantees, and suffice to say I am not one of the more blessed "majority". Lebanon is also infamous for having the worst internet quality in the world (we had known this for years, and the BBC actually posted an article on the matter), hence my response times and research may be a little less than satisfying.



I can't help thinking about South Africa when I read that. For one, our internet is pretty bad (at least compared to that in developed nations), and there's an inequality of wealth here as well. Much of the country is undeveloped, and 'third world' while there are places that might as well be in Europe, America or Asia. The difference is that only a minority is wealthy.

Large parts of the country don't have electricity or running water either, but I'm not sure of the exact statistics.

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Whether or not you are more intelligent than your teachers does not mean that they don't have a point. If nothing else they provide you a starting point from which to complete or correct their information.


Of course it means they don't have a point. :lol:

On a more serious note, only very little of what I know actually came from school itself. My opinions definitely aren't based on what my teachers taught me.

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I notice that you did not attempt calculating the weight of said panel. Assuming it is composed of 0.1 mm thin sheets of monocrystalline silicon with approximate density of 2329 kg/m3, the weight of the entire structure would be roughly 16,433 tons, and this is before adding supporting structures. My radiators weigh merely 40 tons before any such addition, and while more supporting structure will be required per area even you did not express the belief that this would range into the mass of tens of thousands of tons. I should also note that the calculated power ratings were for a wet mass of 9000 tons, which suffice to say we have well exceeded.


Your radiators don't weigh 40 tons and the solar panels don't weigh 16433 tons...

You could have a huge amount of mass over 40 tons dedicated to the radiator system. If the radiators take up too much mass, then the system won't work anymore.

The radiators are also far more challenging technologically. Not that it helps when they're being compared with a solar panel 8 kilometers wide, but still.

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Nuclear power is no solution, seeing how you must now bring fuel equal if not greater than that required by a fusion drive as well as the additional weight of propellant (which, if mass ratio is any indicator, is roughly 61760 tons for the described journey at maximum exhaust velocity of 294000 m/s, compared to combined ship and cargo weight of 9000 tons). Would it not simply be easier to use the nuclear power to propel the ship directly?


Mass ratio determines the mass of the propellant. That's what it is there for.

The thrust power is lower here, and the fission fuel is just that- fuel, not propellant as well, so it stands a chance of being far less massive than the fusion fuel required.

If you go slower or select a better destination you could carry far less fuel. With a mass ratio of 1.45 you could a dV of over 100 km/s.

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VASIMIR might provide a suitable predecessor to the fusion drive, but energy, weight and fuel comparisons lead me to believe that the fusion drive is ultimately superior.


Have you ever considered the difficulty and cost of developing the fusion drive? Manufacturing it? Refurbishing or operating it?

The issue with the VASIMR is we're trying to get it to do the same thing as the fusion drive. The two need to be operated differently.

Small scale tests of VASIMR have actually been performed here on Earth. Nothing remotely akin to what is needed for the fusion drive exists. It very literally deserves the label of "advanced technology". The power density, temperature, and material requirements are extremely demanding. It is extremely intensive, and by extrapolation, likely highly expensive.

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Given the length of our journey and the relatively short orbital period of 4660 Nereus (roughly 1.82 years), we probably have some choice in flight time. Let us assume that the MCV is only launched towards the asteroid during the four months when Earth is closest to its projected position. Therefore the Earth at maximum forms a 45 degree angle with the future position of the asteroid, and the asteroid achieves its maximum distance from the Earth when at aphelion - 2.025 AU. Through some basic trigonometry, we can determine that the greatest distance between the Earth and asteroid for said launches is 1.496 AU.


Trigonometry? What is that? :lol:

Perhaps some sort of trajectory plotting or simulation software could help. Orbiter Space Flight Simulator could be a good bet, along with navigation add-ons such as TransX or IMFD, though the learning curve is quite steep.

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The MCV remains the same as before - dry mass of 1000 tons, with 8000 tons of cargo capacity and accelerating at 1 milligee towards its destination with 20% engine efficiency. As determined, delta-v equals 94729 m/s, and time till arrival is nearly 110 days. Mass ratio equals 1.0358, hence 322.7 tons of fuel will be required for the return journey and 47.35 tons will be required for the approach, with an extra 30 in reserve making for a grand total of 400 tons. However, this makes the assumption that the Earth's ending position is relatively unchanged near the end of the journey, when in fact during the near four months of approach the Earth will have moved significantly across its orbit, and its actual position upon arrival will be far removed from that of its origin. To avoid adding extra fuel, the MCV will remain at the asteroid for 4 or 5 months, giving it plenty of time to be loaded and for the Earth to move back towards its starting distance. This way, fuel costs of $0.74 million (with lifting costs of $88 million) and operation times only slightly over one year are made possible.


It is sounding better... now the key is a less demanding propulsion system.
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Whereabouts in Lebanon are you then, if not the capital? Hopefully not to far South or in the mountains, they were bad enough before Assad started his foolishness.


Just my luck, I’m in southeastern Bekaa Valley, right up against a mountain chain, and while this particular chain doesn’t border Syria it connect to one that does. My home is only 10 km (roughly 6 miles) from the border itself, and maybe 50 km from the capital, Damascus.

Zerraspace
 
VASIMIR might provide a suitable predecessor to the fusion drive, but energy, weight and fuel comparisons lead me to believe that the fusion drive is ultimately superior.

T.Neo
 
Have you ever considered the difficulty and cost of developing the fusion drive? Manufacturing it? Refurbishing or operating it?

The issue with the VASIMR is we're trying to get it to do the same thing as the fusion drive. The two need to be operated differently.

Small scale tests of VASIMR have actually been performed here on Earth. Nothing remotely akin to what is needed for the fusion drive exists. It very literally deserves the label of "advanced technology". The power density, temperature, and material requirements are extremely demanding. It is extremely intensive, and by extrapolation, likely highly expensive.


In short, you’ve just confirmed what I was thinking; that the fusion drive is superior to the VASIMIR but the technological requirements place it farther from our reach. The VASIMIR might make for an early propulsive means but once technological capabilities allow fusion drives will take their place. That being said, it would pay to see know how VASIMIR-driven ships would be built, if you care to volunteer.

T.Neo
 
Trigonometry? What is that? :lol:


I'll take it that was a joke. You do understand what I said, didn’t you?

T.Neo
 
Perhaps some sort of trajectory plotting or simulation software could help. Orbiter Space Flight Simulator could be a good bet, along with navigation add-ons such as TransX or IMFD, though the learning curve is quite steep.


I thought I had stressed this in my last post, but I don’t have the internet capabilities to download that kind of software. I’ve seen the size of those download files; up to 129 MB! I have never successfully downloaded anything over 20 MB in this country, and 5 MB is a stretch most of the time. Seeing texts and pdfs is one matter, but videos and even images tax it almost to the breaking point. I’m afraid I’ll have to go without this.

T.Neo
 
Your radiators don't weigh 40 tons and the solar panels don't weigh 16433 tons...

T.Neo
 
And some of the waste heat- nearly 1.7 terawatts- (assuming half the total waste heat emitted is intercepted by the hemisphere) will not be reflected, and will heat the facing material. This heat then needs to be removed. Passive radiation through the hemisphere won't do the trick- you need coolant, and you need radiators. Formidable radiators, radiators that will run at thousands of degrees Kelvin. Radiators kilometers in size. Radiators that could mass hundreds or even thousands of tons...

T.Neo
 
A thrust requirement of 96 600 newtons is far more reasonable, but that's still, if I calculated correctly, roughly 650 gigawatts of thrust power and ~2.6 terawatts of waste heat.

Assuming a radius of 17.7 meters (our calculations roughly coincide here), or diameter of over 35 meters, a hemispherical engine bell would mass a few kilograms over 2 tons. Of course this still does not include the various other hardware required, supports, etc.

The calculation for figuring out the area of radiators is as follows:

A = P / (e * k * T^4)

Where;

A = area
P = power radiated
e = emissivity of radiator
k = Stefan's constant (5.67e-8)
T = temperature of radiator

Let's assume 1300 kelvin operating temperature, and an emissivity of 0.99. This gives us an area of 41 791 m^2. Since the radiator is roughly two-sized, and radiates from both sides, the effective area required is 20900 m^2. Assuming a square radiator, this will be something like 145*145 meters large. If you split the radiator in two (i.e. one on either side of the ship), it would be two roughly 100 meter squares.

20 900 m^2 of 0.2mm (accounting for two sheets between which coolant could flow) thick molybdenum would mass over 40 tons, not including any piping, reinforcement, associated structures, etc, that would be required.

T.Neo
 
I don't know if it could all fit into a 1000 ton vehicle.

Zerraspace
 
the weight of the entire structure would be roughly 16,433 tons, and this is before adding supporting structures. My radiators weigh merely 40 tons before any such addition


As I said – my radiators weigh merely 40 tons before any addition. That’s the mass estimate you gave me for the molybdenum panels, without taking into account coolant or supporting structure. Your solar panels, accounting for monocrystalline panels alone, weigh 16433 tons, similarly before adding any supporting structure. If you’re willing to argue, tell me what both of them do weigh and stick with it, or admit that you have no means of knowing. I don’t know which of your figures to believe anymore.

T.Neo
 
It is sounding better... now the key is a less demanding propulsion system.


Doesn’t building a 64 km2 solar panel strike you as a little more ambitious than 20900 m2 radiators? Once you had the construction technology to commit that undertaking, the magnitude of the infrastructure required for a fusion driven MCV would not only be available but trivial (at least by comparison) - it’s just the technology behind the fusion process that needs development.

If you’re complaining, give me a satisfying alternative. Show me the cold, hard numbers, in the same painstaking detail I’ve described mine to you.
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lamna
Jan 23 2012, 04:54 AM
I've got something that pisses me off about Space Enthusiasts! I just remembered, I wish they'd stop whining about how much better funded militaries are.

The fact of the matter is, if we don't send probes to Jupiter, we don't learn about Jupiter which is a shame, but that's all it is. A shame. If we don't have the very best military equipment, people get killed.

They bitch and complain about governments using space agencies as places to scrape funding from when things get rough, then get misty-eyed at the thought of doing the same to their military.
Aren't most of those people Americans? If they are, then they kind of have a point...

The fact is, our military is really not financially efficent at all. For example, in one year millions of dollars get wasted on unused refundable airline tickets in the Pentagon alone. I know that's just a drop in the bucket compared to military spending, but it's just an example. There's tons of them out there, from small stuff like that to rediculous things like having soldiers stationed in Europe (which I don't see the point of, it made since in the years following World War II but I don't know of any good reasons to stay, especially since Britain is such a good ally and if anything did happen could do more then just hold the fort till we got there).

The worst part? We don't know how bad the problem is. Congress is supposed to be in charge of spending, but even they don't know what most of bills they're funding actually DO. Remember Project Aurora? You'll find it online with a bunch of other conspiracy theories. Really is just another spending bill that lacks any description, just with a cooler name.

We could probably audit the military, cut spending, get rid of excess, and still be as effective as ever, if not better.
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lamna
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Just my luck, I’m in southeastern Bekaa Valley, right up against a mountain chain, and while this particular chain doesn’t border Syria it connect to one that does. My home is only 10 km (roughly 6 miles) from the border itself.

Well hopefully Assad will do something foolish and get the Turks to drop the hammer before it can affect you.

Stationing American troops in Europe makes perfect sense. Europe's fairly stable, but Kosovo could very easily erupt in violence, and American forces in Europe were vital in early stages of the intervention in Libya. Then you have the mess the Caucasus could collapse into to think about.
Even if there is no reason to have American over here now, there is every possibility that we will want them at some point in the future and that will make it much easier if they are already established.

And the British solider is the best the world has to offer, but he's been doing the job of three soldiers ever since the end of WWII. Our army is smaller than the American's Marine corps.

Don't talk to me about auditing and streamlining. It's all crap, big organisations are wasteful, that's just how they are. There is no excess, all you are doing is hamstringing yourself. And don't think it is going to help your space agency, we've been slashing budget for years and our space program is a joke.
Edited by lamna, Jan 23 2012, 10:28 AM.
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Are nipples or genitals necessary, lamna?
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T.Neo
Jan 20 2012, 02:47 PM
Oh no, not one of those arguments... if one says reality and a simulation are indistinguishable, one can pretty much say whatever one wants for anything to be whatever one wants.

Reality isn't what we percieve, because what we percieve is often at odds with reality. This would be the case in a Brain in a Vat situation; to that person's best knowledge, what they percieve would be real. Doesn't mean it is. If you say that it's real just because it is percieved, things start down a dangerous, slippery slope that ends up in a really bad place, i.e. hallucinations are supposedly real, etc...

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EDIT: A good reason for space exploration and colonization would be to preserve the life on Earth you seem to enjoy so much T. Neo. Predications say that by 2050 humanity will require two planets worth of resources to continue living in, well, civilization (modern anyways). See a problem with that? I'll give you a hint, it involves the number of planets humans live on and exploit resources from.


Ignoring for a moment the fact that this is an article from the Guardian around something made up by the WWF, as opposed to say, a scientific publication...

We only have one planet. There is no second planet. It does not exist.

Space colonisation/utilisation will not magically create a second planet for us. The reasons for this have been stressed repeatedly and explained at length. The only way we would be introduced to another Earth of resources is if there was another Earth we had access to- sadly such a planet does not exist.

Also, they're probably assuming utilisation of resources as efficient as what we do now. If modern society used resources with the efficiency that it did say, 100 or 200 years ago, we'd probably be well over carrying capacity.
None of that proves what you're saying. You say the things around us are real because they're real? How scientific... Say! Isn't that how god works?
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

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lamna
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No, God is a proposition that can't be disproved. A bit like assuming we're in a simulation! Works both ways.

In the end, it's philosophical nonsense that does not matter until we can call up the arch or take the red pill.

It's not even relevant to the situation we're discussing. I said any simulation would be insufficient for me, if I knew it was a simulation. And if I was not aware of it being a simulation, why would you need have me on a space station? Why not just bury me in some deep bunker?
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Are nipples or genitals necessary, lamna?
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That is true, we're getting off topic and it is nonsensical philosophical jabber.
We should all aspire to die surrounded by our dearest friends. Just like Julius Caesar.

"The Lord Universe said: 'The same fate I have given to all things from stones to stars, that one day they shall become naught but memories aloft upon the winds of time. From dust all was born, and to dust all shall return.' He then looked upon His greatest creation, life, and pitied them, for unlike stars and stones they would soon learn of this fate and despair in the futility of their own existence. And so the Lord Universe decided to give life two gifts to save them from this despair. The first of these gifts was the soul, that life might more readily accept their fate, and the second was fear, that they might in time learn to avoid it altogether." - Excerpt from a Chanagwan creation myth, Legends and Folklore of the Planet Ghar, collected and published by Yieju Bai'an, explorer from the Celestial Commonwealth of Qonming

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T.Neo
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In short, you’ve just confirmed what I was thinking; that the fusion drive is superior to the VASIMIR but the technological requirements place it farther from our reach. The VASIMIR might make for an early propulsive means but once technological capabilities allow fusion drives will take their place. That being said, it would pay to see know how VASIMIR-driven ships would be built, if you care to volunteer.


The fusion drive isn't superior to VASIMR, only in some respects.

Performance isn't everything. Cost is extremely important, especially in an application such as this.

I am unsure of the way in which a VASIMR spacecraft would be constructed, but the whole thing would be less stressed physics wise than a fusion spacecraft.


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I'll take it that was a joke. You do understand what I said, didn’t you?


More or less. I just have no clue of trigonometry. :lol:

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I thought I had stressed this in my last post, but I don’t have the internet capabilities to download that kind of software. I’ve seen the size of those download files; up to 129 MB! I have never successfully downloaded anything over 20 MB in this country, and 5 MB is a stretch most of the time. Seeing texts and pdfs is one matter, but videos and even images tax it almost to the breaking point. I’m afraid I’ll have to go without this.


Don't worry. I do have the the ability to download the software, I in fact have the software itself, various addons that enhance its capabilities, and a rough knowledge on how to use it. I can help if you would like.

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If you’re willing to argue, tell me what both of them do weigh and stick with it, or admit that you have no means of knowing. I don’t know which of your figures to believe anymore.


Didn't I explain that the 40 tons figure was an estimate, based on a guess, that didn't include the mass of the entire system?

If the entire system weighs over 1000 tons, it still breaks, even if it doesn't break as badly as the other concept does.

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Doesn’t building a 64 km2 solar panel strike you as a little more ambitious than 20900 m2 radiators? Once you had the construction technology to commit that undertaking, the magnitude of the infrastructure required for a fusion driven MCV would not only be available but trivial (at least by comparison) - it’s just the technology behind the fusion process that needs development.


Depends. Do you want 8.5 km^2 (where does this 64 km^2 number come from?) of solar panels, or 20900 m^2 of thin molybdenum plates?

The fusion drive will be far more expensive than the molybdenum plates alone. I'm almost tempted to say that would be more expensive than the solar panels, but the issue here is that it'll most likely be more expensive than other options.

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If you’re complaining, give me a satisfying alternative. Show me the cold, hard numbers, in the same painstaking detail I’ve described mine to you.


I've been trying to get to that point, you've kept distracting me with stuff about proton fusion and fusion drives and brachistocrhone macho trajectories to asteroids...
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@T.Neo regarding the third world: Hmm, well maybe try reading Collapse by Jared Diamond.

http://books.google.com/books?id=mYPXUHZCp3gC&printsec=frontcover&dq=collapse&hl=en&sa=X&ei=2-kdT-n6MeTmiAL6xYDICw&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=collapse&f=false
Edited by Spugpow, Jan 23 2012, 06:22 PM.
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T.Neo
 
More or less. I just have no clue of trigonometry. :lol:


That's not reassuring. :whatever:

T.Neo
 
Don't worry. I do have the the ability to download the software, I in fact have the software itself, various addons that enhance its capabilities, and a rough knowledge on how to use it. I can help if you would like.


I think you'd better. Given the eccentricity of the orbits we're dealing with and the proximity of their orbital periods to Earth more advanced equations will be required in order to progress.

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Didn't I explain that the 40 tons figure was an estimate, based on a guess, that didn't include the mass of the entire system?

Zerraspace
 
As I said – my radiators weigh merely 40 tons before any addition. That’s the mass estimate you gave me for the molybdenum panels, without taking into account coolant or supporting structure. Your solar panels, accounting for monocrystalline panels alone


I repeat myself: the 40 tons account for the molybdenum panels only, not the coolants, piping, supports and other hardware involve. The 16433 tons account for only the monocrystalline panel components of your solar panels, not the wiring and support that would also necessarily be involved.

T.Neo
 
If the entire system weighs over 1000 tons, it still breaks, even if it doesn't break as badly as the other concept does.


That is true, but it's also akin to comparing a car with a broken engine to a car with a broken tire (or perhaps an airplane). Which one is more easily and more practically fixed? There is the possibility of the radiators fitting inside the system, whereas the solar panels as currently described certainly cannot, and even if the radiators don't fit less alteration of the design will be required to accommodate them (seeing how they're closer by at least an order of magnitude).

T.Neo
 
If we take a wattage per square meter of 1300w/m^2, and assume an efficiency of 0.24 (apparently currently achievable) and that the solar arrays are pretty well aligned with the Sun (like those on the ISS, for example), I get a panel that, if expressed as a square, would be 8.4 kilometers on a side.

T.Neo
 
Where does this 64 km^2 number come from?


Last I checked, the area of a square is equal to its side squared, thus a square with side 8 kilometers would be 8^2=64 km2. Upon reviewing your figure, the square is actually 8.4 km on one side, resulting in a panel with area 70.56 km2, leading to a revised mass of 18117.38 tons. The panels alone now outweigh the loaded MCV (not accounting for fuel) two-fold, and the dry unloaded ship eighteen-fold. You would have to drop acceleration down to almost 0.05 milligee just to fit the unsupported panels, and your travel time would increase to 490 days - almost three-quarters 4660 Nereus' orbital period. At that rate you'd be better off with Hohmann transfers.

T.Neo
 
I've been trying to get to that point, you've kept distracting me with stuff about proton fusion and fusion drives and brachistocrhone macho trajectories to asteroids...


That is no excuse. You're posting over the internet, not engaging your opponent in the same room. You are under no compulsion or obligation to post; you can wait weeks or even months and hold up the argument until you get your data.

That being said, I will abstain from all future arguing in this topic until whatever point you have acquired said information.

Would anybody else like to argue physics while I'm gone? :lol:
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@T.Neo regarding the third world: Hmm, well maybe try reading Collapse by Jared Diamond.


Perhaps an interesting read, but what does it have to do with undeveloped nations?

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I repeat myself: the 40 tons account for the molybdenum panels only, not the coolants, piping, supports and other hardware involve. The 16433 tons account for only the monocrystalline panel components of your solar panels, not the wiring and support that would also necessarily be involved.


I know. My point was that the addition of all other required hardware, if it pushed mass over 1000 tons, would break the design.

If you have to cut the system mass in half to accomodate it, it would become particularly difficult to fix. Especially since a system reduced in mass will be more expensive.

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At that rate you'd be better off with Hohmann transfers.


Or far lower rates of acceleration.

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That is no excuse. You're posting over the internet, not engaging your opponent in the same room. You are under no compulsion or obligation to post; you can wait weeks or even months and hold up the argument until you get your data.


Nonsense. Whenever someone seriously suggests things such as proton-proton fusion, or brachistochrone tracjectories, or high acceleration, high ISP drives, I have an overwhelming compulsion to try and explain how these things have problems... :ermm:

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That being said, I will abstain from all future arguing in this topic until whatever point you have acquired said information.


It is more a matter of putting the information together coherently than acquiring it. You have to start an iterative process, set goals, set requirements, set assumptions, etc.

For example, what about the refinement/mining facility on the asteroid? How does it work? How does it mine/refine? How much does it mass and how is it shipped to the destination? What are the limitations of the launch technology? How large pieces of cargo can it carry? Etc, etc, etc.
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The last few chapters deal extensively with the issue.
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