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Probabilities
Topic Started: Jan 17 2011, 04:53 PM (298 Views)
Bcadren
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I ain't no dead yet
Odds per Ticket:

Matching nothing: 37.28%
Matching one: 44.38%
Matching two: 16.14%
Matching three: 1.92%
Matching four: 0.09%
Jackpot: 0.0007%

Odds say that you should match two frequently enough to make profit by constantly buying. The odds of matching three is high enough to see it normally (perhaps once a month or so). Four could happen maybe once a year. As for the Jackpot, I'd be surprised to ever see it.

Margin of Error: 0.18% (two and three should have highest error, due to longest calculation)
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seekee
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I'm wrecking this place up like a tornado of vengeance! Sideways is the best ways! Look out, Aro. You're about to be diago-NAILED!
Out of interest, could you post your calculations and such? o:
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Azuldelish
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And is this on the assumption you're buying a full 5 tickets with 30 different numbers? <<
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Bcadren
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I ain't no dead yet
seekee
REALLY EARLY in the morning
Out of interest, could you post your calculations and such? o:

I did it in Excel to keep me from having to do the really long numbers manually...though for an example, the odds of matching 4 were

Calculation Example
 
5/30*4/29*3/28*2/27*25/26+
5/30*4/29*3/28*25/27*2/26+
5/30*4/29*25/28*3/27*2/26+
5/30*25/29*4/28*3/27*2/26+
25/30*5/29*4/28*3/27*2/26

Winning and matching none where only one set of five fractions. Matching 3 and matching 4 where 10 sets of five. Matching 1 was only 5 sets of five.

If you don't understand my iterations, he's a short explanation. I have to consider every possible order of matching and then add the odds of each possibility together to get the odds of matching that number.

Azuldelish
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And is this on the assumption you're buying a full 5 tickets with 30 different numbers? <<

These are the odds per ticket in a 30 number lottery. For EACH one you buy. The odds for five...would take another calculation this long to extrapolate from the odds for one. But to estimate out of every five tickets bought on average 1 will win something, the 18.15% being rather close to the 1/5 (20%). This doesn't mean if you buy five tickets, you will ALWAYS win 1 of them (that's a longer calculation), but on average out of every five tickets there is one winner. I can do the next round of calculations and get the odds of any five tickets winning though if you like. It'd probably take me longer to organize and make sure I'm doing the calcs in the right order than actually complete them. haha.
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